ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Thursday, July 18, 1996 TAG: 9607180043
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-11 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: RAY L. GARLAND
THERE ARE few among us concerned about next year's races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general. But one who has spent many months worrying about them is Coleman Andrews, an old Richmonder transplanted to Fairfax County, who hopes to win the Republican nod for second banana on a ticket almost certain to be headed by GOP Attorney General James Gilmore.
While the race is young, Andrews is a man to watch. If the governorship figures in his future - and nobody runs for second spot without that as the ultimate goal - his credentials suggest he's fully prepared. In fact, no recent figure in either party can claim comparable experience leading a large and complex organization.
Well beneath public radar, both parties are girding their loins for 1997. It is believed that four-term Southside Rep. L.F. Payne is leaving Congress in order to play Horatio to Don Beyer's Hamlet on the Democratic ticket. The idea is the ersatz conservative Payne will shore up the genuinely liberal Beyer in rural Virginia, where Democrats took a beating in 1993. Del. Jerrauld Jones of Norfolk is said to be pondering a race for attorney general on the same ticket.
Jones is an impressive legislator. If he offers, it will be hard for the Democratic Party - which owes so much to black voters - to say him nay. While Jones hasn't the star quality that propelled Doug Wilder to successive victories for statewide office, he does seem cast in the former governor's mold.
The Republican race was jolted by the abrupt withdrawal of Richard Cullen from consideration as the party's nominee for attorney general. Cullen, a high-cotton Richmond lawyer who headed Gov. George Allen's commission on sentencing and parole reform, had seemed to be angling for a statewide run since Hector was a pup. But out of the blue he said, in effect, the game wasn't worth the candle. That would appear to give state Sen. Ken Stolle of Virginia Beach the inside track for the No. 3 slot on the GOP ticket.
While Andrews appears to have the lead for lieutenant governor, he is opposed by John Hager of Richmond, long active in GOP affairs, and Del. Jay Katzen of Fauquier County. Andrews has raised the most money, an astonishing $612,000 in the most recent report, compared to only $203,000 for Hager. Andrews has also been endorsed by nine of 11 congressional district chairmen and 58 unit chairs representing more than half the state's population. This indicates broad and deep support in the party's apparatus.
Such support would be critical in the retail politics of a nominating convention, which Andrews and the others assumed would be the method chosen. Certainly, the GOP hierarchy favors a convention, which flatters the regulars and raises money for party coffers.
Relying on convention fees to raise money may be a legitimate tool of party-building. But Virginia Republicans went a bit too far in 1994 to pass muster with the U.S. Supreme Court. Given the court's pronouncement against mandatory fees, which are necessary to defray the sizable cost of organizing a convention, the present thinking is the party should avoid the problem by going to a primary.
As said here several weeks ago, primaries have a decidedly mixed record of producing winners and create special problems of their own, notably their high cost to both candidates and taxpayers. As Jim Miller recently demonstrated, you can't be a serious player in a contested primary for much under $2 million. But the June senatorial primary undoubtedly produced the party's most electable candidate in Sen. John Warner. It also showed the depth of support that can be tapped, though nothing of that magnitude should be expected next year.
With the GOP nomination for governor unlikely to be contested, you would have neither the candidates nor the voter interest to equal the Warner-Miller race. But a primary victory should still carry greater weight than a convention, and the winners will have pitched their message to the whole electorate and not merely the 10,000 who might file as delegates.
Andrews kindly stopped by Cifax for a lengthy chaw last year, and I recently heard him address supporters in Lynchburg. That he could attract 100 people to pay for their own lunch on a Tuesday in July was impressive. While hardly an electrifying speaker, he has the calm and pleasant manner that is suitable for the electronic age. I was more impressed by his MBA from Stanford and his career as president of WorldCorp, a Virginia business with 800 employees and sales exceeding $250 million. WorldCorp is the parent of World Airways and U.S. Order, a publicly traded software company serving VISA.
Business people turning their hand to politics often fall flat. But Andrews comes of an old political family and seems to understand both games, which is a nice combination and hard to find. His grandfather headed the Internal Revenue Service for President Eisenhower, and his father represented Richmond in the House of Delegates as a Democrat from 1960 to 1966.
A proper triangle seems the best recipe for a statewide ticket. Northern Virginians, who think little of the rest of the state and assume it feels the same way about them, like to see one of their own on the ballot. A ticket that links the Richmond Metro with Northern Virginia and Tidewater is a good beginning, though it may be too urban for some tastes. Republicans would have that with Gilmore, who lives in Henrico County, Andrews and Stolle.
Of course, Lt. Gov. Beyer is also strongly identified with Northern Virginia, and it is the top of the ticket that pulls the wagon. But Andrews might give the GOP some bragging rights among those multitudes north of the Occoquan. It's hard to see anybody else doing it.
Well, it's a long way off and likely to be influenced by events beyond the control of the candidates. For example, which party wins the White House. Not since 1973 have Republicans won the governorship while their party held the doubtful asset of the presidency. And Democrats haven't done it since 1965! So, Beyer should pray for Dole while Gilmore longs for Clinton.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times columnist.
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