THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, October 17, 1994 TAG: 9410170042
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A5 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY DENNIS JOYCE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: NORFOLK LENGTH: Medium: 81 lines
Frustrating as it is, sending U.S. troops to brush back Saddam Hussein beats the shortcut approach that's on the minds of many Americans this week, says an assistant professor at Old Dominion University who has written a forthcoming book on America's role in the Persian Gulf.
Any U.S. campaign to get rid of the power-hungry Iraqi leader makes no more sense today than it did when President Bush faced pressure to chase after Saddam during the Persian Gulf war, said Steve A. Yetiv, an assistant professor of international studies at ODU.
Instead, the U.S. now must walk the most delicate of balances: keeping Saddam from invading his neighbors while leaving him enough power to hold Iraq together - a tough job with minority Kurds and Turks agitating to divide the largely Arab nation.
Going after Saddam on his own turf would mean a prolonged and bloody battle, said Yetiv, a 30-year-old former fellow and research affiliate at Harvard University whose book, ``America and the Persian Gulf: The Third Party Dimension in World Politics,'' is being published by Praeger early next year.
``People need to understand that Iraqi units and divisions will fight much harder to protect Baghdad than Kuwait,'' he said. ``This isn't Haiti, where a well-trained group of 100 soldiers probably could take the country. We're talking about a population that is not going to tolerate Western occupation.''
But more important to U.S. interests, Yetiv said, Saddam and a unified Iraq keep the military threat of neighboring Iran in check.
``People need to remember that in '80s, we feared Iran. Iran is still an aggressor. It has always wanted to dominate the Persian Gulf, since the days of the Persian Empire 2,500 years ago.''
Patience is likely to bring the greatest rewards for the United States: Saddam's own people have come so close to toppling him in recent years that the best plan is to let them keep trying.
Along with patience should come pressure to maintain the trade embargo on Iraq even as the two nations to which Saddam owes the most money - Russia and France - call for lifting it. Despite their claims, Yetiv said, Iraq may never come around to the terms of the Persian Gulf war peace treaty.
Saddam continues to threaten its neighbors, sponsor international terrorism and maintain a cadre of nuclear scientists, Yetiv said.
``If he is allowed to sell his oil on the market, guess what he's going to do? He's going to get back in the ballgame.''
The patience-and-pressure approach may mean a long wait: Napoleon had nothing on Saddam when it comes to self-preservation, Yetiv said.
``Napoleon once said that if you want to prevent the army from mounting a coup against you, keep them busy, keep them out of the barracks.''
And that, he said, is exactly what the Iraqi leader is up to with his troop movements in southern Iraq. That and applying his characteristic carrot and stick approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy - raising the stick of 80,000 battle-ready troops, then the carrot of compliance with a peace treaty he has been slow to accept.
Responding to Saddam's latest threat with U.S. forces, led by the Norfolk-based carrier George Washington, was President Clinton's only option, Yetiv said. But saber-rattling may be as far as the nation wants to go this time.
``We need to draw a line in Iraq beyond which we cannot go and wait for him to collapse internally.''
Yetiv is convinced the collapse will come.
``Saddam has an almost legendary knack for shooting himself in the foot. In September 1980, he invaded Iran and expected it to last six weeks. It lasted eight years, and his nation went from $30 billion in the black to $80 million in the red.''
Then, needing money and envious of Kuwait's oil fields and harbor, he touched off the Persian Gulf war in 1990.
``Again, he shot himself in the foot. In the crucible of history, these actions are going to come back to haunt him.'' ILLUSTRATION: DENNIS JOYCE/Staff
ODU professor Steve A. Yetiv says that with his troop movements in
southern Iraq, Saddam Hussein is following Napoleon's advice - keep
the army busy to prevent a coup.
by CNB