THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, August 20, 1994 TAG: 9408200264
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B3 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MARGARET EDDS, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium: 72 lines
At least 4,400 felonies - including 78 homicides, 151 rapes and 399 robberies - could have been averted if the Allen administration's plan to lock up criminals longer had been in effect between 1986 and 1993, state officials claimed Friday.
If those numbers are adjusted to reflect the gap between actual convictions and crimes reported to police, that means almost 120,000 felonies could be prevented and $2.7 billion in related costs saved in the next decade with Allen's plan, they said.
Some Democrats responded cautiously to the forecast, but a co-chairman of Allen's parole commission said the numbers should convince any doubters that it is time to act.
``These are real cases . . . an analysis of real life in Virginia,'' said former U.S. Attorney Richard Cullen of Richmond at a press conference called to release the data. ``Every day we wait, we are sacrificing Virginians.
``Anyone on the fence that sees this report is going to quickly jump off the fence,'' he said.
The data, prepared by the state's Criminal Justice Research Center, adds a dramatic addition to the pending debate over parole and sentencing reform. Advocates said the numbers are persuasive, both because the research center staff is respected by the legislature and because the data reflect relatively conservative forecasting assumptions.
For instance, prison and court costs were omitted in figuring the financial impact, and unreported crime was not considered in forecasting averted crime.
Allen has called a special session of the legislature for Sept. 19 to consider abolishing parole and revamping sentencing. His commission, which will approve its final recommendations next week, advocates at least doubling the time served by violent criminals, and increasing it up to 700 percent for repeat violent offenders.
To project the impact the changes would have on crime, the research center evaluated about 7,500 cases from 1986-1993 in which individuals who served time for a felony were later convicted of another felony.
Researchers concluded that about 1,644 - or 60 percent - of the cases in which the second crime was violent could have been prevented if the Allen plan had been in effect. About 2,729 non-violent crimes could have been averted, they said.
Overall, about 54 percent of the second-time felonies could have been prevented by the Allen plan, the officials said.
Rick Kern, director of the research center, said the preventable convictions probably reflect from 5 percent to 10 percent of total felony convictions during the period.
But he said he knows of no other single program - preventative or otherwise - that could have so dramatic an effect on crime in so short a time.
What the data shows, said Kern, is that ``a small core of offenders are responsible for a great many crimes.''
Legislators and lobbyists who have been skeptical of the Allen plan said they could not address the numbers without more time for analysis.
But one critic, state Sen. Joseph Gartlan, D-Alexandria, said the approach is consistent with a controversial concept advocated by former U.S. Attorney General William Barr.
Barr, the co-chairman of Allen's parole commission, has long supported the idea that keeping a relatively small group of offenders behind bars for lengthy periods could have dramatic impact on reducing crime and its related costs.
``That theory has been roundly criticized and challenged around the country,'' Gartlan said.
KEYWORDS: CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM CRIME PAROLE REFORM by CNB