ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1997, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, January 8, 1997 TAG: 9701080007
SECTION: EDITORIAL PAGE: A-9 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: JOHN GOOLRICK
WITH THE gubernatorial election of 1997 the last thing on the minds of most people, now is when strategies are being formulated for what will probably be a very close political battle.
In ways, Lt. Gov. Don Beyer, a Democrat, and Attorney General Jim Gilmore, a Republican, are in enviable positions. There is scarcely a hint of any opposition to them for the gubernatorial nominations of their respective parties. Thus, they are free to concentrate hard on their pending confrontation in the fall.
From recent talks I've had with sources close to both men, here's their overall views of the coming contest:
Beyer, a Northern Virginian, will always take stands that tend to protect his base in that vote-rich region. If he wins, it will undoubtedly be his key to victory. Education sells well in the northern part of the state, and environmental issues are potent with the mostly affluent people of Fairfax and Arlington counties and the city of Alexandria.
In his nearly eight years as lieutenant governor, Beyer has managed to maintain, many think deliberately, a fuzzy image of himself. Nobody can really pin down the nature of his political philosophy. He doesn't seem to be either liberal or conservative, and yet classifying him as a moderate also seems wrong.
He is for fiscal responsibility, spending more money on education, easing government regulations, protecting the environment, considering tobacco an addictive drug, helping tobacco farmers, giving aid to unions while guarding the state's right-to-work law.
His basic formula for success: Pile up a big majority in Northern Virginia, get support from such Democratic groups as educators, unions, minorities and the like, while obfuscating his own views enough to gather in significant numbers of business people and independents.
Gilmore seems to be moving toward a centrist strategy. He is aware that Beyer and Democrats will try to pin on him what they consider the worst parts of incumbent Republican Gov. George Allen's record on the environment and education. No matter what the real record is, Allen's Secretary of Natural Resources, Becky Norton Dunlop, has been a public-relations disaster, the Virginia equivalent of James Watts.
It becomes obvious that Gilmore intends to emphasize the best of George Allen, particularly his outstanding record on economic development and law enforcement, while distancing himself in such areas as education and the environment. To that end, he already has come up with a proposed scholarship program based on accomplishment, and will be taking a lead on several environment issues, including a couple likely to be popular in Northern Virginia.
While not as charismatic as Allen, Gilmore has a good sense of where the people stand on various issues and a knack for finding ways to be there with them. Beyer is a wonderful politician, a lot like Bill Clinton in imparting feel-good messages. And he always remembers your name, a gift that is even more valuable in politics than most pundits think.
Gilmore certainly won't give up on Northern Virginia, will try to extract every vote from there he can. But his strategy will be heavily laden with things to attract voters in less-populous regions such as Southside and the Southwest. His ringing defense of tobacco in response to Beyer's condemnation of it made that clear enough.
Some around Beyer might be tempted to make the election a referendum on the Allen administration, and yet that could be a fatal mistake. The poll numbers show the young governor remains popular despite the many stridently hostile editorials lambasting some of his stands on education and the environment.
The media focus won't begin in earnest until summer, but the preparation for battle is usually just as important as the battle itself. And it appears that both camps are preparing very carefully.
John Goolrick, a former political reporter, is now an aide to Republican 1st District Rep. Herbert H. Bateman.
LENGTH: Medium: 75 lines KEYWORDS: POLITICS GOVERNORby CNB