ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, September 15, 1996 TAG: 9609180011
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: 3 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DONALD NUECHTERLEIN
RUSSIA'S decision to withdraw its troops from rebellious Chechnya and its complaint that Washington failed to consult with Moscow before launching its missile attacks against Iraq points to this new reality: Five years after the dissolution of the mighty Soviet Union, Russia may no longer be viewed as a major player on the world stage.
The political fallout in Russia could present serious problems for U.S. interests.
First, Russia's humiliation gives the nationalists and communists, who came close to defeating Boris Yeltsin for re-election in June, a potent political weapon. Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov condemned the government's decision to withdraw Russian troops from Chechnya's capital, Grozny, after suffering a humiliating defeat in August and agreeing in principle that the rebellious province may secede from Russia in five years. Russian nationalists have joined in denouncing the Yeltsin Cabinet for this debacle.
A second result is to raise anew the question of Yeltsin's ability to govern Russia. He is seriously ill and reportedly will not return to the Kremlin for several months. In the meantime, a power struggle is gaining momentum among his lieutenants.
One of them is Alexander Lebed, a former general who helped Yeltsin win the presidential runoff election in July by throwing his electoral support to him. Yeltsin rewarded Lebed by making him his national security coordinator. Recently, Yeltsin gave him authority to negotiate an end to the Chechen war, which has claimed as many as 80,000 casualties.
The peace settlement brokered by Lebed with Chechen separatist leaders is so controversial in Moscow that Yeltsin has not yet given his public approval. Some experts think that if the nationalist forces successfully exploit what they call a humiliating defeat, Yeltsin may disavow Lebed's deal and order a larger military crackdown in Chechnya.
A third outcome of the current turmoil may be a change in Russian foreign policy.
Early in 1996, Yeltsin appointed a new, tougher foreign minister, Yevgeny Primakov, known earlier for his hard-line attitude toward the West and as the defender of Russia's close ties with Iraq's dictator, Saddam Hussein. Primakov strongly criticized the U.S. missile attack on Iraq, saying it could not be justified under any United Nations resolutions. Russia then teamed up with China and France in the U.N. Security Council to denounce the Clinton administration for its military actions against Iraq.
The larger question that Washington needs to consider is whether a humiliated, ignored Russia will start working actively against American policy in Bosnia, as well as NATO's planned expansion to include Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
Lebed is on record as favoring a more assertive Russian foreign policy. If he replaces Yeltsin, as many predict should the president be incapacitated or die, the United States may be dealing with a much tougher, resentful Russia than it has during the past five years.
A danger of the United States in its current stance in the Persian Gulf is the alienation of some key countries, Arab and European, which supported Washington in the 1991 Gulf War but now think the United States ignores their interests and acts unilaterally.
Nowhere does it seem more important to avoid this stigma than in the case of Russia. That country is in a delicate political balance with Yeltsin's tenure in doubt. Except in real emergencies, Bill Clinton should avoid actions that undermine Yeltsin's position at home and instead continue to treat him as a valuable partner in dealing with European and Middle Eastern problems.
The alternative is to relegate Russia to a second-class power role. That would encourage the nationalist backlash that Yeltsin has held in check for more than four years. It could severely complicate Washington's efforts to maintain peace in the Balkans and in the Middle East.
Donald Nuechterlein, a political scientist and writer in Charlottesville, is author of the forthcoming "A Cold War Odyssey: Changing Fortunes on Three Continents."
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