ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, August 7, 1996 TAG: 9608070042
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: B6 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: DETROIT
SOURCE: ALAN L. ADLER KNIGHT-RIDDER/TRIBUNE
That adage about not buying a new car in its first model year turns out to be true.
An analysis of 74 vehicle launches by major automakers from 1989-1996, by J.D. Power and Associates, shows that a new model's first year almost always is its worst in terms of problems.
The situation is only slightly rougher for domestics than imports, suggesting that conventional wisdom about Japanese car companies doing a better job of starting new model production isn't always true. They look better because they have better overall initial quality.
``The Japanese and domestic manufacturers really are facing the same problems,'' Chance Parker, director of product research for the California-based marketing research firm, said at a University of Michigan automotive management seminar Tuesday.
The study showed that in nearly all cases, the quality of the new car or truck was better in its second year of production than in the first, and usually was better than the model it replaced.
Quality was determined by using results of Power's industry standard Initial Quality Studies, based on the number of problems reported by consumers after 90 days of ownership.
Of 14 models replaced by General Motors in the study period, 10 started with worse quality ratings than the models they replaced, and 12 had quality below the industry average. But most had better quality one year after launch. One of two totally new models started with above-average quality. Both had better quality one year after launch.
GM's launches since 1993 have shown marked improvement, Parker said. That's due in part to the snail's pace of many launches, like the 1995 Chevrolet Cavalier and Pontiac Sunfire, which did not reach full production for more than nine months.
``We've seen some really big changes with GM in the last three years,'' Parker said. ``Clearly the spike of problems at launch has disappeared. But the issue for GM may be sustainability.''
The Cavalier had 108 problems per 100 cars in the year it was launched, but the number soared to 148 things gone wrong per 100 cars in Power's most recent Initial Quality Study. Both figures were above the car industry average.
At Ford, a spike in quality problems tended to show up a year before the new model came out. Parker suggested this could be because so much emphasis was placed on the new model that quality slipped on the existing model.
``It happened in every Ford launch we tracked since 1993,'' he said.
Ford, which boasted that its new generation Ford Taurus would have better initial quality than the industry benchmark Toyota Camry, had to swallow hard in May when the new Taurus scored far lower than Camry and well below the Taurus it replaced.
Of Ford's 13 relaunched and replaced models, seven started with worse quality than the previous generation. But a chart of its new vehicle launches does not show the spike of problem common to other automakers - in part because the number of problems is so high in the year before the launch.
``That sounds like a system problem,'' said Bernie Muench, a retired Ford executive and now a supplier consultant.
At Chrysler, three of five models replaced had worse quality than what they were replacing. The new minivans may have too, but the vehicle was launched outside the window during which Power collects its quality survey information, so Power can draw only from anecdotal reports.
The quality ``blip'' at new model launches is still very noticeable at Toyota and Honda, Parker said. No manufacturer has whipped the problem yet.
LENGTH: Medium: 70 linesby CNB