ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Saturday, October 19, 1996 TAG: 9610210061
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: WARREN FISKE STAFF WRITER
Republican Bob Dole comes to Virginia today hoping to galvanize a state that may be on the verge of supporting a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 32 years.
With polls showing President Clinton with as much as a 9 percentage point lead in Virginia, Dole is to speak at a rally in Norfolk.
The official word from the Dole campaign is that the Old Dominion is a logical stop near the end of the Republican's three-day cross-country trek from San Diego - site of Wednesday's presidential debate - to Washington, where Dole plans to sleep tonight in his own bed. On Sunday, Dole will head to New Hampshire.
But many political analysts say Dole's appearance in a traditional Republican stronghold such as Virginia only 17 days before the Nov.5 election underscores his campaign's inability to cement even its base conservative vote.
``The fact that Dole is spending any time in Virginia at this stage indicates that this state is not locked up for him, and that's bad news for Dole,'' said Mark Rozell, a political scientist at American University in Washington, D.C. ``It suggests that if he's in bad shape here, he's in bad shape everywhere.''
Dole, making his fifth campaign stop in Virginia this year, will be accompanied by two popular Republicans - Gov. George Allen and U.S. Sen. John Warner. Also with Dole will be his daughter, Robin, who spent several days stumping the state this month, including a stop in Roanoke.
Speaking in the hometown of the world's largest U.S. Naval base, Dole is expected to chastise Clinton for cutting defense programs too deeply. Campaign officials said Dole also plans to defend his proposals for cutting taxes and continue questioning Clinton's character.
State Republican leaders say the 90-minute appearance will start a last-minute flurry designed to put Virginia's 13 electoral votes in the hands of the GOP once again. On Friday, Dole began what they called a ``modest'' television advertising campaign in Virginia that should last through Election Day.
But with the nation at peace, with the stock market high and inflation, interest rates and unemployment low, state GOP leaders admit they face no easy task.
``We've known all along that Virginia was going to be a tough race this year,'' said Chris LaCivita, executive director of the state GOP and manager of Dole's Virginia campaign. ``We have never worked under the premise that Bob Dole was going to blow Bill Clinton away in Virginia.''
Clinton has made no commitments to campaign in Virginia despite repeated pleas from Mark Warner, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate this fall.
The Clinton campaign reportedly is debating whether to continue flexing its muscles in large states such as California and Ohio in which his victory appears assured, or to begin campaigning in traditional GOP bastions such as Virginia, Indiana, Florida and Texas.
``Virginia would be icing on the cake for Clinton, but he really doesn't need it,'' said Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, a Maryland polling firm. ``We already have Clinton with statistically significant leads in enough other states to suggest he'll be re-elected.''
With polls showing Clinton holding a double-digit lead nationwide, political scientists say it is not surprising that Virginia should be up for grabs this year. ``Virginia votes about six or seven percentage points more Republican than the rest of the country,'' said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. ``So if Dole is trailing by 15 percentage points in the rest of the country, there's a good chance he would lose in Virginia.''
While Virginia remains Republican-leaning, political scientists add, it's a much less conservative place than it was in 1964 when the state last backed a Democrat, Lyndon Johnson, in his landslide national victory over Republican Barry Goldwater.
Virginia's population has grown by 2.5million since then. Almost half of the growth has occurred in Northern Virginia, where an affluent white-collar and professional class with little or no tie to the state's Southern heritage tends to back Democrats.
The trend was evident in 1992, when Republican incumbent George Bush carried Virginia by only four percentage points over Clinton.
The good news for Republicans is that Bush was able to mobilize support after polls during the closing weeks of the campaign showed him running even with Clinton.
``I can't believe that Clinton will win Virginia; I don't believe it,'' said Del. Randy Forbes of Chesapeake, chairman of the state GOP. ``It's not Virginia's nature to do that.''
More bad news for Dole: deep skepticism over his pledge to enact a 15 percent tax cut. A poll published by the Richmond Times-Dispatch found two out of three Virginians agreeing with Clinton's insistence on reducing the deficit first.
LENGTH: Medium: 93 lines ILLUSTRATION: GRAPHIC: Chart by staff: How Virginia Voted. KEYWORDS: MGR POLITICS PRESIDENTby CNB