THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, September 27, 1994 TAG: 9409270332
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium: 98 lines
Republican Oliver L. North has gained a slight edge in support and - for the first time - popularity over incumbent Democrat Charles S. Robb in their heated race for the U.S. Senate, according to a new poll.
Of 827 registered voters surveyed last Thursday through Saturday, 35 percent supported North, 33 percent backed Robb and 18 percent said they would vote for independent J. Marshall Coleman. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. of Columbia, Md.
Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon, said the race technically is a dead heat because North's slight lead falls within the poll's 3.5 percent margin of error. But Coker added that there are a number of trends that show North rising while Robb appears ``dead in the water.''
According to the poll, Robb's popularity with voters has dropped to its lowest level since mid-1992, when the senator was beleaguered by a nationally televised report questioning his marital fidelity and his social relations in the mid-1980s with a Virginia Beach party crowd.
Forty-six percent of those polled last week said they have an unfavorable opinion of Robb, while only 29 percent said they viewed him positively. Robb's unfavorable ratings surged by seven percentage points since the last Mason-Dixon poll two weeks ago.
Coker said Robb's popularity ratings are the lowest of any U.S. senator in the 47 states his company surveys.
Although North also continues to be plagued by high negative ratings, the poll shows that, for the first time, voters view him more charitably than Robb. Thirty-five percent said they have positive opinions of North, while 45 percent voiced negative feelings.
Two weeks ago, North had a 32 percent positive rating and 46 percent negative rating.
The poll suggests that Robb did not receive an expected boost when independent L. Douglas Wilder dropped out of the race on Sept. 15. Robb was leading North by five percentage points at the time. Many Democrats predicted that Wilder's strong base of support among black voters would transfer to Robb.
But instead of moving to Robb, the poll suggests that many black voters have become undecided about whom to support. In the two weeks since Wilder's withdrawal, the number of undecided black voters has increased from 13 percent to 34 percent.
During the same time, Robb has seen his black support increase only marginally, from 44 percent to 48 percent. Coleman made a larger inroad on black support than Robb, seeing his support jump from 5 percent to 14 percent. North's black support doubled to 4 percent.
Coker said the results suggest that Robb may have a difficult time motivating black voters - who traditionally make up close to 17 percent of the electorate and overwhelmingly vote for Democrats.
``If black voters don't come over to Robb and turn out, he could wind up a loser,'' Coker said. ``The more white the turnout, the worse it looks for Robb.''
Among white voters, 40 percent backed North, 31 percent Robb and 19 percent Coleman.
``Given what I'm seeing, I think everything is heading against Robb,'' Coker said.
Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University, attributed Robb's showing to his lackluster campaign so far and to voters' extreme dissatisfaction with President Clinton. Robb has voted in support of Clinton's agenda 94 percent of the time - a fact North has noted in almost every stump speech. Clinton is scheduled to appear at a Northern Virginia fund-raiser for Robb next Monday.
Despite the polls, Holsworth said Robb is still in a strong position to win the election if he can motivate blacks. ``The demographics favor Robb,'' he said. ``But he needs to provide a compelling reason to vote for him.''
North has run an aggressive television advertising campaign this summer and fall to improve his public image while Robb has barely been visible.
Robb, appearing at a news conference in Richmond with Treasury Secretary Lloyd Bentsen, said he was not surprised by the poll. ``Oliver North has had the opportunity to pretty much define the race, and the other two candidates, throughout the summer,'' Robb said.
Burt Rohrer, a spokesman for Robb, said that situation is about to change.
North ``has been spending huge amounts to shape the campaign in ways that mislead the casual observer,'' Rohrer said. ``We'll have an opportunity to set that straight in the very near future.''
Mark Merritt, a spokesman for North, predicted that Robb will become nasty. ``The obvious thing about this poll is that it's going to trigger, perhaps prematurely, Robb's negative TV campaign,'' he said. ``The only thing he can try to do is bring us down to his level.''
For Coleman, the poll showed the first upsurge in support since the independent entered the race last June. Anson Franklin, Coleman's campaign manager, was elated.
``The poll shows that voters can't abide by Robb and they can't abide by North,'' Franklin said. ``They're looking for an alternative.''
The survey showed North leading in rural areas such as Southwestern Virginia and Southside. North also has a lead in the Richmond metropolitan area. Robb is running strongest in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads and the Roanoke-Lynchburg area.
KEYWORDS: U.S. SENATE RACE VIRGINIA CANDIDATES POLLS by CNB