THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, October 18, 1994 TAG: 9410180314
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY DAVE ADDIS, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: NORFOLK LENGTH: Medium: 93 lines
Three weeks out from the Nov. 8 election, incumbent Democratic Rep. Owen B. Pickett holds a significant lead over Republican challenger Jim Chapman, according to a poll of voters in the 2nd Congressional District.
The poll showed Pickett's support at 51 percent to Chapman's 35 percent, with 14 percent undecided. It was based on telephone interviews Friday and Saturday with 432 voters in Norfolk and Virginia Beach.
The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 5 percentage points, meaning actual voting results could be 5 points higher or lower than the poll numbers. The survey was done for The Virginian-Pilot/Ledger-Star and WTKR-TV, Channel 3, by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc., of Columbia, Md.
While Chapman may be down, he cannot be counted out: More undecided voters are likely to turn to the challenger than the incumbent, pollsters said, and Chapman is sitting on substantially more money than he held at this point in 1992, when he lost to Pickett by 10 percentage points, 55-45.
``Generally, undecided voters break more strongly in favor of challengers than incumbents,'' said Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon, ``indicating that Chapman will probably cut the margin by Election Day.''
Chapman's supporters professed no discomfort at being 16 points down. ``We're not all that disappointed,'' said Mike McElwain, Chapman's campaign manager. ``If you look at a poll as a point on a graph, a snapshot of where the campaign is today . . . I'd say there's momentum out there and it's definitely coming to our side.
``If the election was held today,'' he said, ``maybe that's how it turns out. But the election is not for another three weeks. We still have a lot of campaigning to do.''
Pickett's people didn't read any momentum swing in the Mason-Dixon numbers. ``Those results correspond very closely with a benchmark survey we did in late June,'' said David Petts, a Washington-based pollster working for Pickett's campaign. ``We don't see anything to indicate that the race has changed over the last several months.
``We're very encouraged by it,'' Petts said. ``It shows the congressman continues to hold a lead in the race.''
The poll showed that Pickett's reputation after eight years in Congress is strong. When asked, ``How would you rate the performance of Owen Pickett as congressman?'', 14 percent rated him as ``excellent'' and 43 percent as ``good.'' Only 3 percent described his performance as ``poor,'' and 35 percent rated him ``fair.''
Pickett also holds an edge in available campaign funds, according to reports filed over the weekend by both candidates. Pickett had $216,765 in the bank as of Sept. 30, to Chapman's $93,894. Chapman has since received a $60,000 shot in the arm from the state and national Republican campaign organizations, which targeted the 2nd District as a race where the GOP believes it has a good chance of knocking off a Democratic incumbent. It is likely that both candidates have lowered their cash reserves considerably since the Sept. 30 closing date, as the campaigns began buying expensive blocks of television advertising time beginning in early October.
At this point in the 1992 campaign, Chapman reported having $17,000 on hand, although the GOP kicked in $50,000 for advertising in the final two weeks. Over the most recent three-month reporting period, Chapman was able to raise more in contributions than Pickett, $163,180 to $103,294.
Although Pickett had more money on hand, the financial reports show that Chapman could well outspend the incumbent if both campaigns drain their accounts by Nov.8. Chapman had spent $188,900 on the campaign through the year, including the cost of running a primary in the spring.
With cash on hand and the $60,000 GOP contribution, Chapman's spending could run over $340,000, even if no more funds were raised in the final three weeks. McElwain said the campaign might ultimately spend $450,000 in trying to unseat Pickett. He said Chapman spent about $186,000 on the 1992 race.
Pickett had spent $82,663 by Sept. 30. With the money he has on hand, Pickett has the potential to lay out more than $300,000 to keep his congressional seat.
The results of a Mason-Dixon poll on the 4th Congressional District candidates, Republican George Sweet and Democratic incumbent Norman Sisisky, will be released today and reported in Wednesday's newspaper. ILLUSTRATION: Graphics
Photos
WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?
2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: VOTERS' OPINION OF THE CANDIDATES
JANET SHAUGHNESSY/Staff
2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL
SOURCE: Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc.
[For complete graphic, please see microfilm]
KEYWORDS: CONGRESSIONAL RACE 2ND DISTRICT CANDIDATES
POLLS by CNB