ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, May 19, 1996 TAG: 9605200084
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: WASHINGTON
SOURCE: Associated Press
NOTE: Above
The world set more records in 1995, some good and some bad. The down side: It's hotter and there's less to eat. The up side: People are earning more, voting in more free elections and riding more bicycles.
On balance, says Worldwatch Institute's annual report on the global pulse, despite some positive signs, we're still in trouble.
In its 169-page ``Vital Signs 1996'' being published today, the group focuses strongly on the worsening global climate, which it says is at the root of grain shortages, rising insurance claims and predicted worldwide food price increases.
``In an era of high technology, humanity is suddenly struggling in 1996 with one of the most ancient of challenges: how to make it to the next harvest,'' said Lester Brown, who for two decades has led the environmental research group.
Brown, in an interview, said key weather-related indicators as well as health and environmental data show a world in trouble. But he also cited signs of growing interest in reversing bad trends, including rapid growth in the use of less damaging energy sources and more political interest in protecting the earth.
With statistics from a variety of government and private sources, Worldwatch noted records last year for a variety of what it says are basic factors affecting human welfare:
* It was the warmest year on the planet since record-keeping began 130 years ago. The average global temperatures hit 15.39 degrees Celsius (59.70 degrees Fahrenheit.)
* Insurance industry payouts for weather-related damage reached $48 billion for the 1990s, compared with $16 billion for all of the 1980s.
* The world grain harvest was the smallest since 1988, and grain reserves - the grain available to the world if all production stopped - were at an all-time low of just 48 days of consumption.
* Putting even more pressure on grain supplies, world meat and fish production reached a new high, as demand grew in Asia, where prosperity and population growth are bringing rapid increases in demand.
* Despite global agreements to limit carbon emissions, a record 6.1 billion tons of fossil fuels was burned during the year.
* HIV infections jumped by a record 4.7 million, as the epicenter for AIDS cases shifted from Africa to Asia.
* World population, as it does every year, reached a new high, growing by 87 million, to 5.732 billion, with more than 80 million added in developing countries.
Population growth, however, was 1 million less than it was in 1994, with one of the most dramatic slowdowns in India, and Worldwatch says world population growth may have peaked.
``Forecasters are no longer predicting a doubling of the world's people by sometime in the first half of the next century,'' the report said, but it noted that even moderate growth further spreads women's health problems, overcrowds cities and depletes natural resources.
Positive signs include an increase in annual average personal income by 2 percent, to more than $3,500 per person.
The report notes economic advances in many developing countries and double-digit growth in China.
Also impressive, the report said, has been the spread of democracy. Several countries held their first elections or made democratic strides during the year.
It cited voter turnout ranging from 92 percent in Uzbekistan to 28 percent in Haiti, and, tying together two major themes, noted that ``no democratic country with a relatively free press has ever suffered a major famine.''
Worldwatch views the bicycle boom as another upbeat trend. It cites estimates of a record 114 million bikes built last year, up from the previous record of 108 million in 1993.
China, Taiwan, India and Japan account for more than 60 percent of the total, even though the report notes that some Asian cities are now hostile to bicycles because they allegedly foster a backward image.
The report also cites violence against women, the proliferation of land mines and a rise of infectious diseases in addition to AIDS as negative trends.
It gives a mixed assessment of one world record:
Cigarette production reached an all-time high of more than 5.5 trillion, 50 billion more than in 1994. But people may be smoking less.
Because of population growth, production has actually fallen to 966 cigarettes for every man, woman and child on earth. That's 63 smokes below the peak of 1988.
LENGTH: Medium: 88 linesby CNB