ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Thursday, May 16, 1996 TAG: 9605160167
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
TYPE: ANALYSIS
SOURCE: JACK W. GERMOND THE BALTIMORE SUN
note: Above
DOLE HAS JUST gained some much-needed distance from the Beltway. But what will he do with it?
One of the axioms of political strategy goes this way: If you are in serious trouble, change the subject.
Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole has been in serious trouble indeed in the past few weeks, trailing President Clinton by 20 percent or more in opinion polls and, more important, presiding over a Republican Party pessimistic about his prospects in November.
Now Dole has changed the subject and given his campaign a fresh start - or the appearance of one - much as the Democratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale changed the dynamics of 1984 by choosing Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate.
As Rick Robb, a Republican activist in Pennsylvania, put it: ``It changes the mix.''
What the presumptive Republican nominee has not done is cure his weaknesses as a stump and television campaigner or alter the context in which the campaign is being conducted.
``Anything this dramatic really tightens up the race,'' said Charles Black, an influential Republican strategist. ``What lasting impact it has depends on what he does with it.''
Political professionals in both parties agreed that Dole now has a different kind of opportunity to make his case.
``It frees him up entirely,'' said Franklyn C. Nofziger, a longtime associate of Dole. ``It changes the dynamics and gets him out of the Beltway. He's no longer part of the mess back there, so he can talk as a free man.''
Several Republicans argued that Dole will feel fewer restraints in making his case against Clinton because he won't have any responsibility for negotiating with the White House.
Mike Murphy, a Republican media consultant, said, ``I think we've finally got a campaign where the candidate can be the prosecutor [of the opposition].''
And William Hamilton, a leading Democratic poll-taker, said Dole would benefit because ``he won't have to have a record from now to November.''
Still, the decision by the Kansas Republican doesn't change several important advantages Clinton enjoys with the election less than six months away.
One is that the economy is perceived to be healthy. Another is that, measured in one poll after another, Republicans are viewed in highly negative terms by the electorate on the basis of their record since they regained control of Congress in 1994.
Said one Republican leader who asked to remain anonymous: ``He's getting away from [House Speaker] Newt [Gingrich] being at his side in every picture, but he's not getting away from the black eye Newt has given the party.''
Nor does Dole's decision to resign from the Senate eliminate a current weakness in his candidacy - his inability to make a coherent case for the kind of presidency he would offer the voters over the next four years.
Although Dole now will be free of the daily necessity of talking about congressional mechanics, it isn't clear that he is prepared to make a more thematic approach to the presidential campaign.
``I think his problems are not related to his job but to his way of thinking, and that's a hard thing to change,'' said David Doak, a Democratic consultant who served as an adviser to House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt when Gephardt sought the presidency eight years ago. ``The hardest people to teach come out of the legislative branch.''
Indeed, many who have known Dole for years wonder about how he will conduct himself without the touchstone of the Senate. Dole himself made a point of saying he was prepared to give up the ``trappings of power'' to campaign full time. But some longtime allies agreed with a Democratic consultant, Don Sweitzer, that ``the only place he appears to be comfortable is in the well of the Senate.''
Others believe that Dole now can show a different side of himself at age 72, something other than the ultimate legislative technician. ``The pictures will get better,'' said Murphy, the media consultant, ``and there is an opportunity for Dole to talk in English.''
Dole appears to face two challenges. The first is to shape the perception of his decision to leave the Senate in the most favorable terms, something he tried to do in his announcement when he spoke of ``risking all'' and having to ``do it the hard way.''
However the decision is perceived, the most important thing for Dole now is to show some movement in the polls so that the story line on the campaign changes from ``Dole trailing'' to ``race tightens.''
LENGTH: Medium: 90 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICS PRESIDENTby CNB