ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Thursday, September 26, 1996 TAG: 9609260038
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-9 EDITION: METRO
COLUMN: Ray L. Garland
SOURCE: RAY L. GARLAND
BARRING THE intervention of the Almighty, there will be only a single change in the 11-member Virginia delegation in the House of Representatives. That will come in the Southside 5th District, where either Democrat Virgil Goode or Republican George Landrith will succeed L.F. Payne, who is retiring to seek the office of lieutenant governor.
Some will wonder why Payne would vacate a seat he hasn't had much trouble holding for only the prospective glory of statewide office. Well, most politics is a matter of dull routine and claptrap. But the House is a place where these are particularly prevalent, mitigated only by the solace of service in the majority and a decent chairmanship. The first is now up in the air and the second is often a long wait.
The most senior member of the state delegation after 16 years of service, Tom Bliley of Richmond, is also the most powerful. As chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee, he commands a broad agenda and has been in the middle of some of the most ferocious battles of the 104th Congress, including the assault on tobacco and major changes in federal law governing telecommunications.
Holding one of the safest Republican seats in the country, Bliley takes sides in interparty disputes to a degree rare for a member of Congress. He has not always been opposed by Democrats in the past, and never seriously. This year, Roderick Slayton of Orange stepped forward to accept the Democratic nomination. Both men can look forward to an early bedtime Nov. 5.
The Democratic counterpart to Bliley is Robert Scott of the 3rd District. A former state senator, and a black first elected in a white-majority district, Scott had been content to run for Congress in 1992 from a new district that would have only a slight black majority. But then-Gov. Douglas Wilder insisted that additional black precincts be added to give Scott a mortal lock. The district joins the East End of Richmond with black-majority precincts plucked from Petersburg, Hopewell, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk and Portsmouth. The racial gerrymander of the 3rd is now under challenge in federal court.
In the adjoining 4th District, the exceedingly clever Democrat, Norman Sisisky, is almost as safe as Scott. Hopewell City Councilman Tony Zevgolis, who got 32 percent of the vote against Sisisky two years ago, will try again, with even smaller hope.
Democrat Owen Pickett doesn't have quite so strong a hold on the 2nd District, which combines most white voters in Norfolk with Virginia Beach. But he has withstood a strong challenge from Republicans in the past and should have little trouble turning back the GOP's John Tate this year. This is a district, however, Republicans will continue to challenge and should one day win.
The 6th, stretching from Roanoke to Harrisonburg, and going far enough east to include Lynchburg, is now safely in the pocket of the GOP's Bob Goodlatte after an unusual 10-year stint in Democratic hands. Unopposed in 1994 at the end of his first term, Goodlatte has drawn a little-known and poorly financed opponent in Jeff Gray and may look forward to a margin that may reach landslide proportions. If it does, Goodlatte will have been vindicated in a stalwart defense of the goals of the Republican leadership.
Goodlatte believes GOP losses in the House will be small enough to preserve their majority for another two years. If so, and President Clinton is re-elected, it would likely mean another Republican majority in 1998 and a good shot at a role of some influence for Goodlatte.
In the Southwest 9th, Democrat Rick Boucher has a slightly more difficult hand to play, but not much. But four incumbents have been defeated there since 1952. Boucher had a small scare in 1984 after his first term, but has had little difficulty since and is unlikely to break a sweat in turning back Pat Muldoon. There is, however, a rising conservative trend in the Ninth that could give Boucher's generally true-blue liberalism a spot of trouble down the road.
In trying to create an ultra-safe district for liberal Jim Moran of Alexandria in the 8th District, while giving their party a good shot at the new 11th District, Democrats in Richmond conceded the GOP's long-serving Frank Wolf a safe Tenth. They did that by adding Arlington to the Eighth and giving Wolf heavily Republican areas in the upper Shenandoah Valley.
The 11th District, which includes parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties, was held by Democrat Leslie Byrne for one term. In the strong GOP tide of 1994 it was won by Tom Davis, who looks to be agile enough to keep it this year. As befits a swing district, Davis has presented himself as a somewhat moderate Republican, dissenting from the party line when necessary to stay in good odor with his constituency.
House Speaker Newt Gingrich saw the need to protect the seat for the GOP by giving the freshman Davis a rare leadership role in the troubled affairs of the District of Columbia. This is a subject of obvious interest to many of his constituents and one guaranteed to give him coverage in the local press.
The one Virginia incumbent with no opponent is the GOP's redoubtable Herb Bateman in the Tidewater 1st District he has held since 1982. The seat was competitive for Democrats until many black voters were removed to the 3rd. Democrats came up with a challenger but he decided the game wasn't worth the candle and withdrew. It was just as well.
Those interested in state politics might make note of a rare documentary airing on all PBS stations Thursday, Oct. 3: "The Public Career of Hunter Andrews." While I haven't seen the final product, I know that Chris Dickon of WHRO-Norfolk has worked hard to capture the essence of one of the most influential state legislators of the modern era.
Ray L. Garland is a Roanoke Times columnist.
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