THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1994, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, November 11, 1994 TAG: 9411110676
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY DALE EISMAN, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Long : 106 lines
The bleeding of the defense budget probably is over, but the military shouldn't expect any big cash transfusion from the Republican-controlled 104th Congress, partisan and independent analysts agreed Thursday.
``They've said they're going to increase defense spending,'' observed U.S. Rep. Norman Sisisky of Petersburg, a senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee. ``I'm with 'em. (But) I'd like to know where they're going to find the money.''
``One thing that hasn't changed is the shortage of money,'' agreed Sen. John W. Warner, the Virginian who will be the GOP's second-ranking member on the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Warner said that although he's eager to boost defense, ``I for onedon't want to increase the annual federal debt.''
Such sentiments are common among Republicans, who in the aftermath of Tuesday's election victories find themselves ``torn between the imperatives of deficit reduction on one hand and defense spending on the other,'' said John Luddy, a defense analyst for the Heritage Foundation.
The Republican victory could mean a delay in the next round of military base closures, which is scheduled for next year, some analysts said. Others disagree, noting that a bipartisan majority that defeated a bill this year to delay the process remains intact.
Two prominent base-closing opponents - South Carolina Republicans Strom Thurmond and Floyd Spence - are expected to head the Senate and House Armed Services panels, respectively, in the new Congress. Their state, and particularly Charleston, was hit hard by the 1993 round of closings; Spence this year sponsored the unsuccessful bill to delay the 1995 round.
Virginia, with a defense presence second only to that of California, is considered particularly vulnerable in the next round.
Robert Gaskin, a lobbyist for Business Executives for National Security, a pro-defense group, said some Republicans already are discussing a plan under that they would refuse to confirm any of President Clinton's nominees to the new Base Realignment and Closure Commission.
The commission now has only one member: Chairman Alan J. Dixon, confirmed just before Congress recessed last month. By year's end, Clinton is to select seven more. If none is confirmed, the closing process would be stopped.
``I was absolutely flabbergasted,'' when a senior Republican lawmaker disclosed the plan during a private chat this week, Gaskin said. With money tight, eliminating excess bases is one of the few ways to generate money for new weapons and programs the military needs, he said.
Luddy, whose group has lobbied against Clinton administration defense cuts, predicted that the next Congress will produce a 1996 military budget similar to the $360 billion program that Clinton proposed and Congress passed for 1995.
``That would be a good start,'' Luddy said. It would shelve defense cuts that many conservatives had expected Clinton to propose next year. And a level budget for defense in 1996 ``would lay the groundwork certainly, for some modest increases'' in later years if Clinton is defeated for re-election, he said.
Clinton's long-range defense plan calls for more spending cuts beginning with the 1996 budget. But Sisisky and Rep. Owen B. Pickett, a Virginia Beach Democrat who is a member of the Armed Services Committee, said they believe the administration was committed to keeping defense outlays stable.
``The military simply can't absorb the added costs associated with the Somalias and Bosnias and Rwandas and Haitis of the world,'' Pickett said, referring to peacekeeping operations to which Clinton has committed forces.
``Under any circumstances, we would have seen more money'' going to the defense budget, he added.
Even before the election, Pentagon analysts were suggesting they need at least $20 billion more than current budget projections for 1996 just to maintain the force levels the administration wants.
To at least partially bridge the gap, Deputy Defense Secretary John M. Deutch in August directed each military branch to prepare plans for cuts in virtually every major new weapons program. Included were the Air Force's F-22 fighter, the Marine Corps' V-22 tilt rotor airplane and a new Navy attack submarine.
Deutch explained then that the Pentagon would prefer delaying or canceling some of those programs to freezing military pay or cutting other efforts to improve the quality of life for service members.
Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon on Tuesday promised announcements during November on at least some of the systems to be delayed or eliminated as a result of the Deutch initiative. But several analysts suggested that in light of the election results, all cuts may be put on hold in anticipation of Republican efforts to direct more money to defense.
``Something like the Deutch memo is going to be getting a little bit harder look,'' said a defense aide to one senior House Republican. The V-22, in particular, should be safe, suggested the Heritage Foundation's Luddy. That aircraft would replace aging CH-46 Sea Knight helicopters on amphibious ships.
For Virginians, the shift to Republican control of Congress could enhance the clout of Warner and Rep. Herbert H. Bateman, a Newport News Republican who is on the House Armed Services Committee. But it figures to dilute the influence of such senior pro-defense Democrats as Pickett and Sisisky.
Because Thurmond, the new Senate Armed Services chairman, is 92 and at times seems feeble, many congressional insiders expect that Warner will wield unusual power.
But Gaskin - the business executives' lobbyist - warned that Warner's influence could be limited by his desertion of the GOP this year to back independent Senate candidate J. Marshall Coleman against Republican nominee Oliver L. North. He suggested that Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a former Navy fighter pilot and Vietnam-era prisoner of war, could emerge as the committee's dominant Republican.
KEYWORDS: MILITARY BUDGET DEFENSE SPENDING REPUBLICAN
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