ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, August 23, 1996 TAG: 9608230078
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: B-5 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: RICHMOND
SOURCE: Associated Press
DESPITE INCUMBENTS' long record of success, challengers could have a chance if national trends favor one party or the other, said one political scientist.
During the past 50 years, seeking re-election to the House of Representatives has been about as close as it gets to a sure thing in Virginia politics. House incumbents won new terms 94 percent of the time.
So why would Orange County lawyer Roderic H. Slayton want to run against the state's most entrenched and powerful House member, Commerce Committee Chairman Thomas Bliley, R-Richmond?
``I think there's some dissatisfaction with his representation. I disagree with him on most issues, and somebody needs to take him on,'' said Slayton, a Democrat.
Slayton is not alone. Nine of the state's 10 House members seeking re-election have major party challengers this year. One congressman, Rep. L.F. Payne, D-Nelson County, is retiring.
The challengers start well behind the incumbents in money and name recognition and often run in districts that consistently favor candidates of the incumbent's party.
Bliley's 7th District is one of the most reliably Republican in the state. And Slayton has campaigned against tobacco interests in a district many employees of Philip Morris Co. call home.
``They're going to vote for Bliley, no matter what I say,'' Slayton said. Slayton proposes a 25 percent increase in the federal tax on tobacco products to pay for the costs of tobacco-related diseases. Bliley has been an outspoken advocate of the tobacco industry during his 16 years on Capitol Hill.
Another challenger to a long-term incumbent is Patrick Muldoon, a law student at the College of William and Mary. He is challenging Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Abingdon, in the 9th District.
``Over the years, we've put up a few candidates, and sometimes we haven't. I wasn't going to let that happen again,'' said Muldoon, a Republican who grew up in Giles County.
Two challengers are trying again to oust incumbents who trounced them the first time around, and a third is making a comeback attempt for an open seat.
Democrat Robert Weinberg lost to Rep. Frank Wolf, R-Fairfax County, by a 2-to-1 ratio in 1988. Wolf beat another Democrat just as badly in 1992 and had no Democratic opponent two years ago.
``Democrats are sorry that they gave him a free ride once, and they won't do it again,'' said Weinberg, a longtime party activist. He's trying to link Wolf to House Speaker Newt Gingrich with the slogan, ``The Republican incumbent is a Newt in Wolf's clothing.''
Republican Anthony Zevgolis is trying again after getting 32 percent of the vote against 4th District Rep. Norman Sisisky, D-Petersburg, four years ago.
``We just did not have the funds,'' Zevgolis said. ``I'm sure that we could very well run into the same thing this time.''
Zevgolis said he's frustrated by the lack of interest in congressional races in Virginia, where much of the political talk already is about next year's race for governor.
``People tend to forget that we have congressional races,'' he said. ``A majority of programs come down from the federal government, and yet we don't seem in Virginia to put enough emphasis on our congressional campaigns.''
Despite incumbents' long record of success, challengers could have a chance if national trends favor one party or the other, said John T. Whelan, a University of Richmond political scientist.
``Incumbents in Virginia, as elsewhere, remain a formidable lot. Consequently, most successful congressional aspirants must bide their time for an opening of some sort,'' Whelan concluded in a study of Virginia congressional races.
This year's only race without an incumbent is likely to be the most closely fought.
In the 5th District, Republican George Landrith and state Sen. Virgil Goode, D-Rocky Mount, are vying to replace Payne. Payne is pondering a race for lieutenant governor next year.
Landrith got 47 percent of the vote against Payne in 1994. Goode has long been popular in his district.
LENGTH: Medium: 81 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICS CONGRESSby CNB