ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, September 29, 1996 TAG: 9609300068
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DAVID M. POOLE STAFF WRITER
NOTE: Below
VIRGINIANS SAY THEIR BIGGEST CONCERN this fall is the economy. Candidates for Congress differ on what exactly the problem, and solution, is.
These are times of economic contradictions.
Two-income families toil longer, but the middle class continues to shrink.
Consumer confidence is at a six-year high, but people wonder how they'll send their kids to college or if Social Security will be around when they retire.
Large corporations shed workers by the thousands, then post record earnings.
"Good news" like strong inventory orders sends Wall Street into a swoon. "Bad news" like pitiful wage growth sends the markets soaring.
Many people are confused, bitter and downright scared as long-held conventions about work in America crumble. Loyalty and hard work no longer guarantee a gold watch and pension. The concept of "corporate citizenship" rings hollow as companies shutter plants in the United States and move manufacturing jobs overseas.
This new world economy has even called into question one of the most sacred American covenants: A New York Times survey found half of Americans no longer believe that they will pass a higher standard of living to their children.
It came as no surprise, then, that Virginians rank the economy as their top consideration when choosing candidates in congressional elections this fall, according to a statewide poll commissioned this summer by The Roanoke Times and its sister paper in Norfolk, The Virginian-Pilot.
People also said they wanted to hire candidates who relate to their everyday lives, who can make sense of what is happening and who can provide leadership in problem solving. "We need clear goals," said Carolyn Babcock, office manager in a Virginia Beach print shop. "It's just like running your life. You have to have a focus in order to fulfill your dreams.''
In the U.S. Senate campaign, the candidates respond to the public's economic anxieties in strikingly different ways.
John Warner, an 18-year Republican incumbent, offers himself as a beacon of stability in a sea of change. The Republican stresses his record of steering federal funds to Virginia, particularly to shipbuilders and military bases in Hampton Roads.
Democrat Mark Warner calls himself a visionary who, after phenomenal success in the mobile communications business, can help ensure that technological changes will work for - not against - the state's economy.
In the three House of Representatives districts in Western Virginia, the candidates' views of the economy likewise tend to split along party lines. Republicans generally stress that cutting taxes and loosening regulations on business is the best way to increase workers' take-home pay and boost the economy; Democrats generally put greater emphasis on job training programs and stronger trade agreements as the way to attract and keep more high-paying jobs.
Virginia's economic outlook is not all doom and gloom:
* Defense-sensitive Hampton Roads weathered the post-Cold War "build-down" by gaining more military jobs than it lost.
* The Roanoke Valley, bucking a national trend, has added 1,000 manufacturing jobs in the last five years.
* Companies have announced plans to open three microchip manufacturing plants, including a Motorola plant that is projected to employ 5,000 in the Richmond area.
* The unemployment rate in July was 4.5 percent, an improvement from 5.8 percent during the same month five years ago.
"The numbers are a little bit better - in some cases quite a bit better - but people still feel concerned," said Bill Metzger of the Virginia Employment Commission.
Uncertainty about the economy also peppered conversations that The Roanoke Times and the Virginian-Pilot held with small groups of Virginia voters this summer.
"I think people are essentially frustrated," said John Kiefer, a doctoral student at Old Dominion University in Norfolk. "I think that for years we've been seeing that, on the average, we're not going to be as economically competitive as our parents were."
Joseph Slaughter, a lab tech systems supervisor from Pulaski County, said he worried about his children's future.
"If the economy is not going right, then they are not going to be able to get jobs to support their families, even if they learn a trade," he said.
Some economists say people's concerns are justified by fundamental shifts that do not show up in conventional measures such as job growth, inflation and interest rates.
For instance, President Clinton boasts that the economy has generated 10.5 million new jobs during his four-year tenure. A study by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that most of the jobs have been created at the top and bottom of the wage scale - squeezing the middle class.
"The middle part of the scale has actually declined," said Tom Nadrone, an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There is no simple explanation for the middle-class squeeze.
Technology is one factor that can render entire types of workers obsolete with the stroke of a computer keyboard.
Newport News Shipbuilding has pared its work force to 18,000, down from 29,000 in 1990, largely because of slowed orders for warships. But the company has achieved labor savings with robot welders that require four workers for tasks that once required 21 welders.
Coal companies have automated some operations, a move that contributed in the last decade to the loss of 7,000 high-paying jobs in Southwest Virginia.
A second factor is the rise of a global economy that encourages large corporations to close manufacturing plants in the United States and shift operations to Asia and Latin America, where workers toil for pennies an hour.
Southwest Virginia lost 1,000 manufacturing jobs in 1990 when AT&T closed an electrical power systems plant in the New River Valley. AT&T shifted 25,000 manufacturing jobs to Asia and Latin America in the last decade. Line workers at the New River plant earned $8.27 an hour. The Mexican workers who replaced them earn $2.35 an hour.
People who are "displaced" from middle-income jobs have difficulty finding jobs that match their previous salaries. A U.S. Department of Labor study found that about half of these re-employed workers earned less than from their previous job. A full one-third suffered earnings losses of 20 percent or more.
These displaced workers do not show up in unemployment statistics. But their families have slipped a rung on the economic ladder, sending a shudder through their circle of acquaintances.
"They felt it, their families felt it and their friends saw it," said Nadrone, the Bureau of Labor Statistics economist. "It's a real issue, and it can cause anxiety."
The two U.S. Senate candidates respond to this anxiety from two different viewpoints.
John Warner plays the role of grandfatherly benefactor, whose seniority protects Virginia's economy, particularly defense-related industries in Hampton Roads.
"That's where I put money into Richmond right there," John Warner said, pointing to a downtown train station where passenger service will soon return, thanks to federal funds.
Riding down Interstate 95, John Warner interrupted an interview and launched into a travelogue featuring the sites benefiting from his largess.
"See that flood wall over there?" he boomed. "I worked six years to get that flood wall, all up and down there. Mark Warner can't point to a single thing he has gotten for the people.
"Virginia owns the seniority I have. I don't own it. By virtue of that seniority, I now sit on five committees. You realize a freshman is lucky to get on two?"
Later, John Warner showed off a bumper sticker that reads "John for Jobs."
"They brought me 10 designs; I didn't like any of them. So I designed this myself. `John for Jobs,' bringing jobs to this great state."
While John Warner says voters should measure him on his past performance, Mark Warner looks ahead to new technologies that are transforming everything from the way companies mine coal to the way dairy farmers manage their herds.
The new technology has been very good to Mark Warner, who has amassed a $100 million fortune in the mobile communications business. But he says that the dawning Information Age has a dark side, potentially widening the gap between the rich and poor. He argues Virginia needs a leader who understands how to harness the potential of the new economy so that no region is left behind as Virginia enters the next Millennium.
"By the year 2000, 65 percent of the jobs created in the United States will require computer skills," he tells audiences. "At our present rate of training, only 25 percent of the work force will have those skills."
The Democrat has sketched few details into his high-tech vision. He recently invited four Northern Virginia business executives to the coalfields region to scout business opportunities. Most were looking for "backroom" operations - tasks like data input or check processing - that can be performed in remote locations.
"The cost of doing business in Northern Virginia is too high," one of the business leaders said.
A few days earlier, Pro Air, a Detroit-based start-up airline, announced plans to open a telephone reservations center in the town of Grundy. Officials estimated there would be 200 full-time jobs, paying $6.38 an hour with benefits.
"It doesn't replace coal jobs, but it's certainly better than minimum wage," noted state Sen. Jack Reasor, D-Bluefield.
"Yeah," replied Jack Bartee, a retired coal processing plant worker, "it's enough to put beans on the table."
LENGTH: Long : 183 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: 1. ``I think a lot of people are scared - of not havingby CNBjobs, or not maintaining, especially in this area. We see things
come and go, and there are a lot of people without work and a lot of
people on welfare.'' - Dana DeHart, Pulaski. 2. ``I'm concerned for
the people who really need jobs, and good-paying jobs so they can
support their families. We know that in the future my kids [will]
probably have to change two or three jobs before they retire.'' -
Joseph Slaughter, Pulaski. 3. ``You've got a lot of jobs now, but a
lot of people can't make ends meet. I [had] a good-paying job, but
get around other towns and even that's not a whole lot of money
[compared to what] people are making in bigger cities.'' - Kenneth
Walker, Dublin. 4.``There are those that have the education, but
there are no jobs to go around and this is a serious problem for
families, having to see their children move away. They do all they
can to get them prepared, then companies move out.'' - Lin Neill,
Roanoke. Graphic: Chart by staff: What concerns Virginians. KEYWORDS: MGR POLITICS CONGRESS