THE LEDGER-STAR
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, September 15, 1994 TAG: 9409150688
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY JIM STRATTON, NEWPORT NEWS DAILY PRESS
DATELINE: NEWPORT NEWS LENGTH: Medium: 87 lines
If the United States is intent on invading Haiti, policy-makers should be ready to commit troops to the country for at least five years, a past president of the Haitian Senate said Wednesday.
That's how long it will take, said Louis Noisin, to stabilize the country's volatile political forces and begin to improve conditions for a nation that is the poorest in the Western Hemisphere.
``It is not going to be easy,'' said Noisin, now a professor and assistant to the president for multi-cultural affairs and affirmative action at Christopher Newport University. ``They will have to stay at least five years to prepare for that transition.''
And while Noisin does not expect the Haitian military to put up much of a fight initially, he predicts Americans may find themselves drawn into a protracted guerrilla war when, and if, ousted President Jean-Bertrand Aristide is returned to power. Noisin says U.S. forces would be well-served to impose a dusk-to-dawn curfew if they invade and subsequently take the island.
``You will not see one person in military dress in the streets,'' he said. ``But the danger is the sniper fire. Right now, you've got a lot of people willing to become heroes in Haiti.''
Noisin was one of the architects of a new Haitian constitution created after the overthrow of Jean-Claude ``Baby Doc'' Duvalier in 1986. He also served about four months in the Haitian Senate in 1988 after being elected in January of that year. That election, however, was considered tainted by both many Haitians and outside observers who believe the military rigged the results to allow their choice for president to win.
Noisin was dismissed from his Senate seat in June 1988 when a military junta deposed then-Haitian President Leslie Manigat. Three months later there was another military coup, and Noisin left the country, saying, ``things had become too dangerous.''
Today, Noisin says an invasion is ``probably the only pragmatic thing to do'' - but not because he believes Aristide can restore democracy to the country. An invasion, he said, may help bring economic stability.
``If you put 20,000 people there they will have to spend millions every month,'' he said. ``It's not that I agree with an invasion, but when you can't change things I believe you must turn them to your advantage.
``And an invasion, I think, is inevitable.''
If Aristide is returned to power, Noisin says the president will ``not be able to do anything'' despite his landslide 1990 election victory. Noisin says Aristide's three years out of the country and the fact that many of the educated classes don't support him will be too much to overcome.
He worries, though, that Aristide will seek revenge on those who drove him from the country and those who fail to support him. In the past, Aristide reportedly has used power to frighten critics and during his time in office, he was quoted as praising the practice of ``necklacing'' - a method of execution in which a burning tire is placed around the neck of the victim.
He has more recently talked of reconciliation, but Noisin is skeptical.
``The only thing he talks about is vengeance,'' said Noisin. ``It's exactly like a drug addict. But he's addicted to violence.''
That, however, is one of the most serious charges against Lt. Gen. Raoul Cedras and the other military leaders who have controlled the country since Aristide's 1991 ouster.
Under their rule, international observers report that many Haitians have been raped and killed by members of the military. The Washington Post reported in July that the trademark style of execution under Cedras is for the victim to have his face scraped away.
Noisin says he has heard those stories but believes in many cases they are exaggerated. Cedras and the military, he said, are doing what they have been trained to do - maintain order.
``Many of the people being killed are those looking for trouble - Aristide supporters,'' he said. ``From what I hear, many people are not against Cedras.''
If it were up to him, says Noisin, he would pay both Aristide and the top military leaders $10 million to resign. Then, he said, the country could hold new elections.
``But it's too late for that,'' he said. ``I don't believe anything will stop an invasion.'' ILLUSTRATION: Photo by KENNETH SILVER, Newport News Daily Press
Louis Noisin points to a map of the Caribbean during an interview
yesterday. He is concerned that Aristide will seek revenge on those
who drove him from the country and those who fail to support him.
KEYWORDS: HAITI by CNB