ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1997, Roanoke Times
DATE: Monday, February 24, 1997 TAG: 9702240095
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: A-1 EDITION: METRO
SOURCE: MARK CLOTHIER STAFF WRITER
IF FORECASTS ARE RIGHT,the market for the high-tech products that could be tested in the Montgomery County countryside will be massive.
About 40 miles northwest of Columbus, Ohio, sits an automotive test site that's meant billions of dollars and thousands of jobs to its community.
The Ohio site is a traditional test facility, large-scale; it can simulate crashes and test bus and car emissions, among other things.
Since opening in 1972, the Transportation Research Center, affiliated with Ohio State University, has attracted 500 customers, 10 of whom use it so often they opened branch offices there.
Then, seven years after opening, the Ohio facility hooked the big one: Honda Motor Co.
The automotive giant now has four plants in nearby Marysville, employs 12,500 people and has invested several billion dollars in the local economy. In 1988, Honda bought the 7,500-acre test facility from the state, but it's still open for outside use.
One of the main reasons Honda moved there in 1979 was the Transportation Research Center, said Roger Lambert, a corporate spokesman.
It is the hope of Ray Pethtel, Virginia Tech's head cheerleader for highway technology, that a similar economic garden will grow in Southwest Virginia. The "smart" road is his fertilizer.
But whether the region's economy will indeed sprout as predicted is still a question.
Jeff Sprague, spokesperson for the Ohio test site, said the 170 companies that use his facility do little intelligent-transportation systems work.
"There's not really a demand for it," Sprague said. "What we have, there's a demand for. You can put the stuff in to test ITS products, but it gets used once and you don't get much chance to recoup your cost."
Chrysler Corp.'s head of ITS, Ivy Renga, agrees. The Michigan-based company, like most of the major automakers, has its own test sites. Overflow is sent to places such as Sprague's, in neighboring Ohio.
"I don't think anyone's getting rich off these test sites," Renga said. "I think people are happy to break even. They usually cover the cost of their graduate programs. The riches come from the research knowledge."
But if forecasts are right, the market for the high-tech products that could be tested in the Montgomery County countryside will be massive.
Americans will spend $400 billion over the next 20 years for "smart" products, $5,800 for each American family, according to a recent study.
We spend about $3 billion a year as a nation now for things such as in-car navigational aids and Mayday, a device that uses the military's Global Positioning System satellite technology to help find you when you're stranded. It's already sold in Lincoln Continentals.
For such products, though, the major automakers won't be leading the way so much as the companies that supply these parts.
With the ``smart'' road, Tech will have set up shop early to take advantage of this market.
The roughly 2-mile test facility in the rural Ellett Valley is part of a 6-mile, $103 million route from Blacksburg to Interstate 81; it's been dubbed the ``smart'' road for the intelligent transportation systems testing that will occur there.
Construction of the $27 million test bed of the road should begin in June. The first 1.7 miles, costing $14.5 million, should be finished in two years. The second phase of the project will be construction of a huge bridge spanning Wilson Creek.
The roughly $3 million to $5 million infrastructure needed for the studies, including high-tech sensors imbedded in the road, is being paid for by Tech, the Virginia Department of Transportation and private industry. Studies could start by summer 1998.
Various forms of testing will continue on the road as long as demand warrants. So far, only the 2-mile test bed is paid for, said David Clarke, an assistant resident engineer with VDOT. He estimates two of the highway's eventual four lanes will reach I-81 by 2002.
Pethtel has predicted the road will attract $100 million in research money for product testing in the next 20 years. He also says the road will generate some $300 million in long-term, spin-off business. So far, it's attracted some $10 million to $15 million in research money, Pethtel said.
The forecasts are still just informed hope at this point. And Virginia taxpayers are betting on a $103 million road -a road that its critics say wasn't necessary.
More and more cars
Few in the ITS industry, however, dispute a pending boom.
Their proof: America has 3.9 million miles of roads, an amount that isn't expected to change much. It also has 175 million drivers and 200 million vehicles, and those numbers keep growing. Since 1972, the number of local road miles has grown 2.3 percent while the number of cars is up 50 percent.
Until the 1970s, the government simply built more roads when they were needed. But more environmental laws, less money and less space in metropolitan areas has slowed that.
Data also show drivers need help: Half of all fatal accidents occur at night; 44 percent of those involve one vehicle.
The question is how to deal with an increasing demand on a static system. The answer seems to be ITS.
The federal government's thinking is to build roads selectively, using new roads as a chance to improve safety with developing technology.
They know the stuff works - a test of some of the technology in Los Angeles reduced signal delays 37 percent to 44 percent, and a 1992 project in Orlando reduced wrong-way turns 33 percent.
What isn't a given is whether a test facility for ITS products will do well.
Getting the word out
Now that construction on the road is set to begin, it's time to spread the word. That's Pethtel's job. Formerly the state's top highway administrator, Pethtel is now associate director of Virginia Tech's Center for Transportation Research.
The project seems to be widely known in the ITS industry. That's likely to increase as the marketing intensifies.
The project will be part of VDOT's spring campaign to increase awareness of its statewide intelligent transportation program. To help, it will be renamed Virginia's Smart Travel program.
Pethtel has a videotape and pamphlets on the road. A marketing package with prices and specific details is in the works. So is a virtual reality model that will be accessible on the Internet. The model will include a 3-D virtual reality tour of the test site.
The plan also involves putting the word out at trade shows like last fall's ITS World Congress in Orlando, where Ashwin Amanna, the smart road project manager, met Buddy Kinlaw.
Kinlaw works at the Air Force Development Test Center, housed at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida's panhandle. The center is part of the military's Technology Transfer initiative to make money with its resources.
It's Kinlaw's job to attract private industry to use the Air Force site, which is world-class thanks to a $75 million overhaul.
So far he hasn't had much success: In three years, about four companies have tested products there. The automotive world, Kinlaw said, needs more convincing to spend money in a federal facility.
"There are lots of places to test automotive products," Kinlaw said. "But not for this type of stuff."
Kinlaw is proposing that the Air Force center and Tech join forces. Pethtel said the two groups will probably work together to attract and refer business since the facilities will be compatible.
The Air Force testing facility includes a climate control center big enough to house a 747. It can simulate any known weather condition. It also can replicate weather by-products such as mildew and fungus.
One thing it can't do is simulate all that outside, which is one of the things the smart road can.
And that, in ITS circles, is a pretty big deal.
"The Tech center will have to get credibility first," Kinlaw said. "But these high-tech systems are more and more complex, and most companies don't have the ability to test them."
Vincent Pearse is in charge of ITS Business Development for Allied-Signal Inc. The Maryland-based company makes software that detects and manages traffic accidents, using cameras, sensors and programmable signs.
Pearse said his company has its own test site, but it doesn't allow test cars to run at full speed, which Tech's site will. It also can't simulate bad weather as Tech's will.
He said Allied Signal would probably have use for such a facility. He also said there's a strong need for one industrywide.
"This sounds extremely comprehensive," Pearse said. "That's really quite impressive."
Ford Motor Co.'s ITS guy, Gerald Conover, agrees.
More and more, Conover said, the automakers are becoming just engine and frame builders. Most of the other things that go into a car are built by suppliers who'll need to test their own products at sites like Tech's.
He said Ford already tests its products in cold weather where it's cold and in hot weather where it's hot.
But Tech's site, Conover said, will be unique.
"That's a real honest-to-God highway they'll have," he said. "That's the exciting thing about what's going on in Virginia."
LENGTH: Long : 165 lines ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO: 1. The "smart" road will be marketed as part ofby CNBVirginia's Smart Travel program. 2. (headshot) Pethel. GRAPHIC: Map
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