ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Monday, May 27, 1996 TAG: 9605280068
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-1 EDITION: HOLIDAY
TYPE: ANALYSIS
SOURCE: TODD JACKSON AND RICHARD FOSTER STAFF WRITERS
MEMO: ***CORRECTION***
Published correction ran on May 28.
Correction
A headline and summary paragraph in Monday's paper misidentified the
political race in which Virgil Goode and George Landrith are candidates.
They are running for the 5th District seat in Congress.
SOME SAY LANDRITH may be the candidate who needs to make the first pit stop in the state Senate race.
There they were last month, two of the candidates for the only open congressional seat in the state, chatting with reporters at the Martinsville Speedway.
Virgil Goode, a Democrat and state senator from Rocky Mount, talked in his distinctive drawl about the weather and how nice it was to have the boys from NASCAR in town.
George Landrith, the second-time Republican challenger from Albemarle County, fired off sound bites, most of which had something to do with his distaste for President Clinton.
As the 5th District candidates - Gary Thomas of the Virginia Independent Party is a third contender - enter Turn One on their way to a November finish, those in the know say it's the Republican who needs to make the first pit stop.
"George Landrith is going to have to distinguish himself and let people know exactly how he stands on the issues," said state Sen. Charles Hawkins, R-Chatham. "He has a task before him. There's no doubt about that."
"Virgil is one of us," says state Del. Ward Armstrong, D-Martinsville. "His popularity is grounded in the fact that people see themselves in him. If you go to the wiener roast at the local Ruritan Club and Virgil's there, he's the last person you'd expect to be a politician."
Not only will Landrith and Thomas have to battle Goode's following in his state Senate district - which makes up about 25 percent of 5th District voters - but they'll have to figure out a way to make inroads against an opponent who has a squeaky clean background and a conservative voting record that would make Rush Limbaugh proud.
"George Landrith can't get to the right of Virgil Goode. He'll fall off the planet before he does," Hawkins said.
With all that Goode brings to the table, Hawkins was asked, can Landrith win?
"Anything in this life is doable," he said. "But I'm glad it's his job and not mine."
Landrith, a lawyer and former member of the Albemarle County School Board, says he relishes the challenge.
Landrith emerged from political obscurity two years ago to grab 47 percent of the vote against incumbent Rep. L.F. Payne, D-Nelson County, who's retiring this year. Just months after losing to Payne, Landrith was back on the campaign trail again, letting Republicans in the district know that he planned to run again this year.
The wild card in the race is Thomas, a high school teacher and farmer in Pittsylvania County.
In past years, Thomas' bid might not have been taken seriously by Republicans or Democrats. But, this year, the Independent Party - an offshoot of United We Stand, the political organization started by Texas billionaire Ross Perot - was officially recognized by the state Board of Elections. Its candidates will have a regular spot on the ballot and a political network as well.
The party has about 20,000 members in Virginia, and is made up mostly of disenchanted Republicans and Democrats, said Thomas, a former Republican.
The Goode-Landrith-Thomas race will be watched nationally. For starters, it's for the only open seat. And, as a mostly rural Southern district, the 5th fits the demographic pattern of congressional districts that voted Republican in the past few national elections.
Democrats, chomping at the bit to regain a majority in Congress, were more than happy to overlook Goode's conservative stands when they recognized his chances to win the seat.
"Why kick him?" said Farmville's Carl Eggleston, the 5th District democratic chairman. "He's where he needs to be in this district. It's a Teflon coating type-deal. Let's let Virgil be Virgil and let's do all we can do to help him."
The three-way contest raises several questions, the answers to which may go a long way toward determining November's winner:
Can Landrith appeal to moderate voters?
Fifth District Republicans who call themselves moderates will tell you that the district is dominated by Republicans who merge their conservative politics with their fundamentalist Christian faith. The hard right group is strongly behind Landrith.
But, even though the moderate Republican vote appears to be a minority, Landrith may still need it to win against the popular Goode.
"Landrith has alienated a whole lot of people," said James Fortune, a self-described moderate Republican from Campbell County.
Moderate Republicans, who are largely backing John Warner in the June primary race, will either go with Gary Thomas, vote for Virgil Goode, or write in the name of state Del. Frank Ruff, R-Mecklenburg County, who challenged Landrith for the nomination, Fortune said.
However, Landrith's deputy campaign manager Greg Mourad said Landrith will be able to attract moderates, just as he did in 1994.
"Two years ago, George drew together both factions of the Republican Party very well, as well as conservative Democrats. He had to do that to get 47 percent of the vote. George has already proved that he can expand beyond" strictly conservative voters.
Will Republicans, fresh off a nasty convention battle, stay polarized and damage Landrith's chances for victory?
Many Ruff supporters and undecided voters left the convention disillusioned by what they saw as unnecessary strong-arm tactics by Landrith and his staff. The example cited by most: Landrith nominated his choice for convention chairman and quickly put it to a voice vote, killing anyone else's chances.
Fortune, the Campbell County Republican, voted for Landrith for Congress two years ago but supported Ruff this year. After what happened at the convention, he said he won't vote for Landrith again. He's now thinking about voting for the Virginia Independent Party because he doesn't want to vote for a Democrat.
Forest Republican Russell Kropf penned a note to Landrith the day after the party's May 18 convention.
"Congratulations!" the letter starts, "You won the nomination; but in the way it was accomplished I'm afraid you may have lost the election."
David Adams, a campaign aide for Ruff, says Landrith must mend fences in his own party if he's to have any chance of winning.
"George Landrith - and only George Landrith - can heal the wounds," Adams said. "Not Frank."
Mourad says he thinks Landrith's chances still look good.
"It will take a couple weeks for hurt feelings to mend, but I think everyone will get back on board for George. There will always be a few people who will not be on board, and, realistically, most of them probably never were going to support George from the beginning."
How will Landrith campaign against Goode, who is well liked by many Republicans?
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato sums up Landrith's dilemma like this: "How do you beat a Democrat who is pro-gun, pro-tobacco and pro-life?"
Goode holds practically the same conservative stands on the issues that Landrith does. What's more, many state Republicans feel indebted to the maverick Democrat for orchestrating a historic agreement that gave Republicans shared leadership of the State Senate this year.
In fact, it's nearly impossible to find a Republican in the 5th District who will say anything bad about Goode. Republican leaders have even tried to get Goode to switch over to their side, so how can they possibly fight him?
For one thing, they're hoping to use Landrith's name recognition, which may be stronger than Goode's in some areas of the far-reaching district because of the Republican's 1994 congressional run.
Mainly, though, the Republicans' strategy so far has been to say that Goode is a great guy, but he belongs to Clinton's party, and Republicans can't afford to give Democrats a majority in Congress.
In the 5th, where Clinton is terminally unpopular and has been compared to the anti-Christ at Republican rallies, that strategy may not be such a bad idea.
Goode is "going to endorse Bill Clinton and that's going to hurt him, no doubt about that," Mourad said. "But mostly we're not going to be campaigning against Virgil. We're going to be talking instead about George's vision for Virginia and the nation."
Can Goode rally black voters?
Edwin Powell, who was a candidate for the 5th District Democratic nomination, actually sees Goode as the underdog to Landrith. The reason: Powell says Landrith has an energized voting base with hard right Republicans. Powell said blacks - who represent about 18 percent of the district's voters, and generally vote Democratic - could vote in a block for Goode, but aren't excited about the race.
However, Carl Eggleston, the district chairman, said Goode won't have any problem getting support from black voters.
It was Goode who, in 1985, stood in front of a state convention of Democrats and gave one of his most impassioned speeches. Goode's words that day helped Douglas Wilder to the party's nomination for lieutenant governor. Wilder would later become the first black elected governor in the South.
"People aren't going to forget that," Eggleston said.
Which candidate will be helped by the national political climate?
Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole is still lagging behind President Clinton in the polls and public opinion is leaning against Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and the performance of the Republican freshmen.
However, what may be true nationally may not prove true in the 5th.
"The national political climate isn't really relative," Mourad said. "The political climate in the South and districts like ours is still in favor of Republicans and against Bill Clinton, which I think will favor us."
Unsuccessful Republican candidates such as Oliver North and Mike Farris have reaped big victories in the 5th in recent elections.
In 1994, Landrith campaigned frequently with North and gained some votes from riding North's coattails. This year, Landrith will have to run on the same ballot as Dole - a candidate many Republicans feel lukewarm about.
Will Gary Thomas be a factor?
It's hard to get a handle on the impact that the Virginia Independent Party will have in its first year on the ballot. Sabato says Thomas could benefit from a coattail effect depending upon whom the national Reform Party - also an offshoot of United We Stand - runs as its presidential candidate.
Thomas could also benefit or swing the election in another candidate's favor if disenchanted Republicans and Democrats turn to him as an alternative.
"That's why I'm running, " he said. "I knew the Republican leadership was too far to the right. If you're a moderate, I'm your candidate."
LENGTH: Long : 193 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: (headshots) Goode, Landrith, Thomas. color. KEYWORDS: POLITICS CONGRESSby CNB