ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1997, Roanoke Times
DATE: Wednesday, February 5, 1997 TAG: 9702050065
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: B-1 EDITION: METRO
COLUMN: JACK BOGACZYK
SOURCE: JACK BOGACZYK
It is becoming as anticipated an annual emergence as that of Punxsutawney Phil. In 32 days, the NCAA Division I basketball committee, headed by Virginia athletic director Terry Holland, will leave a burrowed room in Kansas City and tell 64 teams they could be dribbling through several more weeks of winter.
This year, more bubbles will burst than usual when the NCAA Tournament field is announced. There are several conferences already lobbying for five bids. Some of those only may get three. Only the Big Ten (1990) and Big East (1991) have received seven bids in one year. The ACC would like to join the list.
It will be up to Florida State whether that happens, and it's not going to help that the Seminoles have played the easiest schedule in the ACC. The six teams ahead of FSU in the ACC standings are all but assured bids. The Ratings Percentage Index, one of the tools used to construct the bracket, says that. It also says the Seminoles' schedule ranks 66th.
The other six are in the RPI's top 20 this week. Four of those six (North Carolina, Clemson, Duke and Virginia) rank among the first 18 in strength of schedule. Holland can't lobby for his school or his league. It won't be necessary.
The Cavaliers (15-6) may be painful to watch at times and in pain because of point guard Harold Deane's sore shin, but they likely need only two more wins to lock up a spot. If the very tough Deane goes down for the season, it would affect Virginia's seed, which right now would figure to be a No.6 or 7.
Pick Kansas and Wake Forest, and then where do you go to seed? There are some other very good teams, all with obvious flaws besides a lack of depth. Filling out the tournament bracket for those office pools may take more than your lunch hour this year.
The Big East is talking about five bids. The RPI says it is the nation's No. 4 league, behind the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten. The Big East also is only 2-13 against non-conference ranked teams, with Villanova visiting Kentucky on Sunday. That record won't help bubbling Miami (Fla.) get its first NCAA trip since 1960, in the pre-Rick Barry days. West Virginia (13-6) should get a berth, however.
February may have only 28 days, but it's going to be a long Maalox month for more Atlantic 10 coaches than retiring Bill Foster at Virginia Tech, which still has to play its way into even an NIT bid. The RPI ranks the A-10 ninth this week, which works against five NCAA berths.
However, five teams - Xavier, Rhode Island, St.Joseph's, Temple and Massachusetts - are between 24th and 43rd in the RPI, and Temple's spot (39) doesn't include its impressive Sunday smothering of Louisville. Xavier, Rhode Island and Temple are NCAA at-large locks.
St.Joe's is one of the nation's surprise clubs, but UMass has an edge if the A-10 is to get only four berths. The Minutemen have played the nation's toughest schedule. The league has made an effort to improve schedules - it ranks seventh in that RPI category - and has five among the top 50, including Tech's No. 48 spot. However, Xavier will be seeded lower - like the Hokies, who were a No .8 last March - because the Musketeers' schedule ranks 108th.
The low-major leagues, as usual, aren't going to get more than one berth, unless a team like Boston University, a solid club from the American East coached by ex-UVa assistant Dennis Wolff, is upset in conference tournament play. Few of those teams even have a decent RPI. New York City is raving about Iona in the Metro Atlantic. The Gaels' RPI is No. 95.
On that very crowded bubble this season is one of the nation's few remaining independents, Oral Roberts. And as the evangelist was fond of saying, his team and others need to ``expect a miracle'' to get an NCAA ticket.
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