THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: FRIDAY, June 10, 1994 TAG: 9406100713
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: D5 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY DWAYNE YANCEY, LANDMARK NEWS SERVICE
DATELINE: 940610 LENGTH: WOOLWINE, VA.
``From the way you hear people talk at the service station, you'd think everybody was going to come out and vote,'' the retired schoolteacher says.
{REST} And in this rugged corner of Patrick County, there's little doubt - at least in Turner's mind - about just how those folks will vote: Why, for their state senator, Virgil Goode, of course.
``So many people here, even if they don't know him personally, he's like a family person,'' Turner says. ``We have people back up in these mountains who don't vote too often. I went to visit one man last week and he'd been to re-register to vote so he could vote for Virgil.''
In fact, Turner says, Goode is so popular in these parts that it's not just the Democrats who plan to turn out next Tuesday to vote for him in the party's primary against U.S. Sen. Charles Robb and two other rivals.
``I'd bet we have as many Republicans at the polls as Democrats,'' Turner says. ``I've had at least a half-dozen Republicans call and ask if they could vote in the primary.''
Here in the legislative district Goode has represented for more than two decades, the excitement surrounding Tuesday's Senate primary has reached the fever-pitch of a November election.
Trouble is, outside Goode's legislative district, it's as if the election doesn't exist.
From Norton to Norfolk, Democratic Party leaders agree that probably no more than 10 percent-15 percent of the state's 2.9 million registered voters will bother to vote. In Arlington, County Treasurer Frank O'Leary, who fancies himself as much an expert in counting votes as counting tax dollars, projects only 8 percent of the voters in that Northern Virginia suburb will show up.
One problem, says former state Sen. Jack Kennedy of Wise County, is that ``people are unaccustomed to voting in a primary.''
Since 1970, Virginia has held only two such elections to nominate a party's candidates for statewide office. Even the fireworks of the 1989 Republican primary for governor between Marshall Coleman, Paul Trible and Stan Parris brought out fewer than 14 percent of the registered voters. You have to go back to the 1977 Democratic primary for governor between Henry Howell and Andrew Miller to find a turnout that came close to 25 percent.
Many Democrats say another reason for the expected low turnout is that this year's campaign has done little to stir partisan juices. As O'Leary puts it, the Democrats he knows are ``apathetically, overwhelmingly for Robb.''
Party leaders say they're unconcerned. ``In a primary, you expect a low turnout,'' says Gary Waldo, a Roanoke teachers' lobbyist.
Indeed, some observers see a low turnout as one of the keys to Robb's renomination. Ordinary voters ``are not captivated by the inside politics of a primary,'' Kennedy says. ``It's only the insiders who will vote and they will get their friends to vote.'' And for the most part, those Democratic insiders - such as the AFL-CIO, the Virginia Education Association, the National Abortion Rights Action League - are backing Robb.
To counter that, Goode has embarked on a novel strategy. In a state where elections are increasingly decided in the populous suburbs, Goode has focused his campaign on lighting a brushfire of indignation toward the incumbent in rural areas.
The Rocky Mount legislator has talked up his appreciation for ``rural values.'' He's made a show of winning endorsements from constitutional officers, a classic technique in rural communities where courthouse leaders often serve as conduits for mobilizing voters. And this week, Goode won the endorsement of a group whose embrace is as potent in rural Virginia as it is poison in the suburbs: the National Rifle Association.
In a fall election, where voter turnout is usually consistent from one end of the state to the other, Goode's emphasis on barnstorming Virginia's countryside would be a quixotic gesture.
But for Tuesday's primary, Goode is hoping for an unusually lumpy pattern of voter turnout - low in the suburbs and cities, high in the rural areas - to carry him to an upset.
Mathematically, it's possible. After all, rural voters still account for about 25 percent of the state's total. In a way, says Del. John Davies, D-Culpeper, rural voters now function much like other another minority: black voters. When they vote as a bloc, they have more clout.
With that in mind, Goode does appear to be succeeding in the first phase of his strategy to consolidate support in rural areas outside his Blue Ridge base. In Isle of Wight County, for instance, Goode seems to be well ahead, says Commissioner of the Revenue Gerald Gwaltney.
The reason, Gwaltney says, is ``probably character. I think when you get into rural areas, family values and tradition are a little bit bigger priority. That's one of the pluses Virgil has at this point.''
In the Piedmont region between Charlottesville and Northern Virginia, Goode also has strong support, Davies says. ``In this area, Virgil has picked up a lot of speed. It's astounding the number of people working for Virgil... who have had their pictures taken with Robb, dating back to his 1977 campaign for lieutenant governor.''
But these long-time Robb supporters, he says, have difficulty rationalizing the stories about Robb's fast-lane social life in Virginia Beach during the 1980s. Also, he says, ``I think some of the positions Chuck Robb has taken in the past six months are making people very uncomfortable in rural areas.''
Topping the list, Davies says, is Robb's support for gays in the military. ``His speech before the gay group caused people some concern.''
Yet for all the inroads Goode may be making in rural areas around the state, there's little indication that voters in the country will turn out in more significant numbers than their city counterparts.
Even next door to Goode's legislative district, Del. Ted Bennett, D-Halifax, says he's seen ``no organized effort for anybody.''
But here in Goode-land, the campaign appears to be building with the furious pace of a bluegrass breakdown. At the Crossroads Foodmart between Ferrum and Endicott in the southwestern toe of Franklin County, it's on most every customer's mind.
``They make little remarks like, 'He'd be a good one to have up there,' '' says clerk Carol Castle. ``They don't really stand around and say much. But you know they're interested. Yeah, they're gonna vote.''
{KEYWORDS} U.S. SENATE RACE VIRGINIA CANDIDATE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CAMPAIGNING by CNB