ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Monday, November 18, 1996 TAG: 9611180103
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A5 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JOHN GOOLRICK
TOO MUCH should not be read into the tea leaves left from the recent election in Virginia, yet Republican and Democratic gubernatorial aspirants next year must take note of some of its implications.
President Clinton's strong showing, the best by any Democratic presidential candidate here in more than 30 years, may hearten Lt. Gov. Don Beyer, who will be the Democratic nominee for governor. And the fact fellow Democrat Mark Warner ran a better-than-expected race against Republican incumbent Sen. John Warner is also good news for Democrats, though his pumping $10 million into his own campaign undoubtedly played a major role in his performance.
But John Warner survived by more than 100,000 votes after two years of relentless attacks from the right wing of his party, furious with him for abandoning GOP nominees for high office in two successive years. One has to wonder if some of those voters associated with the party element extremely hostile to him retaliated by either voting for his opponent this time, or simply voting for no one in the senatorial race.
One lesson becomes clear and should be closely heeded by prospective Republican gubernatorial nominee Attorney General Jim Gilmore - namely that while the party's right wing can stack conventions and nominate those it wants, it is a paper tiger when it comes to electing its favorites to statewide office and unable to defeat those such as John Warner who often disagree with its considerably right-of-center agenda.
Gilmore, who some think has cozied up too much to the right wing in recent years, must be able to portray himself as a moderate centrist if he expects to win.
But Beyer has problems, too. Fredericksburg businessman W. Rodger Provo, a former aide to Gov. Linwood Holton and a seasoned political observer, says, "Don Beyer is somewhat like Mark Warner in that he doesn't have a clear message or articulate an agenda."
Provo found it ironic that Beyer, while campaigning for Mark Warner, sought to exploit the rift between John Warner and the right wing, since Warner's refusal to endorse Mike Farris helped elect Beyer.
"He has failed to define himself, state his vision of Virginia and to show bold leadership qualities," Provo asserts, adding, "At heart I think Beyer is a Northern Virginia liberal and has the same style of Mark Warner in that he knows how to run well-funded, big-money, negative campaigns." Provo backed Beyer in 1993, but mainly to prevent Farris from winning.
I agree with Provo that Beyer's conduct in the recent campaign and his tenure in office give Gilmore an opportunity to appeal to moderate Republicans and independents and, if successful, to place Beyer's appeal to those left of center - a difficult position from which to win an election in Virginia. Beyer's previous appeal to centrist elements may have been damaged by his recent conduct.
My assessment is that Gilmore's position can be improved in the election's aftermath if he seeks to capitalize on it by adopting pragmatic positions stressing fiscal integrity, retaining the highly successful Allen economic development strategies and promoting leaner government that still delivers the services people want.
Make no mistake. Beyer has proven himself to be, like Clinton, an effective campaigner even though his political philosophy may be more often based on expediency than principle. Virginians did nothing to discourage that kind of behavior when they almost let Mark Warner buy the election with negative and misleading ads followed by a barrage of feel-good commercials that revealed only that he was for God, country and apple pie.
By contrast, John Warner, a man with convictions and the courage to act upon them, was pilloried mercilessly by his own party's rightist element. Even so, Warner won with 53 percent of the vote in a strange year when the state was almost voting Democratic in the presidential election.
The hunch here is that Clinton's star will quickly dim in Virginia, and that John Warner has shone a beacon that can be followed by Gilmore and other GOP candidates toward the shore where a majority of voters dwell. But if Gilmore rows his political boat strongly away from the center, it may well founder on the same extremist shoals that have dashed the hopes of other statewide candidates, Democrat and Republican alike, in the past.
John Goolrick, a former political reporter, is now an aide to 1st District Rep. Herbert H. Bateman.
LENGTH: Medium: 81 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICS GOVERNORby CNB