ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1996, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, December 22, 1996 TAG: 9612230027
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: DWAYNE YANCEY STAFF WRITER
NOW THAT winter is officially here, what kind of weather lies ahead? It depends on which set of experts you trust most. Take your pick.
Here's the bad news: We're in for a humdinger of a winter.
Remember those two snowstorms we've already had, even before the first official day of winter? There's your proof, and that's just the beginning.
Just ask Pat Altis about all those solid-black woolly worms she's seen wiggling across the back roads of Floyd County.
Who's she, you ask, and why should we care about something as inconsequential as the colors on a caterpillar?
For one thing, she's a mail carrier from the Copper Hill post office in Floyd County, which ought to count for a thing or two. After all, if you want an expert on the weather, who could be more of an expert than someone up in the highlands of Floyd County - where the winters hit harder, and last longer, than just about anywhere else in the state.
And the folk wisdom at the country stores up in Floyd is pretty clear: If you care about what the weather's going to be, keep your eye on nature.
Nobody's quite sure why nature works the way it does; it's one of the world's many mysteries. Some things just have to be taken on faith.
Here at Smith's Grocery & Hardware, where the good folk of Copper Hill can buy pinto beans by the scoopful and swap tales by the shovelful, the talk often turns to the signs of nature. And this season, almost all agree the signs point to a Bad One coming.
"A lot of the older people think it'll be a tough winter," proprietor Ray Smith said. "They say there are a lot of hickory nuts and acorns; that's a sign of a rough winter."
He nods toward Altis, the mail carrier. She hears a lot of news as she makes her rounds.
"I've had a lot of people tell me the bark on the tree is heavier and the hair on the cattle is heavier this year," she said. "They also tell me the ants were working this summer."
The ants? "In the summer months, the ants have folly," she said. "But this year, the ants worked all summer. And the squirrels, too. They didn't fool around as much." Storing up for a hard winter, apparently.
And then there's the clincher - those danged woolly worms. "There's one road on my route where the weather stays cold, and there have been a lot of them in the road," Altis said, pausing before she dropped the bombshell, "and just about every one has been solid black."
If those woolly worm counts in Floyd County aren't firm enough for you, then you can also consider a wider range of evidence.
Remember how foggy it was in August? For every morning fog in August, there's supposed to be a snowstorm in winter.
Or maybe you'd like to rely on the Virginia Department of Transportation. Officially, the department tunes into the same weather sources as the rest of us. "The Weather Channel is on about all the time in my office," said Laura Bullock, spokeswoman for the department's 12-county Salem district.
Still, just for fun, she recently consulted the district's snowplow operators and mechanics, figuring they spend a lot of time outdoors and might have learned a thing or two over the years.
Their assessment was pretty much the same as that at the Copper Hill store: Better stock up on tire chains and kerosene.
Ben Pursley, an 86-year-old retired snowplow operator from Botetourt County, told her that January will be especially rough - based on his observation of an "overabundance" of pine cones in the tree tops.
Even Fred Altizer, the Salem District administrator, has been warning highway workers to get ready for a bad winter. He's basing his prediction on a wet summer and wet fall - there's just too much moisture in the air, he said.
Still, it pays to be cautious. The long-range forecasts based on the thickness of cattle hide and the colors of a caterpillar are based on some pretty flimsy evidence that not everyone accepts.
Paul Nichols, a Copper Hill cattle farmer, scoffs at his neighbors. "I don't believe that woolly worm," he said. Instead, there's only one sign of nature he believes. "When you see it snowing, it's snowing."
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY
About the coming winter.
Climatologists
JET STREAM
It's riding over the Ohio River Valley, blowing Canadian wind to our north. Outlook: MILD WINTER.
HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURES
They're running above average for this time of year. Outlook: MILD WINTER.
Folk wisdom
WOOLLY WORM
There's a prepondence of black caterpillars. Outlook: HARD WINTER.
ACORNS
There's a heavy crop on the ground. Outlook: HARD WINTER.
COW HIDE
The hide on cattle is said to be thicker than usual. Outlook: HARD WINTER.
LENGTH: Medium: 94 linesby CNB