ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, May 31, 1996 TAG: 9605310059
SECTION: NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: TEL AVIV
SOURCE: The Boston Globe
NOTE: Lede
A fiercely divided Israel stood nervously at the edge of a new political era Thursday, with the near certainty that Benjamin Netanyahu had won an upset victory to become the country's new prime minister.
With all votes counted except for 150,000 absentee ballots from soldiers, hospital patients and officials abroad, the Likud chairman had 50.3 percent of the vote compared with 49.6 percent for Prime Minister Shimon Peres with every indication the margin would hold.
The prospect of an abrupt end to the land-for-peace deals with Arabs championed by Peres and the rise of a Likud-ruled coalition that includes some of Israel's best-known hawks, as well as a large religious contingent, reflects a deep split over the peace process and the future shape of Israeli society.
``Intellectuals, businessmen and many others just feel so alienated from the new government, especially with 24 members of religious parties having made it into the Knesset,'' lamented Avner Cohen, who returned home from his research post at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to vote for Peres. ``There is an enormous sense of mourning, a deep sense that we lost the country.''
Leah Rabin, widow of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, whose assassination in November led to this week's election, was so shaken by an impending Netanyahu victory that she told Israel television she has her eye on her suitcases and thinks only about leaving.
But the majority of Israelis believed that the Labor government, first under Rabin and then under Peres, was moving too quickly, making too many concessions with insufficient guarantees from the other side. While Netanyahu aides were quick Thursday to say he will not abandon the peace process, his supporters have made equally clear that they want him to place their security first. That concern was further highlighted Thursday with the news from Lebanon that a new ambush had killed four Israeli soldiers.
Both Netanyahu, the 46-year-old former ambassador to the United Nations, and Peres, 72, maintained their silence Thursday, with aides saying they thought it inappropriate to comment before the results were final.
Although there existed a chance that mail-in ballots, to be counted today, would swing the race back to Peres, Professor Ira Sharkansky of Jerusalem's Hebrew University summed up the prevailing view by saying: ``In this country we have seen miracles. But it would take a miracle of biblical proportions to give the victory to Peres.''
Netanyahu's lead was expected to hold because soldiers, who make up most of the uncounted vote, tend to lean to the right and also because he held an 11 percent lead among Israel's Jews - Peres won heavily among Israel's Arabs - and nearly all the remaining votes were from Jews.
Netanyahu aides insisted that he considers the pursuit of peace paramount and has every intention of fulfilling commitments made to Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat regarding the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
It was unclear if that included a redeployment in Hebron, one of Judaism's holiest cities and site of enormous Palestinian-Jewish tension. In the past, Netanyahu has said he would not withdraw Israeli soldiers from there just as he would not allow formation of a Palestinian state.
The looming victory of Netanyahu was not the only far-reaching change signaled by the election returns. For the first time, Israelis voted separately for prime minister and for the Knesset, or parliament, leaving them more inclined to express their preference for smaller parties.
As a result, the new 120-member Knesset looks radically different from the existing one with both Labor and Likud having lost nine to 10 seats each, religious parties having gained considerably and the pro-immigrant party of Natan Sharansky taking seven seats. A centrist party called the Third Way took four.
This means that Netanyahu is likely to include large religious blocs in his ruling coalition to reach his needed 61-seat majority. Leading candidates are the National Religious Party and Shas, each with 10 seats, and United Torah Judaism with four.
The likely result will be more power for religious parties in determining such things as the nature of public education in Israel and possibly bus service.
Palestinians understood that Netanyahu's adamant opposition to an independent Palestinian state meant their long-term goal was now, at least temporarily, out of reach and that could lead to increased disaffection.
``The people might rebel against their authority and there could be an increase in violence,'' predicted Khalil Shikaki, director of the Center for Palestinian Research and Studies in the West Bank city of Nablus.
The Clinton administration had close relations with governments of Rabin and Peres and had invested vast resources in the peace process pursued by them. Netanyahu's victory would be a keen disappointment for the administration, which, nonetheless, vowed to work with him to pursue peace.
Harry Wall, Israel representative of the Anti-Defamation League, said he thought Netanyahu would likely put together a government supported by American Jews and continue close ties to the administration. Wall predicted Netanyahu would respect the accords with Palestinians and end up being more moderate than many suspect.
He gave as an example Menachem Begin, Israel's first right-wing prime minister, who made peace with Egypt. But Wall acknowledged that the roles of Rafael Eitan and Ariel Sharon, two hard-line former generals closely allied with Netanyahu, are still to be determined.
Netanyahu has said he will close PLO offices in Jerusalem and push Palestinians to ``keep their obligations'' under the peace accord. He says the Israeli military will have freedom of action against Palestinian terrorists, even within areas controlled by Arafat.
It is hard to imagine Arafat accepting such Israeli military intervention and still maintaining cordial relations with Netanyahu, who until recently insisted he would refuse to meet Arafat at all.
Netanyahu nonetheless maintains that he will offer Palestinians full autonomy in everything except security. As to Syria, he says he will not return the strategic Golan Heights, but would lobby to remove Syria from the U.S. list of states sponsoring terrorism if Damascus stops the activities of Hezbollah guerrillas in south Lebanon.
Thursday, four Israeli soldiers were killed in Hezbollah attacks in south Lebanon, the Israeli army reported. The explosions, 15 minutes apart, heightened tension along Israel's northern frontier as the country waited for the final result of the elections.
Elsewhere, it also seems unlikely that Syrian President Hafez Assad will consider Netanyahu's offer especially attractive.
What is remarkable is how the weight of the Clinton administration, the unsubtle hints of the Arab world and virtually the entire international community rooting for a Peres victory failed to push him over the top. This has led to a great deal of soul-searching in Israel.
LENGTH: Long : 123 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: (headshot) Shimon Peres\Too many concessions? color.by CNB