THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, October 10, 1994 TAG: 9410100032
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: NORTH CAROLINA
SOURCE: BY BETTY MITCHELL GRAY, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 106 lines
As the 1994 campaign enters its final stage, state Republican leaders say they are on the march in coastal North Carolina and hope to score gains in the General Assembly in November similar to those the GOP expects in the nation's congressional races.
Once a traditional Democratic stronghold, coastal North Carolina is one of the regions of the state where Republicans have made the most dramatic gains in the last two decades.
``The basic explanation is that things are changing,'' said John Hood, vice president of the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank in Raleigh. He said several factors have combined to make GOP candidates in the region more attractive to voters - even in areas where Democrats outnumber Republicans.
The area has seen an influx of retirees in recent years, and they have come from states with strong Republican parties, according to Hood and others. This influx of new voters has coincided with declines in the traditionally Democratic black communities, increases in the number of viable Republican candidates and the aging of the traditionally Democratic coalition that was formed during the New Deal of the 1930s.
``In the east, there has been clear progress for Republicans,'' said Ted Arrington, head of the political science department at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.
``It looks like a long-term trend.''
Now, rather than taking the area for granted, the Democratic Party often has to fight to win re-election in many coastal districts, said Tres Glenn, state Republican Party strategist.
``Things definitely look good for us this year,'' Glenn said. ``Yes, we've come a long way. The Democrats can't take the area for granted any more.''
The Republican Party gains are clear.
In a region where Republican legislators were virtually unknown 20 years ago, today the GOP holds at least one state House or Senate seat in most of the counties along the state's central and southern coasts.
Republicans now hold 42 of 120 House seats and 11 of 50 Senate seats in the General Assembly, including four of 12 House seats and one of six Senate seats representing coastal counties.
That's an increase from one coastal Senate seat and one coastal House seat held by Republicans 10 years ago.
And if John Schrote, Currituck County Republican, defeats W.C. ``Bill'' Owens Jr., Pasquotank County Democrat, in the race for the 1st House District seat, Dare County will become the only coastal county from the Virginia border to the Cape Fear River without at least one GOP legislator.
``Because of the potential gains in Congress, the Republican Party . . . is on a roll. It's got momentum,'' Hood said. ``Obviously it's going to carry over to the General Assembly elections.''
The most surprising GOP gains in General Assembly races along the coast in recent years were made in 1992, when voters in three House districts in the region chose Republicans over Democratic incumbents - some in districts where registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans more than two-to-one.
In the four-county 2nd House District that includes Beaufort, Hyde and parts of Craven and Pitt counties, voters elected the first Republican state representative since Reconstruction, choosing challenger Zeno L. Edwards Jr. over a Democratic incumbent who had represented the district almost 20 years.
In Craven County, John Nichols, a Republican banker, defeated a six-term Democratic incumbent for the 3rd District seat, and in Carteret County, Republican challenger Jean Preston, a former Democrat, defeated a 7-term Democratic incumbent for the 4th District seat.
At the time, the defeat of three longtime Democratic incumbents surprised some Democratic leaders, who said their party was simply outworked by the challengers.
``It does show that the Republican Party is working harder in the East than we've been working,'' said Bill Hodges, of Washington, former Democratic Party chairman from the 1st Congressional District. ``The Republican organization is as strong as it's ever been. They've been doing a better job of getting out their vote than we did.''
Republican strategists generally believe their best chances of picking up additional seats in the legislature lie outside of northeastern North Carolina, in Carteret and New Hanover counties where Republican registration is heaviest.
But their eastern victories in 1992 showed that in many coastal regions, party registration is a less reliable indicator of Republican Party strength than past voting behavior.
In the past, eastern voters often registered Democratic, regardless of party preference, in order to vote in primaries because the local Republican Party was often weak and could mount few primary challenges. This tradition has tended to mask GOP strength in a district, Hood said.
And a strong campaign by Walter B. Jones Jr., Democrat-turned-Republican challenger to U.S. Rep. Martin Lancaster in the 3rd Congressional District, could boost vote totals for area Republican General Assembly candidates by 3 or 4 percent, according to GOP strategists.
As the Republican Party strengthens in eastern North Carolina in coming years, voters should see differences in General Assembly campaigns in the future, regardless of the outcome of this year's elections. MEMO: COUNTY LEGISLATORS
Here are the counties in eastern North Carolina that are represented
in the state legislature by a Republican senator: Carteret, New
Hanover, Onslow and Pender.
Here are the counties in eastern North Carolina that are represented
by a Republican House member: Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Hyde, Onslow,
Pamlico and Pitt.
KEYWORDS: CONGRESSIONAL RACE by CNB