THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, July 16, 1994 TAG: 9407160286
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY JACK DORSEY, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 147 lines
In the view of many military analysts, Haiti's rule by a dictatorial regime is numbered by days, surely no more than a few months.
Whether the United States invades the Caribbean island nation to bring about this change rests squarely with the Clinton administration.
The United States has 2,650 Marines aboard five Norfolk-based amphibious ships off the shores of Haiti, to be used in an evacuation of Americans and other foreign nationals there. If the United States invades, a force of up to 10,000 troops would sweep through Haiti's capital of Port-au-Prince, land at its international airport and surround its government offices and strategic villages and towns, military analysts say.
Marines, Army Rangers, Navy SEALs and other special units would overwhelm the ill-equipped 7,700-member Haitian military, only 500 of whom are organized into combat units and capable of mounting any kind of resistance. Haiti's navy is just three workable patrol boats. Its air force consists of two small planes.
It has no allies to depend upon for help.
So poorly armed are its soldiers that there are barely 150 rounds of ammunition per man, with no resupply - enough for about half an hour of fighting, provided the Haitians can avoid firing wildly in panic.
D-Day would be the assault. On D-Day plus 1, the work of putting the country's government back together would begin.
``I would liken this invasion to a SWAT team raid on a crack house, where we had given the drug forces, the criminals, clear warning that we are coming,'' said retired Rear Adm. Eugene Carroll, an analyst with the Center for Defense Information in Washington. ``We will kick in the doorand there will be nobody at home.''
The invasion would resemble America's efforts in Grenada, dubbed Operation Urgent Fury. On Oct. 25, 1983, a 6,000-member force from the United States and token forces from five Caribbean nations moved in and quickly overcame light resistance from the estimated 1,000-member Grenadian army and its Cuban advisers.
That operation involved 11 U.S. ships, including an aircraft carrier battle group and amphibious task force. Army paratroopers also participated.
A Haitian invasion would not be as difficult as Operation Just Cause, the December 1989 mission to arrest Panamanian Gen. Manuel Noriega, Carroll said. Forces in Panama had the potential for inflicting 10 times more damage than those in Haiti, he said.
Both those assaults did include U.S. casualties: 18 killed and 116 wounded in Grenada, 23 killed and 322 wounded in Panama.
Even facing a limited threat, forces invading Haiti would suffer casualties. For that reason, Carroll said, the United States must plan to meet some sort of organized resistance by mustering the maximum capability to overcome it.
``You can't make the assumption that nobody will fire back,'' Carroll said. ``But I see no indication in my studies whatsoever that they are motivated to resist, or capable of resisting in any fashion. They have been paraded around Port-au-Prince the last couple of weeks in a show of defiance.
``But they just don't have anything with which to fight that wouldn't be immediately jammed down their throats.''
If American citizens are threatened, they have the option of fleeing to the U.S. Embassy. An estimated 3,500 U.S. citizens live in Haiti.
``Whenever there is turmoil, one of the first things is to get those citizens out,'' a former SEAL team commander said in an interview earlier this year. ``SEALs can do that early, provide liaison with the ambassador, and be able to get the information back as to what has happened.
``These guys also can provide security for the ambassador, which they have done in the past. They become his bodyguards and also can provide some pretty awesome firepower. They have satellite-communication capabilities.''
They also can go on the offensive.
On Wednesday, several hundred Marines from the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit, based at Camp Lejeune, N.C., practiced an invasion and rescue operation on Great Inagua Island, Bahamas, about 150 miles northwest of Haiti. They brought with them helicopters, artillery and amphibious assault craft that could play a part in an invasion.
More than two weeks ago, on a remote part of Eglin Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle, about 2,000 other Navy SEALs and Army Rangers from the U.S. Special Operations Command practiced capturing Haiti's main port and seizing airfields.
The Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division conducted a parachute air-drop drill Thursday at Fort Bragg, N.C., in conjunction with air-transport units at adjoining Pope Air Force Base.
Pentagon officials described that exercise as routine. Part of the drill involved securing an airfield, which would be an early objective in an assault on Haiti and is a high priority in many airborne invasion missions.
On Friday, the United States began psychological warfare operations in Haiti.
A specially equipped aircraft flew over the island broadcasting deposed Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide's ``Radio Democracy'' addresses from Washington, where he lives in exile.
Such a strategy, which was employed when the Army dropped leaflets and used loudspeakers to demoralize the populace of Iraq, is often a harbinger of an assault.
The message is aimed at Haiti's commander in chief, Raoul Cedras, and his lieutenants.
``We are trying to convince Cedras the game is up and he had better clear out,'' Carroll said.
Cedras acts as if that is the last thing he will do. ``But he has got to consider his longevity,'' Carroll said. ``And his longevity, once we land and he is still there, is not good.
``If we don't take him into custody, and he is trying to hide and get away on the ground, he could have a `necklace' or worse,'' Carroll said. ``Necklace'' refers to a type of murder committed by putting a burning tire over the victim's head.
``That is a rough program he has been running down there,'' Carroll said. ``He hurt a lot of people and he doesn't have many friends.''
Detailed plans already have been drawn up for securing Port-au-Prince with a three-pronged invasion force. Under the most probable scenario, SEAL teams working independently and Rangers from the 82nd Airborne Division would take the presidential palace, radio station, airport and other key installations.
Then 2,000 Marines would secure the capital, and the 82nd Airborne would fan out through smaller towns.
By all accounts, such an invasion force would make quick work of the Haitian military. There is only one Haitian heavy-weapons unit in Port-au-Prince. It is equipped with six light-armored vehicles, only four of which are operational on any given day. Eight to 10 howitzers are in the port as well. But they are in poor repair and may not be usable.
Still, the mission would not be without danger.
``You can always stumble onto a military unit trying to avoid contact,'' Carroll said. ``There could be a firefight. You can run into booby traps. You can have operational accidents.
``We shot down two of our helicopters in Iraq under ideal conditions. We could clearly make a mistake and fire on the wrong unit in the early phases of the assault. We lost part of a SEAL team in Grenada.''
More problematic than an invasion is what happens in the following weeks, months or years if the United States is forced to maintain an occupation.
U.N. Ambassador Madeleine Albright said Friday that 12 other nations have agreed to contribute up to 4,000 troops to a force that would move into Haiti if the military regime is ousted. Its mission, she said, would be ``peacekeeping and assisting in the reconstitution of a Haitian professional military and police.''
After taking Grenada, U.S. troops remained on the island for more than a year to ensure order was restored. Grenada is a country of 90,000. Haiti has a population of more than 5 million. ILLUSTRATION: Color map by staff
Military actions in the Caribbean
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Two days after Haiti's military leaders expelled human rights
monitors, workers from the Port-au-Prince morgue prepare to remove a
man's body, his elbows bound with rope, that was dumped on a road
near the city's port on Friday.
KEYWORDS: HAITI by CNB