ROANOKE TIMES 
                      Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times

DATE: Thursday, October 10, 1996             TAG: 9610100091
SECTION: VIRGINIA                 PAGE: C-4  EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY 
DATELINE: RICHMOND
SOURCE: Associated Press 

THEY REGISTERED; WILL THEY VOTE?

About 500,000 Virginians registered to vote from March 6 through Monday's registration deadline, but political observers said that doesn't necessarily mean a higher turnout for the Nov. 5 election.

The increase is likely a state record, said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist who has tracked state voter registration for 26 years.

The increase has occurred during the last seven months, since the ``motor voter'' law went into effect, said M. Bruce Meadows, secretary of the State Board of Elections.

Meadows said he would not speculate on the effect the new law had on registration numbers until the board analyzes the new registrations. He said registration forms are still arriving by mail.

``Of course, registration totals are going to go up if you make materials as widely available as under motor voter,'' said Sabato. ``The real question is whether these people will vote.''

The law made more people eligible, but that doesn't necessarily mean more people will care to participate, said Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. People seem even less engaged in this election than they have been in the past, he said.

``Detachment and disenchantment seems to have grown in recent years. I don't see motor voter as a panacea for that,'' he said.

Holsworth predicted an initial increase in voter turnout, then a gradual decrease over time.

University of Virginia political scientist Steve Finkel said that even if there is only a small increase in turnout, it could affect the outcome of the presidential race in Virginia.

``The race is somewhat close in Virginia, so even a few percentage points from motor voter could affect which way Virginia goes,'' he said.

The most recent poll, a survey by Mason-Dixon Political Media Research Inc. on Sept. 18, showed President Clinton and Republican Bob Dole in a statistical tie. Forty-four percent favored Dole and 43 percent favored Clinton.

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