ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, August 28, 1996 TAG: 9608280087
SECTION: CURRENT PAGE: NRV-1 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
SOURCE: MARK CLOTHIER STAFF WRITER
A recent USA Today story touts Blacksburg as a potential "Podunk no more" town that, with a little luck, might reach the coveted 50,000 population mark in coming years.
Cities with populations greater than 50,000, or smaller cities with at least 25,000 people located in counties with at least 100,000 residents, become official metropolitan statistical areas.
MSA status allows an area to trade its "Podunk" status for automatic federal funding and serious consideration from national marketers.
The Thursday USA Today cover story listed the top 14 small cities considered "sure-fire" candidates to become metro areas in the 2000 census. Then it listed another 40 towns and cities - including Blacksburg and Harrisonburg - that could get there if their growth outpaces expectations.
The national trend is for a population shift away from crowded cities and suburbs and toward smaller, more rural communities with a better quality of life, USA Today reported. The trend mirrors the economy's turn away from manufacturing, and toward high-tech and service industries. University towns, in particular, are the beneficiaries.
Officials in Blacksburg - population 35,000 including 24,000 Virginia Tech students - say it's unlikely the town will grow by 15,000 in the next four years, nor is it likely the town will annex.
But, said Town Manager Ron Secrist, Blacksburg - more specifically Montgomery County - is doing just fine in the eyes of national marketers. Not because of a predetermined population plateau but because of demographics.
Some 47 percent of the county's population falls between age 18 and 35, prime target markets for franchise restaurants and retail stores.
The 1990 census counts Montgomery County's population at 73,913. Of those, some 34,965 are between the ages of 18 and 35. For comparison, 30 percent of Virginia's population falls into the same age bracket, based on 1990 census figures.
It's that young demographic - the Seinfeld-watchers - that Secrist said causes the Montgomery County area to materialize on computer screens of national retail chain location hunters.
"We have very popular demographics," he said. "This 18- to 35-year-old element is who will go out and spend their disposable income. They may not have a lot, but what they've got they spend."
Secrist said national retailers have little interest in town boundaries, which explains why most of the franchise growth has been focused in northern Christiansburg around the intersection of U.S. 460 and Peppers Ferry Road. Market area is the key and any locality with a population of more than 80,000 is in the game.
"You've got to have the population and Montgomery County does," he said. "Then you look at the demographics and we've become very, very prime in that context. I get calls all the time. Literally. There are lots of folks asking and looking. They track these things, it shows up as another developing market that hasn't yet been saturated and they say, let's go look."
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