THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, September 5, 1994 TAG: 9409050039
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MARGARET EDDS, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 327 lines
Look for Ollie North to launch an offensive on Iran-Contra.
Look for Chuck Robb, newly off the missing-in-action list, to make a show of force featuring Democratic Party faithful.
Look for Marshall Coleman and Doug Wilder to escalate their guerrilla tactics.
Look out, Virginia. It's Labor Day, and the state's U.S. Senate race of the century is officially underway. There are 64 days to go in what promises to be the most raucous, expensive and exhausting state campaign in memory.
``It's unlike anything I've ever experienced. It's fundamentally different and unique,'' said Mark Goodin, consultant to the North campaign. ``You have four candidates with high name I.D. . . . very aggressive combatants . . . a midterm president whose negatives are high, (and) voter anger with the system that's higher than I've ever seen it.''
Not to mention a Republican nominee, in North, whose 1980s dip into covert warfare and diplomacy has made him a polarizing figure of national dimensions. And a Democratic incumbent, in Robb, whose 1980s dip into the seamier side of night life in Virginia Beach has tattered his one-time image as a presidential contender.
``This is a year,'' Goodin said, ``where you have to throw away the play books.''
Foremost, this is an election about Oliver North.
It is the former Marine lieutenant colonel who has brought an international focus to the state, who is driving out-of-state fund-raising likely to make this the most costly Senate race in American history and whose messianic appeal is a cause for celebration in some quarters,dismay in others.
Perhaps the key strategic question in the race is this:
Are voters already so sure of where they stand on North that, despite all the campaign razzmatazz, there's a limit to how much support he can get?
That leads to the follow-up questions:
Will the electorate be divided four ways, three ways or two ways come Nov. 8?
And, finally, can North expand his base by also turning the campaign into a referendum on Bill Clinton's presidency?
If North can expand this to a two-dimensional election, so that it's also about Bill Clinton, it moves him from a fringe candidate to someone who could win under the right circumstances,'' said Paul Goldman, a former chairman of the state Democratic Party.
Over the next several weeks, the candidates will be fighting to define North.
Robb signaled his approach recently, calling this a contest of ``Mainstream vs. Extreme.'' He'll point to North's opposition to both abortion and an assault weapons ban, as well as his willingness to give tax breaks to parents who send their children to private schools, as places where North is out of touch with Virginians.
But, analysts say, it may be difficult to paint North as a philosophical extremist while such popular politicians as Gov. George F. Allen campaign at his side.
The trickier, but potentially more promising, tack is to portray North as a personal extremist. The goal, said David Doak, a consultant to Robb's campaign, will be to show ``excessiveness in the person himself, that he doesn't have any bounds on his zeal.''
The North campaign promises to counter the expected assault with an offensive that could begin as early as today.
``We will run at Iran-Contra, not away from it,'' Goodin said. North will ``talk about it a lot. You invite inquiries. (You show) a willingness to go before the voters in a variety of formats to say, `I know this is in your craw. I not only am willing, I am eager to talk about it. . . . I did the best I could under awful circumstances.' ''
Meanwhile, former Democratic Gov. Wilder and former Republican Attorney General Coleman have a two-tiered task.
The independents first have to convince voters that they have a better chance than Robb of beating North, whose support is believed to be more solidified than any of the other three. Then they have to beat North. Starting from behind in money and the polls, they face an uphill job.
But both Wilder and Coleman are scrappy fighters, and neither has shown any indication of backing out.
Coleman's campaign confirmed that the Northern Virginia attorney, formerly from Waynesboro, will inject several hundred thousand dollars of his own money into the campaign. And Wilder will stage the mega-event of the fall, a fund-raiser with entertainers Bill Cosby and Quincy Jones later this month, possibly at the Richmond Coliseum.
As for tactics, Coleman's and Wilder's are apparently the same. ``We're going to be more direct in talking about the flawed candidacies of the other two,'' said Coleman campaign manager Anson Franklin, voicing a message echoed in the Wilder camp.
``We'll start to see upward movement by mid-September, based on the realization that Chuck is dead in the water,'' predicted Wilder campaign manager Glenn Davidson.
With polls showing Robb and North neck-and-neck at about 30 percent each and Wilder and Coleman well behind, Robb's goal is to portray the election as a two-way race.
The North campaign, which has made a stronger-than-expected showing this summer, wants to keep a multi-candidate field. ``We feel good about a three-way race,'' said Goodin. ``We feel very good about a four-way race.''
On the campaign trail, North has appeared folksy and spontaneous. In one memorable moment, he accepted a challenge during a radio call-in show to spit a stream of water through the gap in his front teeth at a target some 10 feet away. He hit the bull's eye.
Robb, in contrast, has spent much of the summer in Washington attending to Senate duties. On the trail, he appears more formal, often sticking with traditional courthouse politicking.
Encountering a stack of confiscated guns at the Essex County sheriff's office, Robb singled out a military-style, .45-caliber handgun. ``I could probably field-strip this if I was pushed,'' said Robb, a former Marine lieutenant. But when challenged by a reporter to do so, he declined.
If luck has run lately with North, Goodin said the campaign isn't looking back. ``We've had a good summer,'' he said. ``But whatever bump we get from that will be short-lived.'' MEMO: Staff writer David Poole contributed to this story.
ILLUSTRATION: THE CAMPAIGN: BEHIND THE SCENES
On Labor Day, the traditional beginning of the campaign season, the
four camps are considering different strategies for reaching the
same goal - the U.S. Senate. Each candidate is relying on important
players to help him map his path.
[Color photos of the candidates]
J. MARSHALL COLEMAN
Campaign manager Anson Franklin: Ran Coleman's 1981 gubernatorial
campaign against Robb. Coleman's top political assistant when he
was attorney general in the late 1970s. He now runs a Northern
Virginia public issues consulting firm.
Republican Sen. John W. Warner: Endorsement of Coleman gave the
campaign a greater sense of legitimacy. Coleman also has support
from Republicans Linwood Holton, former governor; and former
Secretary of State Lawrence S. Eagleburger.
Many leaders of the group that backed Ross Perot's 1992 independent
presidential bid favor Coleman.
OLIVER L. NORTH
Campaign consultant Mark W. Goodin: Spokesman for the Bush
presidential campaign in 1988. Resigned as communications director
of the Republican National Committee in 1989 after signing off on a
letter to GOP party leaders that hinted at homosexuality on the part
of House Speaker Tom Foley, D-Wash.
Media consultant Mike Murphy: Adviser to several successful GOP
challengers, including New Jersey Gov. Christie Todd Whitman and
Michigan Gov. John Engler.
Communications Director Mark Merritt: Worked on Pat Robertson's
1988 presidential race. The team member who's been with North the
longest, since 1990.
CHARLES S. ROBB
Campaign manager Susan Platt: First worked with Robb when he headed
the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Has managed
only one previous campaign, a 7th District congressional race in
1990.
Media adviser and campaign consultant David Doak: Managed
gubernatorial wins by Robb in Virginia and Mark White in Texas in
1981. Worked on Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey's unsuccessful 1992
presidential bid.
Robb is also relying on his wife, Lynda Bird Johnson Robb, some
longtime buddies, and organizers of such traditional Democratic
constituencies as teachers, union members, and the gay and lesbian
community.
L. DOUGLAS WILDER
None of the inner circle from Wilder's winning 1989 bid for
governor is back.
Campaign manager Glenn Davidson: Rose through the Wilder
administration from Washington liaison to press secretary to chief
of staff. First time at the helm of a political campaign.
Deputy campaign manager Thomisina Binga: Retired Richmond school
teacher. Shepherding a statewide network of African-American
ministers backing Wilder.
DETAILED PROFILES ON PAGE A2
CHARACTER OF THE CAMPAIGNS
Oliver L. North
WHO'S IN:
Forget the notion that wild-eyed zealots are running the North
campaign.
Pass through the security buzzer into the inner sanctum of North's
headquarters in Chantilly, and you'll find a hard-edged, can-do,
top-notch political machine.
``The key thing'' in picking the all-male command team, says
communications director Mark Merritt, ``was win records.''
At the top is Mark W. Goodin, campaign consultant. The line on
Goodin: heroes, in no particular order - Hubert Humphrey, Ronald
Reagan, Martin Luther King Jr., Abraham Lincoln . . . former adviser
to South Carolina Sen. Strom Thurmond . . . spokesman for the Bush
presidential campaign in 1988 . . . black eye when forced to resign
in 1989 as communications director of the Republican National
Committee . . . rebounded with government relations/political
strategy consulting firm whose clients include the city of Chicago
and the states of Illinois and South Carolina.
``Getting hoisted on my petard did me some good,'' Goodin said,
recalling his RNC reprimand for signing off on a letter to GOP party
leaders that hinted at homosexuality on the part of House Speaker
Tom Foley, D-Washington. ``It taught me that winning isn't
everything.''
Still, he says, ``my style is aggressive, attack don't defend . . .
I'm a strategic street fighter.''
Completing the team are media consultant Mike Murphy - irreverent,
wise-cracking adviser to several recently successful GOP
challengers, including New Jersey Gov. Christie Todd Whitman and
Michigan Gov. John Engler; pollster Glen Bolger, whose firm had a
string of successes in the 1992 election cycle; campaign manager Tim
Carpenter, who runs administration and day-to-day operations; and
Merritt, a veteran of Pat Robertson's 1988 presidential race and the
team member who's been with North the longest, since 1990.
WHO'S OUT:
See Marshall Coleman, Who's In. Many GOP moderates left the state
Republican convention in June saying they'd never vote for Ollie
North. Lately, some have softened, partly because of distaste for
Bill Clinton, partly because North has had a relatively free summer
ride. Time will tell whether the tenuous bond will hold when the
going gets tough.
Charles S. Robb
WHO'S IN:
In contrast to charges that he dallied with young women a decade
ago, Robb has placed a woman in a higher position of authority than
any of his rivals.
Campaign manager Susan Platt first worked with Robb when he headed
the national Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. She oversaw
large special projects, including fund-raising dinners.
Critics note that Platt has managed only one previous campaign, a
7th District congressional race in 1990. But Platt snaps back with a
pointed reminder of some of her rivals' failures: ``I've got 16
years in politics. Have I done anything with George Bush's
unsuccessful re-election campaign? No, I haven't.''
What Platt might lack in campaign experience is supplied by media
adviser and overall campaign consultant David Doak.
Doak's Washington-based firm is one of the venerable and perenially
successful institutions in a field rife with change. Doak broke
into the national spotlight in 1981, managing gubernatorial wins by
Robb in Virginia and Mark White in Texas. His client list reads
like a Who's Who of Democratic pols. He's known for painting a
thorough portrait of his own candidate before going on the attack.
But his record is not without slip-ups. Ads for Sen. Bob Kerrey,
D-Neb., didn't ignite Kerry's 1992 presidential bid.
Robb's also relying on his wife, Lynda Bird Johnson Robb; some
longtime buddies, including treasurer Alson Smith, a Winchester
businessman and former delegate; and organizers in some traditional
Democratic constituencies, including teachers, union members and the
gay-lesbian community.
WHO'S OUT:
See Doug Wilder, Who's In. A critical test for Robb is retaining a
substantial bloc of African-American support in the face of
Wilder's independent bid. Wilder is a hero to many black voters, and
he's siphoning off support in what's usually a key Democratic
constituency. About 18 percent of Virginia's population is black.
Robb's also got to convince disaffected Democrats that defeating
North matters more than his past personal problems.
L. Douglas Wilder
WHO'S IN:
For Wilder, it's a whole new team this time around. None of the
inner circle from his winning 1989 bid for governor is back.
Glenn Davidson, who rose through the Wilder administration from
Washington liaison to press secretary to chief of staff, is managing
the campaign. Upbeat and an unquenchable Wilder loyalist, Davidson
has stayed in his boss's good graces longer than many previous
advisers. This is his first time at the helm of a political
campaign.
Thomisina Binga, a retired Richmond school teacher, is Davidson's
deputy, shepherding a statewide network of African-American
ministers backing Wilder. And the campaign consultant is Gerald J.
Austin, who managed the Rev. Jesse Jackson's 1988 presidential
campaign and has advised Sens. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and
Paul Wellstone of Minnesota.
Wilder has substantial business backing in the Richmond area,
including support from retailer Stuart Siegal, CSX rail executive
Hays Watkins, power company executive Thomas Capps, and grocery
store executive Robert S. Ukrop.
As always, Wilder keeps close counsel with himself.
WHO'S OUT:
Alternately labeled quirky and brilliant, Paul Goldman was
considered the back-room genius in Wilder's victories for lieutenant
governor in 1985 and governor in 1989. This year he's on the
sidelines. Insiders say Goldman took Wilder at his word when the
former governor dropped out of Senate contention last spring.
Goldman helped promote state Sen. Virgil Goode for the Democratic
nomination. When Wilder got back in, so the story goes, each waited
for the other to call first. Neither did.
Mark Warner, a Northern Virginia cellular phone magnate and major
force in the 1989 campaign, is Democratic Party chairman, backing
Robb. Chesapeake builder Dan Hoffler, who headed fund raising, is
behind North. Several prominent African-American ministers,
including Bishop L.E. Willis Sr. of Norfolk, are for Robb.
J. Marshall Coleman
WHO'S IN:
If Coleman wins, he can look to Republican Sen. John W. Warner as
patron saint rather than colleague. It's Warner's endorsement that
has given legitimacy to the Coleman bid. Warner has made it
abundantly clear that he doesn't think North has the right stuff to
represent Virginia in the Senate.
Coleman also has support from another hero of the GOP's moderate
wing, former Gov. Linwood Holton, and from former Secretary of State
Lawrence S. Eagleburger.
Many of the state leaders of the group that organized to back Ross
Perot's 1992 independent presidential bid favor Coleman, although
that backing became less important last week when they failed in an
attempt to get a slot on the ballot as the Virginia Independent
Party.
In a replay of the 1981 Robb-Coleman gubernatorial race, Anson
Franklin is managing Coleman's campaign while Doak is helping lead
Robb's. Franklin was Coleman's top political assistant when he was
attorney general in the late 1970s. He now runs a Northern Virginia
public issues consulting firm.
WHO'S OUT:
Dwight Schar, a Washington-area home builder, helped bankroll
Coleman's 1989 gubernatorial campaign to the tune of about $1
million. Schar says he ``still good friends'' with Coleman, but this
year he's backing North.
KEYWORDS: U.S. SENATE RACE CAMPAIGN PROFILE by CNB