THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, November 9, 1994 TAG: 9411090544
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MARGARET EDDS, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium: 93 lines
What now for the man and his movement?
As Oliver L. North watched a three-year, $20 million dream evaporate Tuesday night, predictions for the future of perhaps the most polarizing and electrifying political figure in modern Virginia history ranged from ignominy to the presidency.
Former State GOP Chairman Donald Huffman of Roanoke predicted that North would run again for the Senate - this time against a fellow Republican who helped defeat him, U.S. Sen John W. Warner.
But North's campaign consultant, Mark Goodin, said there is ``very little'' chance that North will run for office again. ``You lick your wounds and go home,'' he said. ``You realize you did the best job you could. . . . This isn't his whole life.''
Others agreed that his defeat amid a Republican tide and against a wounded opponent may end his prospects for office - at least in Virginia.
``It would be hard for him to make a case - losing this year in this election - that there's another one coming up in Virginia he could win,'' said M. Boyd Marcus, a GOP consultant. But, given the breadth of North's support nationwide, ``he might still run for the presidency'' in 1996, Marcus said.
Those closest to North predicted the former Marine officer, whose Iran-Contra exploits captivated a nation, will continue as a private-citizen commander in a movement for conservative social change.
``He's got his business, his books, his news column. He's got his farm,'' said John Hager, GOP state treasurer and statewide co-chair of the North for Senate campaign. ``He's not going to get but so disappointed.''
While it ``would probably be tough for Ollie to run for state office again,'' he remains ``a celebrity of national stature. He could do almost anything he wants,'' said Hager.
One certainty, said Goodin, is that the former candidate will continue to raise money and rally support for other Republicans. North's 200,000-plus national mailing list is one of the most valuable commodities in national GOP politics.
Other Republicans with political ambitions were quick to argue that North's defeat does little to diminish the conservative movement that he represented.
``The movement doesn't go away,'' said Michael Farris, a national home-schooling advocate and former GOP candidate who is expected to run for Warner's seat in 1996.
Asked if North might run against him for the GOP Senate nomination, Farris smiled. ``That's possible,'' he said.
Some argued that Tuesday's defeat in a Republican year limits that prospect, however.
``Republicans lost a golden opportunity to unseat a Democratic senator,'' said Thomas Morris, the president of Emory & Henry College and a political scientist. ``A large number of Republicans would not want to run the risk of associating themselves too closely with Oliver North.''
North mobilized an army of supporters whose passionate devotion seemed unparalleled in Virginia politics. As he toured the state in a motor home dubbed ``Rolling Thunder,'' he was greeted by individuals who told him they'd named children in his honor, had placed his photograph on their bedroom walls, and - in the case of one Richmond suburbanite last week - asked questions such as: ``May I touch the hem of your garment?''
Analysts said North ran a near-perfect campaign during the early months of his bid, solidifying much of the Republican base and humanizing an image some found threatening. He was aided by Robb's near-invisibility of Robb during much of the summer and early fall.
But North's juggernaut stalled as November approached, partially because of a series of campaign-trail gaffes. Probably the most serious, the analysts said, was an impromptu statement two weeks ago in Roanoke that Social Security might be made voluntary.
``His inexperience as a candidate showed,'' said one moderate Republican who did not work in North's campaign.
``He ran well through the opening stages,'' echoed Marcus. But North, who also encountered open opposition from First Lady Nancy Reagan and a newly unified Democratic effort featuring former Gov. L Douglas Wilder, was less effective in the last three weeks, he said.
North's future probably remains with the power of his ideas, said Morris. ``He could become more of a movement leader,'' he said. Not unlike Jesse Jackson on the Democratic side, ``he could shift his focus to the Christian Coalition and try to bring about change in the larger social mores,'' he said.
As North told his supporters at the close of his concession speech: ``Our Congress needs people like you...they cry out for good people like you . . . that know if you keep your trust in the Lord and stand together and presevere, we can take back our government.'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photo
TAMARA VONINSKI/Staff
He's sure to keep rallying for GOP.
KEYWORDS: U.S. SENATE RACE VIRGINIA RESULTS ANALYSIS by CNB