THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, August 27, 1994 TAG: 9408270245
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B3 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MARGARET EDDS, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium: 63 lines
Democratic lawmakers scurrying to respond to Gov. George F. Allen's plan to abolish parole are lining up national consultants to help them crunch numbers.
Christopher Baird, senior vice-president of the National Council on Crime and Delinquency, said Thursday he has agreed to review the administration's claim that almost 120,000 crimes could be prevented over the next decade with the Allen plan.
``I think it's probably a pretty ludicrous position,'' said Baird, who was contacted by state Sen. Joseph V. Gartlan Jr., D-Alexandria, one of the few vocal legislative critics of the governor's proposal.
Meanwhile, as several prominent Democrats appeared to be joining the Allen push for sentencing overhaul, the Democratic floor leader in the House of Delegates injected a cautionary note.
``We need to keep in mind that it's easy to talk about bonds, because bonds are passing the cost on to future generations,'' said Del. C. Richard Cranwell, D-Roanoke. ``But what does this mean for future generations?''
Allen said earlier this week that he'll propose financing a roughly $850 million prison construction program through a variety of bond issues, including voter-approved general obligation bonds. Such bonds are backed by the ``full faith and credit'' of the commonwealth.
He hopes to unveil the complete proposal next week, Allen said.
``I understand that politics are driving every bit of this,'' Cranwell said. ``But we need to take a very measured, rationed approach. . . There's more than one road to Damascus.''
The Council on Crime and Delinquency is considered the nation's oldest and largest criminal research organization. The group advocates community correctional programs and alternatives to incarceration.
Gartlan said he contacted Baird partially because he believes spending ``$850 million to get at a relatively minor piece of the crime problem is a senseless policy.''
Gartlan said one hint that Allen's so-called Proposal X would have minimal impact on the state's overall crime problem is found in the figures of the state's Criminal Justice Research Center.
The center, which floated the 120,000 estimate, also said last week that 78 murders could have been averted between 1986 and 1993 if the plan had been in effect. In a study released last year, the same group said there were almost 1,700 murders with handguns in Virginia between 1987 and 1992, noted Gartlan.
The ``murders averted'' figure represents less than 5 percent of the handgun murders alone. ``That analysis shows how little this does to eliminate crime,'' he said.
Some other Democratic lawmakers said this week they're trying to arrange reviews of the Allen numbers by national consultants.
``We feel confident of the numbers we've offered,'' said Ken Stroupe, Allen's spokesman. ``They're welcome to bring in anyone they want to scrutinize them.''
KEYWORDS: NATIONAL COUNCIL ON CRIME AND DELINQUENCY
CRIME PAROLE
by CNB