THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, October 19, 1994 TAG: 9410190416
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY ROBERT LITTLE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 96 lines
With less than three weeks until judgment day for this fall's political campaigns, Democratic Rep. Norman Sisisky holds a 24-point advantage over Republican challenger George Sweet, according to a poll of likely voters in Virginia's 4th Congressional District.
The poll shows Sisisky with 53 percent of the vote, Sweet with 29 percent and 18 percent undecided.
Because of the number of undecided voters, Sisisky's hefty lead will probably shrink as the Nov. 8 election approaches, said Brad Coker, president of Maryland-based Mason Dixon Political/Media Research Inc., which conducted the poll.
``Today, I think Sisisky wins. But don't be fooled by the point spread. Almost everyone in the district knows who Sisisky is, has an opinion of him and probably knows whether they're going to vote for him.
``In cases like that,'' Coker said, ``the undecided vote tends to go to the challenger.''
The telephone poll, financed by The Virginian-Pilot and The Ledger-Star, WTKR-TV in Norfolk and WTVR-TV in Richmond, has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. That means actual voting results could be 5 points higher or lower than the poll numbers.
Sweet's aides said they were not discouraged by the poll - partly, they said, because their polls show a tighter race. Spokesman Bill Samson disputed the results, questioning whether the sampling of 438 potential voters mirrors the district.
Only 3 percent of the people polled had never heard of Sisisky, compared with 19 percent for Sweet. The Republican challenger said that figure shows six months of campaigning have paid off.
``When I started in May, nobody knew who I was,'' said Sweet, a Baptist minister who is running his first political campaign. ``We've always thought we would have toovertake him in the final stages of the race, and I think we're right where we need to be.''
Sisisky's campaign manager, Tim Shock, was even more enthusiastic.
``I think the numbers are terrific. We're not taking anything for granted, but we feel good about where we are.
``If he thinks he's right where he needs to be, then everyone agrees. We're all happy.''
Sisisky won every demographic category polled - particularly among black voters, who favored him 79 to 3 percent. African Americans make up about 28 percent of the 4th District, which includes Chesapeake, Suffolk and parts of Portsmouth, and stretches west almost to Charlottesville.
Only 5 percent of those polled felt that Sisisky, a congressman since 1982, has done a poor job on Capitol Hill, with 88percent rating him fair or better.
Sisisky has outspent Sweet 2-to-1 this year, according to finance reports filed last week with the Federal Election Commission. His campaign spent $293,033 before Sept.30, compared with Sweet's $138,567.
Sweet has raised more money this year, however, collecting about $207,000 - most of it from individuals. Sisisky raised $185,000 this year - most of it from political-action committees - and carried over money from earlier campaigns.
The report shows Sweet with almost $70,000 in the bank as of Sept.30, more than double his opponent. But Sisisky, one of the wealthiest members of Congress and said to be worth about $40 million, has financed his own campaigns in the past. ILLUSTRATION: Color photos
53% Sisisky
29% Sweet
18% Undecided
Staff graphic by JANET SHAUGHNESSY
4th Congressional District Poll
Source: Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc.
For copy of graphic, see microfilm
SENATE CANDIDATES' APPEARANCES TUESDAY
Tuesday's campaign schedule for the three candidates in
Virginia's U.S. Senate race:
J. MARSHALL COLEMAN: appearances in Culpeper; speech, editorial
board meeting and radio interview in Charlottesville; fundraiser and
community forum in McLean.
OLIVER L. NORTH: speech in Vienna; speech and appearances in
Fairfax; speech in Fredericksburg.
CHARLES S. ROBB: editorial board meeting and downtown appearances in
Charlottesville; appearances and editorial board meeting in
Lynchburg.
KEYWORDS: CANDIDATE CONGRESSIONAL RACE POLL
by CNB