ROANOKE TIMES
Copyright (c) 1997, Roanoke Times
DATE: Friday, April 11, 1997 TAG: 9704110064
SECTION: VIRGINIA PAGE: C-3 EDITION: NEW RIVER VALLEY
DATELINE: RICHMOND
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS
The lower numbers reflect decreased enrollment in high schools and a decrease in the number of people moving into Virginia.
Virginia's four-year colleges expect to enroll 17,717 fewer students in the 2001-02 school year than projected two years ago, state Education Secretary Beverly Sgro said Thursday.
Preliminary estimates by the State Council of Higher Education forecast enrollment of 180,214 students, down from the April 1995 long-range forecast of 197,931.
The lower numbers reflect decreased enrollment in high schools and a decrease in the number of people moving into Virginia, said Mike McDowell, a council spokesman.
State officials have not yet revised the community college enrollment projections. The new forecast for four-year colleges would put systemwide enrollment at 305,754.
Current enrollment is 295,293, including 167,990 students in four-year colleges.
The upshot of the revised numbers is that while higher education costs will continue to rise, they will do so at a slower rate than previously expected.
College budgets are based on enrollment projections. The state appropriates an average of $4,644 per student.
Donald Finley, associate director of the higher education council, said the revised forecast could affect construction costs more than operational expenditures.
``If you were projecting enrollment a lot higher than what actually showed up, you might build more capacity than needed,'' he said.
Finley said the state's colleges have held the line on both operational and construction expenses in recent years.
A General-Assembly-mandated restructuring program has forced colleges to absorb higher enrollments without significantly increasing faculty positions.
Also, the last major construction program came in 1992, when voters approved a $431 million bond issue. The last of those buildings are just now being finished, Finley said.
The council staff's forecasting methods came under fire last year because enrollment was overestimated by nearly 5 percent for the previous two-year budget cycle.
The inflated forecasts prompted the higher education council to pass a resolution asking the state Department of Planning and Budget to work with council staff this year to improve forecasting techniques.
The revised figures are ``a great example of what can be accomplished through interagency cooperation,'' Sgro said.
Also, the robust economy means fewer people are going back to school to get advanced degrees or take technical courses that will help them get work, she said.
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