THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, September 15, 1994 TAG: 9409150473
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE AND MARGARET EDDS, STAFF WRITERS
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Long : 155 lines
L. Douglas Wilder abruptly canceled his Senate campaign schedule on Wednesday after two polls showed him trailing badly in what essentially has become a two-person race between Democrat Charles S. Robb and Republican Oliver L. North.
A source within the Wilder campaign said that it is uncertain whether the former governor will resume his independent campaign and that Wilder is ``taking stock of where everything stands.''
The Washington Post reported that a source close to Wilder said the candidate is set to announce his withdrawal from the race. The source said Wilder told him in a telephone conversation Wednesday night that he was ``biting the bullet'' and dropping out.
Wilder, who has repeatedly vowed to remain a candidate to the end, is scheduled to issue a statement today. Asked whether Wilder is dropping out, press secretary Dan Conley said, ``He's still in the race right now.'' The 63-year-old former Democratic governor is a candidate ``until further notice,'' Conley said.
The campaign reportedly was disappointed by polls conducted in recent days. One survey, by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md., showed Robb with 33 percent support, North with 28 percent, independent J. Marshall Coleman with 15 percent, and Wilder trailing with 12 percent.
Another poll, conducted by Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond, showed North with 34 percent support, Robb with 31 percent, Wilder with 13 percent and Coleman with 10 percent.
Both surveys were taken after a Sept. 6 televised debate at Hampden-Sydney College. Wilder said in an interview Sunday that the debate had propelled him within striking distance of Robb.
But if Wilder's campaign was disappointed by the polls, many Democrats were both jubilant and surprised that one survey showed Robb leading North and another had him trailing only slightly.
In interviews earlier in the week, Robb partisans from Hampton Roads to Southwest Virginia to the Washington suburbs had predicted that the incumbent would be trailing - and perhaps badly - in the next published polls. Their concern stemmed from the fact that North has been pummeling Robb with paid advertising and campaigned vigorously this summer while Robb remained in Washington attending to Senate business.
Campaign strategists were at a loss to explain the differences in the two surveys, although some of the gaps could be attributed to the 3.5 percent margin of error in each poll. Political scientists said it is clear, though, that the contest has been reduced to a two-person race in which Wilder and Coleman appear to be little more than spoilers.
``Both polls confirm Robb's strategy that it is a two-tiered race and he's the only viable alternative to Oliver North,'' said Thomas R. Morris, a political scientist who is president of Emory and Henry College. ``It has to be interpreted as good news for Robb. Even the Democratic faithful were openly questioning his low profile during the summer.''
Democrats lost no time in trying to strong-arm the independents out of the race and focus attention on North, the central figure in the Iran-Contra affair. ``The only candidate who can prevent Oliver North from getting in the Senate is Chuck Robb,'' said Mark Warner, chairman of the state Democratic Party. ``Therefore, a vote for either Wilder or Coleman is really a vote for Oliver North.''
While Republicans questioned Robb's lead in the Mason-Dixon poll, they acknowledged that the contest has boiled down to a tight race between Robb and North. ``This is a dead heat and it could swing either way,'' said Mark Merritt, a spokesman for North.
``I don't believe it. I do not believe it,'' said Donald W. Huffman, a former state Republican chairman from Roanoke, of the Mason-Dixon results. ``When Robb comes out here, nobody pays any attention. . . . There's so much enthusiasm for Oliver North, it's unbelievable.''
According to political scientists, the polls raise two key strategic questions for the remainder of the campaign:
First, is North capable of expanding beyond his Republican base, or is he limited to a support ceiling of about 35 percent to 40 percent of the electorate?
``For the past two months, North has dramatically outspent his opponent, he has received the most attention and done the most advertising, and he's picked up no ground on Robb,'' said Mark Rozell, who said he considers Mason-Dixon the more authoritative of the two polls. ``That says that there are many voters out there who are unpersuadable on Ollie North.''
Second, does the closeness of the two-man race mean a flurry of negative advertising is imminent?
Both Robb and North plan to unleash major television advertising campaigns soon. Strategists on both sides predicted that things will get ugly.
The Mason-Dixon survey of 843 Virginia voters showed that both Robb and North have made slight but steady gains over the summer at the expense of the independents. In June, Robb was leading North, 28 percent to 21 percent. From June to September, meanwhile, Coleman dropped from 25 percent to 15 percent and Wilder fell from 22 percent to 12.
Robb's favorable rating has remained relatively stable during the period, while North - who has waged an aggressive campaign to improve his image - has seen his favorable rating move up from 27 percent to 32 percent of voters. Still, 46 percent of voters view him unfavorably, the highest negative rating for any of the four candidates.
Wilder is close behind with a 43 percent unfavorable rating, followed by Robb with 39 percent and Coleman with 24 percent.
In the VCU poll of 807 voters, however, Wilder had the highest unfavorable rating - 53 percent - followed by North with 47 percent, Robb with 45 percent, and Coleman with 33 percent.
Particularly distressing to the Wilder camp may be the Mason-Dixon measure of black voter sentiment. Robb was leading among black voters surveyed by 44 percent to 36 percent. Wilder, who was the nation's first elected black governor, had been relying on a strong base of support from that group.
However, the VCU poll showed Wilder with 54 percent of the black vote, compared with 24 percent for Robb.
In the Mason-Dixon poll, Robb led decisively in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, while North led by smaller margins in central Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. The poll showed them neck and neck in Roanoke, Southwest Virginia and Southside.
The VCU poll also showed Robb leading in Tidewater and the Washington suburbs. It showed North far ahead in southern Virginia and northwest Virginia, and with a smaller though substantial lead in Western Virginia.
Wilder's lunchtime remarks to the Roanoke Kiwanis Club sounded more like a recapitulation of his career than a campaign speech. Challenged by a minister to prove that he is not running because of vindictiveness toward Robb, Wilder pointed to how he initially dropped out of the race in January.
``I didn't ask for a price. I didn't ask for an ambassadorship. I didn't ask for a position. I got out of the way,'' he said. He re-entered the race after Robb won the Democratic primary in June.
After the lunch, Wilder canceled an appearance at a health-care forum and headed back to Richmond. Carolyn Word, his local escort, said she was leading Wilder's caravan to the scheduled forum in Salem. At one point, she noticed that the driver of Wilder's car was honking at her, but she kept going. When she got to Salem, Wilder was no longer following her.
She called Wilder's Richmond headquarters, Word said, and was told that an emergency had come up.
The Mason-Dixon poll was conducted Sept. 8 through 11. The VCU poll was taken Sept. 8 through 13. MEMO: Dwayne Yancey of The Roanoke Times & World-News contributed to this
report.
ILLUSTRATION: Graphic
Two Polls, Two Leaders
Robb ...33 percent
North ...28 percent
Coleman... 15 percent
Wilder....12 percent
Source: Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research
North ...34 percent
Robb ...31 percent
Wilder ...13 percent
Coleman ... 10 percent
Source: Virginia Commonweatlh University
Staff graphic
Robb, North Gain in Poll
Source: Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc.
For copy of graphic, see microfilm
KEYWORDS: U.S. SENATE RACE CANDIDATE POLL by CNB