ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1997, Roanoke Times
DATE: Sunday, March 16, 1997 TAG: 9703170010
SECTION: CURRENT PAGE: NRV-2 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
COLUMN: NEW RIVER JOURNAL
DATELINE: CHRISTIANSBURG
SOURCE: ELIZABETH OBENSHAIN
From the newspaper office adjacent to the New River Valley's version of retail heaven, I count the Cadillacs coasting by into the Wal-Mart parking lot. It's my unofficial economic indicator for the valley.
On the surface, things look great. More stores and franchise restaurants open along the strip, new tenants filling out the New River Valley Mall-this place is humming.
But other recent indicators that scratch a little deeper beneath the surface make us ponder how muscular the valley's economy really is.
Words like "Continuing Economic Decline" in a news release tend to catch your attention. A recent study by the New Century Council found the region, which comprises both the New River and Roanoke valleys, suffering a gradual decline. The economy of the New River Valley was even weaker than that of our slow-growing neighbor down the mountain -especially when you remove Montgomery County's buoyant numbers from the mix.
While the nation and state as a whole have lost manufacturing jobs, the valley is losing them at a faster rate, especially when compared with other rural counties in Virginia. Manufacturing jobs are important because their relatively high wages and benefits can provide a bedrock for the community's economic health.
Total employment in the valley's four counties has grown at a much slower rate than the state's, with the exception of Montgomery County, which has a growth rate two to three times that of its rural neighbors, according to the study.
The valley's dependence on cyclical industries, such as automotive, textile and furniture manufacturing, makes us more vulnerable to economic cycles and layoffs, according to the Virginia Employment Commission's Bill Mezger, one of the state's leading economic analysts.
For example, an economic downturn frequently means a drop in truck orders; a drop in truck orders can send a shudder through much of Pulaski County's economy.
Economic graphs are difficult for many of us to absorb.
Sometimes anecdotal evidence speaks more loudly to us about how our valley is changing. A recent Pulaski County High School graduate was quoted in the Current about how the size of the student body has dropped in the past several years. Today, enrollment at the high school is 1,550, a drop of over one-third since 1985. Now that's a demographic trend you can understand. Young families with children are leaving the county-undoubtedly in search of better jobs.
The New Century Council study tells the same story in different statistics. The number of Pulaski County residents dependent on government payments in the past 15 years has shot up from 16 percent to 24 percent. In Giles and Floyd counties, the numbers also exceed the state average.
None of these facts should make us panic that the New River Valley's economy is headed south at interstate speeds. But it does reveal some disturbing economic trends-gradual changes often cloaked by the more visible changes in the valley's fastest-growing county-Montgomery.
While Montgomery is debating the cost vs. the benefits of growth, the other counties have to worry about sliding even further toward a population that is older and less educated as its young people leave for better jobs.
"Better jobs" is the operative word here. For Jim Rakes, president of the National Bank of Blacksburg and co-chairman of the New Century Council, high-tech jobs are an obvious goal for the valley, building on the strength of Virginia Tech and its research programs.
Another opportunity, which is just now in the talking stages, is a proposed 4,000-acre industrial park being dreamed of for Pulaski County, near the New River Valley Airport in Dublin. This park presents huge challenges - requiring the resources of an entire region to bring on line - but it also could hold the possibility of a regional payoff. It could give the valley an industrial showcase that would vie for state marketing attention with any other facility in the state. And we'd better start hustling. Botetourt and Roanoke counties have both announced plans for major industrial sites.
A project that would require regional cooperation could result in other benefits-generating a dialogue on issues that cross the valley's invisible county lines, such as quality of life and preservation of the valley's natural resources.
Recent efforts at regional cooperation, however, including the debate over a trash authority, have read more like a Marx Brothers plot than a strategy for success. The valley may need a new script if it wants its economic success to be valleywide rather than just Montgomery deep.
ELIZABETH OBENSHAIN-is editor of the New River Current.
LENGTH: Medium: 87 lines ILLUSTRATION: GRAPHIC: Income from government transfer. KEYWORDS: MGRby CNB