THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, January 18, 1995 TAG: 9501180006
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A10 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 55 lines
Virginians normally hold onto their pocketbooks whenever the legislature is in session.
This legislative session, the winds of change are blowing so fiercely out of Richmond that Virginians will have to hold onto their pocketbooks with one hand and their hats with the other.
Blowing in the wind will be numbers, numbers and more numbers; statistics, statistics and more statistics. Republicans' numbers will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Democrats have been big spenders since time immemorial and that Virginians are heavily overtaxed. Democrats' numbers will prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Democrats are skinflints who have kept Virginia a low-tax state.
If ever there was a time to remember that numbers can skew the truth every bit as well as words, this is it.
Consider one simple example of numbers at play:
You have $400. Through an incredibly smart investment, you increase your holdings by 50 percent, or $200. Then, through an incredibly stupid investment, you decrease your holdings by 33 percent, or $200. Your holdings went up a whopping 50 percent and dropped a mere 33 percent, so you're ahead of the game, right? Of course not. You're back where you started.
Staff writer David M. Poole illustrated in a recent story that Democrats and Republicans can say diametrically opposite things with numbers and both be right.
Republicans paint a picture of taxpayers woefully burdened by high state taxes. ``Virginia's individual income-tax burden, on a per-person basis, is among the top third in the country,'' Allen said in a recent speech. One can only slap oneself atop the head and scream, ``Not the top third!''
Democrats will point out that the most widely accepted method of comparing state tax burdens is to take into account the complete mix of state and local taxes that residents pay in each state. Presto! Individuals in only four states pay lower taxes than Virginians, and one of those states is Mississippi, whose motto should be, ``We're Number 50!''
In other words, Virginia ranks both in the top third and the bottom 10 percent in taxes. We are doing terribly, and also terribly well.
Republicans say taxpayers need relief from burdensome state taxes. Democrats say cutting state taxes will necessitate increasing local taxes, so the overall burden, the one that counts, will change little.
Stay tuned, and hold onto your hat and pocketbook.
Keep in mind one of the great quotes about numbers, ``If a statistic is interesting, it's probably wrong.''
But a statistic does not need to be wrong to mislead. by CNB