THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, September 2, 1994 TAG: 9409020045
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A22 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 54 lines
The news of a cease-fire by the Provisional Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland has been greeted with jubilation in Catholic neighborhoods in Northern Ireland, and with sullen suspicion in Protestant areas. Much as the whole world wishes for peace in that strife-torn area, this dichotomy bodes ill for the long haul.
The IRA, after all, did not give the governments in London and Dublin what they asked for: a permanent end to violence. Instead, the IRA provided only ``complete cessation of military operations,'' reserving the option of resuming the terrorist war. Gerry Adams, leader of the IRA's political-front group, Sinn Fein, said in a speech on the day of the cease-fire that the war is not over, but that it has merely entered ``a different phase.''
Indeed, there are so many unanswered questions that it is impossible not to look to the future with some trepidation. How, for instance, will the province be policed? Will the Royal Ulster Constabulary be able to freely walk the streets of Catholic neighborhoods to carry out normal policing activities? Or will these become ``no go'' zones for official security forces, effectively ceding these areas to arbitrary IRA rule?
And what about IRA prisoners in British jails? The IRA says their release will be a top priority in any coming negotiations. That will not sit well with Ulster's Protestants.
The final shape of any agreement is hard to envision. The IRA is pledged to see the Union Jack hauled down forever. The Protestants are equally determined to keep it flying high. Unless Britain has secretly decided to abandon Ulster's Protestants (not inconceivable), compromise seems difficult to imagine.
So, in spite of the euphoria, Northern Ireland might well be in for some very rough times. Conor Cruise O'Brien, a former Republic of Ireland government minister and one of the most perceptive observers of Northern Ireland, predicts large-scale and highly disruptive street demonstrations by Catholics to pressure the British into agreeing to a withdrawal. Protestants will respond in kind and Britain will be under great pressure not to intervene.
Once British forces are detested equally by both sides, O'Brien predicts, British withdrawal will follow, accompanied by something approaching civil war.
Millions of dollars in U.S. aid, immediately pledged by President Clinton, is not likely to change these sober realities. It is to be profoundly hoped that O'Brien's scenario is wrong, but what might be unfolding in Northern Ireland is not peace, but simply a different kind of war. by CNB