ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Saturday, August 17, 1996 TAG: 9608190032
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: A-6 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: NEW YORK
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS
Valerie Price raises four children alone, has enrolled in cosmetology school and plods the streets daily in search of a part-time job.
If that search is any guide to what's out there now for welfare recipients like Price, they are confronting a bleak future.
Legislation passed by Congress in early August will flush a torrent of additional low-skilled or unskilled people into the job market.
President Clinton has said he will sign legislation that limits welfare benefits to five years and forces able-bodied adults to work after two years.
``This is the center hole, the big black hole of the welfare bill: The jobs are not there,'' said Chuck Loveless, a legislative aide to the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.
Price, 36, has been on public assistance since April 1995. Mostly she looks for work at beauty-supply merchants and hair salons that might need an extra hand selling or cleaning up during the afternoons or weekends.
Many proprietors, she said, prefer to hire full-time help at below-minimum wage and pay cash.
Still, she tries to be optimistic. ``You've got to see yourself in the position where you want to be, and someday you'll get there.''
Even if she finds work, the welfare overhaul ironically could threaten her future employment security.
``This would be a tremendous pressure on low-wage jobs, probably pushing the wages even lower,'' said Audrey Freedman, a labor economist who runs her own consulting firm.
Others say the U.S. economy could readily absorb a bigger labor force.
``This economy would easily accommodate them,'' said Donald Ratajczak, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University in Atlanta. ``They could very well show up for all the places that say they are hiring now, to bag groceries, serve hamburgers, any number of things.''
Still, about 4.8million adults currently receive federal public assistance. Most are unskilled. Many never have worked, or have mental or physical health problems, or have children or parents who need care.
Other powerful economic forces could hamper efforts by welfare recipients to find work. Perhaps the biggest is the Federal Reserve.
Many economists believe the Fed is close to raising rates to slow economic growth and thwart inflation by making the cost of borrowing money go up. That will likely hurt businesses and reduce the number of jobs - just as people on welfare rolls are forced to seek work.
Furthermore, welfare overhaul coincides with a new law to raise the minimum wage, which could reduce the already dwindling number of jobs available to the unskilled. The North American Free Trade Agreement also is narrowing employment opportunities by shifting more low-paying jobs to Mexico.
``I don't feel over-sympathetic about certain situations,'' said Mozella Richardson, a 22-year-old mother of two who attends the City College of New York and works there as an office assistant. ``But if you're trying to do something to better yourself, then they should help you do it,'' she said. ``Then you make the choice if you're going to succeed or not.''
LENGTH: Medium: 64 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: AP. Mozella Richardson, 22, with her son Novel in Newby CNBYork City, recently got off welfare to work and take college
classes.