THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, November 7, 1994 TAG: 9411070050
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A2 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: THE WASHINGTON POST
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium: 77 lines
Pentagon officials are warning that the military cannot absorb a $40 billion gap in defense spending over the next four years without a likely cut in troop levels that would jeopardize the Clinton administration's strategy of being able to win two regional conflicts nearly simultaneously.
The Pentagon is scrambling to close $20 billion of the projected gap by eliminating or postponing some weapons-modernization programs. Defense officials have sought early assurances from the Office of Management and Budget that the remaining $20 billion will not have to come out of Pentagon spending.
But White House budget officials have refused to commit themselves, preferring to keep their options open until December, when the drafts of all departmental budgets for fiscal 1996 are due.
``If we don't get the extra $20 billion, it will have serious implications on future force structure and ultimately on the Bottom Up Review plan,'' said a senior defense official. ``We've been saying to the White House: `If you won't be able to give us the $20 billion, tell us now, because we'll have to make some painful choices.' ''
President Clinton shifted more than $11 billion last year to his five-year defense plan to finance the cost of an unrequested military pay raise that was added by Congress in fiscal 1994. But spending constraints on the administration are tighter now as a result of congressionally mandated freezes on, presidential commitments to fund investments in education, social science and other areas and political pressure for deficit reduction.
To cover the remaining $20 billion Pentagon gap, the White House would have to reduce other domestic spending. There also is the possibility that the gap, much of which reflects higher-than-budgeted inflation over the next four years, could turn out smaller than Pentagon officials fear, making it easier to absorb in the defense budget.
The military services already are cringing at what they have been asked to do to save $20 billion. They have resisted recent Clinton administration pleas for more cuts in planned weaponry, and continue to argue for preserving such prized modernization programs as the Air Force's F-22 jet fighter, the Navy's next-generation attack submarine, the Army's new field artillery system and the Marine Corps' V-22 transport aircraft.
Nonetheless, to finance plans to increase pay and enhance ``quality of life'' benefits for military personnel, Pentagon leaders are preparing to announce a number of cancellations, production delays, reduced purchases and other adjustments in future aircraft, ship and other weapons programs later this month.
Many in the defense community have called into question the affordability of the administration's long-term military plan, particularly Clinton's commitment to hold the line on further cuts in forces. Overall, defense spending has dropped 25 percent since the Soviet bloc's collapse in 1990 and 35 percent since U.S. defense expenditures peaked in the mid-1980s. Although Clinton has proposed reducing defense spending another 11 percent over the next five years, he has pledged not to go below the $1.2 trillion his administration has budgeted for military spending between now and 1999.
The problem is that that amount increasingly appears insufficient to sustain the base-level force of 10 active Army divisions, 12 Navy aircraft carriers and 13 active Air Force fighter wings that was stipulated in the president's program. The costs of keeping U.S. troops engaged in places like Haiti, Bosnia, Somalia and the Persian Gulf - and ready enough to respond quickly to other world hot spots - have proven higher than administration officials had anticipated.
Up to now, defense officials have tried to preserve the base level of 1.45 million troops set in the president's plan and instead squeeze savings out of the weapons modernization accounts. Spending on modernization already has dropped 67percent since 1985, and active duty troops have declined 31 percent. There are fewer and fewer programs to cut, officials say.
KEYWORDS: MILITARY BUDGET DEFENSE BUDGET
by CNB