ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, November 10, 1996 TAG: 9611080024
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: 1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MEGAN SCHNABEL STAFF WRITER
THE elves have been working overtime at malls and stores in Southwest Virginia.
For the past three weeks, 50 hard-hatted, hammer-toting Santa's helpers have been constructing, from the ground up, what they hope will look like an ice castle, a gingerbread city and a small-scale model of the Brooklyn Bridge at Valley View Mall in Roanoke.
They use a high-tech foam machine to create and mold the sculptures, then paint them with an air brush. Fake snow - made of Dacron - completes the scenes.
The attractions have to be ready for hordes of kids Saturday, when Santa flies in from the North Pole.
"Santa only goes first class here," said Scott Ashcraft, the mall's marketing director and chief elf. "But you've got to remind yourself to keep it simple every once in a while."
Simple isn't usually the best word to describe Christmas at shopping centers anymore. Malls and individual merchants pour far more marketing resources into the Christmas season than any other two-month period. Ashcraft won't say how much all the elaborate Valley View preparations cost. But the Christmas-display package that New River Valley Mall in Christiansburg has used for the last three years cost $150,000, said mall Manager Mike Poldiak. And it pales in comparison to what Valley View does every year, he said.
But the money is spent for good reason, retailers say. While some consumers have begun to shop for Christmas year-round, the months leading up to the holiday still represent the biggest sales period of the year for many retailers. Merchants generally may do more than a third of their annual sales in November and December. According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. consumers spent $440.4 billion on year-end holiday purchases last year.
The numbers in Southwest Virginia are similar. A few examples: Tanglewood Mall registers 45 percent of its sales during those two months, according to Property Manager Judy Tullius. Tom Tyree, manager of the Leggett department store at Valley View, said the holidays account for 35 percent of his store's sales.
Some retailers - jewelers, department stores, men's clothing shops - make an even larger portion of their annual profit during the weeks before Christmas. Jewelry stores, in fact, sell so much high-margin merchandise in the weeks leading up to Christmas that they typically earn their entire year's profit in just two months, said Kenneth Gassman, a retail analyst with Davenport & Co. of Virginia Inc. in Richmond.
That's why a lukewarm Christmas - of the sort we've seen the last several years - hurts retailers so much.
But merchants expect to be merrier this Christmas, and it's not because they've been hitting the egg nog a few weeks early. Instead, they've looked at some important indicators of the economy: Unemployment and inflation are low, interest rates are stable and consumer confidence is at a seven-year high. And Mother Nature has been cooperating, with seasonably chilly weather - plus the memory of last year's near-blizzards - turning shoppers' thoughts toward such wintery, Christmasy purchases as sweaters and woolly slippers.
As a result, many industry watchers are predicting that this Christmas will be slightly better than last year, with 3.5 percent to 5 percent sales increases overall, and stronger gains in categories including jewelry, big-screen TVs and, especially, apparel. While such an increase isn't huge, and doesn't take into account 3 percent inflation, it is considerably larger than last year's 2.8 percent gain.
"It's nothing to do backflips over, but at least it's going in the right direction, slightly ahead of inflation," Poldiak said. Sales at his mall are up 4 percent over this time last year, thanks in part, he said, to a spate of new tenants. Once a new three-screen theater opens later this month, the mall will be 80 percent occupied, its highest rate ever.
This also will be the first Christmas that the Wal-Mart Supercenter is open in Christiansburg. Poldiak said he's waiting to see what impact the superstore, which is right across the road from New River Valley Mall, will have on local traffic and on shopping habits. He expects considerable crossover between the two retail centers.
"We anticipate a very, very good Christmas season," Poldiak said. "We're seeing it start already. October was a very good month."
Department stores will, according to forecasts, have a strong Christmas, buoyed by a resurgence in clothing sales, and especially sales of better women's apparel.
These stores have finally learned how to offer value and service to customers, Gassman said. They also are blitzing consumers with holiday promotions, some tied to charities and fund-raisers, others just plain discounts. The J.C. Penney Co. store at Tanglewood Mall, for instance, is sponsoring a food drive, said Manager Bill Webb, and a "support your school" night, when customers will get 25 percent off purchases after buying a $5 ticket. Proceeds will go to local schools.
Shoppers at the Valley View Leggett store have Christmas on the brain, as measured by a sort of gift-wrap index, said manager Tyree. The store offers free gift-wrapping year-round, but they get special paper for Christmas presents.
"And we're going through a lot of holiday gift wrap," he said.
Overall traffic on the Valley View Mall ring road is up 40 percent over this same time last year, Ashcraft said. Much of that increase can be pinned on the Wal-Mart Supercenter, which opened in January, and to the Rack & Sack supermarket, which opened in June. But actual mall traffic also is up, about 12 percent, he said.
To translate that into real numbers: In September, they counted 450,000 cars on the ring road. Using their benchmark of 1.8 people per car, that translates to 810,000 shoppers. And that's September, not November or December.
Mall tenants seem to be upbeat about the Christmas season, mall manager Louise Dudley said. August sales were up 8 percent over last year, and September figures look strong as well. With the addition of new national chains as tenants including Eddie Bauer and The Disney Store, the mall is 95 percent occupied.
Across town, at Tanglewood, the decorations are less elaborate - "Ours is a more classic, simple decor," Tullius said - but still festive, with garlands, grape vines and animated characters already in place.
The mall also is sponsoring a holiday campaign, including a gift raffle, tied into the "Great New Look" theme associated with its extensive interior remodeling.
With its temporary tenants - including a video game exhibition from the Science Museum of Western Virginia in the vacant Brendle's space - Tanglewood's occupancy rate is 97 percent, Tullius said. Counting only permanent tenants, the mall is 85 percent full. Several new tenants, including Foot Action and Northern Reflections, are scheduled to open soon, she said.
"It's a bad time to be under construction," Tullius said. "But they'll be done by Thanksgiving. I think we're going to have a pretty good season." Merchants are expecting a much better season this year, she said, with gift and apparel sales already strengthening.
Wherever you shop, don't look for a lot of last-minute markdowns this year. After getting caught with so much excess merchandise last Christmas, most retailers have been more cautious about bulking up their inventories this season. They'll likely have fewer goods to get rid of the week before Christmas.
And remember, all you last-minute shoppers: There are five fewer shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year than in 1995.
LENGTH: Long : 134 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: Cindy Pinkston. 1. Anita Williams uses an air brush toby CNBput a candy colored coat of paint on one of the cottages at Valley
View Mall's gingerbread village. color. Graphic: Chart by staff:
Holiday shopping. color.