ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Tuesday, October 22, 1996 TAG: 9610220091
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-3 EDITION: METRO
DATELINE: RICHMOND
SOURCE: PHILIP WALZER LANDMARK NEWS SERVICE
Legislators Monday heard an unusual public spat between two state agencies over the accuracy of Virginia college enrollment forecasts.
The State Department of Planning and Budget said the projections from the State Council of Higher Education in Virginia were ``poorly documented'' and overestimated enrollment. The projections help determine schools' share of state money.
``If you don't use a recipe, the cake differs from time to time,'' said economist Fletcher Mangum. ``Sometimes it tastes good, and sometimes it doesn't.''
The state council, in turn, said its estimates, though imperfect, were among the best in the nation. And its director, in a passionate conclusion, virtually dismissed the issue as a red herring that was wasting everyone's time in Richmond.
``We've got to stop scouring 20-year-old files to find data for two-year enrollment projections,'' said Gordon Davies, the director of the Higher Education Council. ``It's time to put this behind us and get to work. There are a lot of other things we need to do.''
In a political victory for Davies and a defeat for the Allen administration, the legislators appeared to agree. Some scolded the budget office for not adequately consulting the state council before publicizing its critique in August. And none voiced any objections to the council's enrollment data.
``The legislature is very satisfied with the information received from [the education agency],'' said Del. Alan Diamonstein, D-Newport News.
Sen. John Chichester, R-Fredericksburg, co-chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, virtually echoed Davies: ``Let's focus on that which lies ahead. We need not mire ourselves in the past.''
Officials of both the budget and education agencies testified about the projections Monday before a joint hearing of the education subcommittees of the Senate Finance and House Appropriations committees.
In recent months, the enrollment projections have emerged as one of the state's leading higher-education issues - with sharp political overtones. In July, members of the state council - who are appointed by Gov. George Allen - commissioned an investigation of the enrollment projections. That report, critical of the council, was released at the council's August meeting. The members of the council then approved changes in the forecasting process, providing greater involvement by the budget department.
The members said they were just trying to ensure the projections, which are sent to the governor and legislature before they design budgets, were as accurate as possible. But skeptics worry that it may be part of an attempt by the Allen administration to make Davies look bad.
Davies has been director of the agency for 19 years and has regularly collided with governors, especially in pursuit of more funding for colleges. He is hired not by the governor, but by the members of the council.
In Monday's hearing, the legislators - some of whom are strongly supportive of Davies - spent more time attacking the budget office for its handling of the matter than questioning the numbers themselves.
``There seems to be a perception out there, among the citizens, that something sinister may be going on. It seems to me the [budget] department should have gone over that report with [the education agency], so they could have had the opportunity to respond before they made it public,'' said Sen. Stanley Walker, D-Norfolk, the other co-chairman of the Senate Finance panel.
Mangum, the economist, said he was given only a month to complete the report, so there was no time to review the final draft with council officials.
Mangum said the education council, using individual college projections, overestimated enrollment in four-year schools by the equivalent of 9,800 full-time students in 1995. That, he said, was the combined enrollments of the College of William and Mary, Virginia Military Institute and Clinch Valley College.
The problem, he said, was that the council does not scrutinize the colleges' numbers closely enough or do a good job predicting the influx of transfer students.
But Donald Finley, associate director of the education council, said the errors in 1994 and 1995 were ``an anomaly in council history, which we think is pretty good in predicting enrollment.''
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