The Virginian-Pilot
                             THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT 
              Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: Wednesday, January 18, 1995            TAG: 9501180007
SECTION: FRONT                    PAGE: A10  EDITION: FINAL 
TYPE: Editorial
                                             LENGTH: Long  :  106 lines

CRIME RATES ARE DOWN, BUT LOOK OUT BLOCK THE NEXT WAVE

The gratifying drop in crime in Norfolk is consistent with a nationwide trend. The Norfolk police report 10.5 percent fewer crimes in 1994 than in 1993. New York City, of all places, recorded a 20 percent drop in crime last year.

Crime in Norfolk declined significantly in all but two categories. Homicide and arson were the exceptions. Murders numbered 61 in 1994, one below 1993's 62. Although down by 29 percent since 1991 (when murders numbered 86), the pace of homicides - more than one a week - is troubling. The rise in arson (141 last year compared with 135 in 1993) is also no cause for complacency.

Police Chief Melvin C. High attributes most of the gains on the crime front to the city's Police Assisted Community Enforcement program, in which the police and other city agencies involve citizens in efforts to enhance neighborhood safety. He credits the growing willingness of women to prosecute their attackers with the 23 percent fall in forcible rape (157 in 1994 vs. 204 in 1993).

Aggressive policing as well as aggressive prosecution of rapists doubtless has contributed to the trend toward less crime. So have other anti-crime efforts. Alarm over criminality - record-high homicide rates especially - has stimulated collective and individual crime-fighting activity, from proliferation of police and private-security guards and prisons to incorporation of anti-theft devices in motor vehicles, more electronic-security systems in houses and apartments and more neighborhood-watch groups.

Americans are becoming less and less likely to be patsies for criminals. Tolerance for hoodlums is down and barriers are up. Metal detectors, long fixtures at airports, have spread to courtrooms and school systems. Some communities are walled in.

The hardening of public attitudes and energetic law enforcement are making a difference, just as tens of millions of ordinary Americans' adoption of gas-sipping automobiles and energy-efficient buildings dampened consumption of fossil fuels when energy prices soared in the 1970s.

But falling crime rates are a temporary phenomenon. A quickening tempo of vicious crimes is America's fate as we move toward the 21st century, no matter how many prisons we build. Why? A tidal wave of crime-prone youths from poor, single-parent homes is building. The numbers of such youths have declined in recent years - but the rise in vicious crimes from their dwindling ranks disturbed the nation. Youths are committing a large percentage of the murders that frighten us. Now, with more children marching toward teenhood, the outlook for ongoing gains in public safety and peace of mind is bleak indeed.

What to do? Holding more juveniles accountable for their crimes, which is happening, is essential. But so, too, are extensive private and governmental effort to steer children already born toward wholesome lives. Unless the multiple pathologies that thrive among concentrations of poor single-parent families are ameliorated, we can expect to endure years far bloodier than these.

The gratifying drop in crime in Norfolk is consistent with a nationwide trend. The Norfolk police report 10.5 percent fewer crimes in 1994 than in 1993. New York City, of all places, recorded a 20 percent drop in crime last year.

Crime in Norfolk declined significantly in all but two categories. Homicide and arson were the exceptions. Murders numbered 61 in 1994, one below 1993's 62. Although down by 29 percent since 1991 (when murders numbered 86), the pace of homicides - more than one a week - is troubling. The rise in arson (141 last year compared with 135 in 1993) is also no cause for complacency.

Police Chief Melvin C. High attributes most of the gains on the crime front to the city's Police Assisted Community Enforcement program, in which the police and other city agencies involve citizens in efforts to enhance neighborhood safety. He credits the growing willingness of women to prosecute their attackers with the 23 percent fall in forcible rape (157 in 1994 vs. 204 in 1993).

Aggressive policing as well as aggressive prosecution of rapists doubtless has contributed to the trend toward less crime. So have other anti-crime efforts. Alarm over criminality - record-high homicide rates especially - has stimulated collective and individual crime-fighting activity, from proliferation of police and private-security guards and prisons to incorporation of anti-theft devices in motor vehicles, more electronic-security systems in houses and apartments and more neighborhood-watch groups.

Americans are less and less likely to be patsies for criminals. Tolerance for hoodlums is down and barriers are up. Metal detectors, long fixtures at airports, have spread to courtrooms and school systems. Some communities are walled in.

The hardening of public attitudes toward criminals and energetic law enforcement are making a difference, just as tens of millions of ordinary Americans' adoption of gas-sipping automobiles and energy-efficient buildings dampened consumption of fossil fuels when energy prices soared in the 1970s.

But falling crime rates are a temporary phenomenon. A quickening tempo of vicious crimes is America's fate as we move toward the 21st century, no matter how many defenses and prisons we build. Why? A tidal wave of crime-prone youths from poor, single-parent homes is building. The numbers of such youths have declined in recent years - but the rise in vicious crimes from their dwindling ranks disturbed the nation. Youths are committing a large percentage of the murders that frighten us. Now, with more children marching toward teenhood, the outlook for ongoing gains in public safety and peace of mind is bleak indeed.

What to do? Holding more juveniles accountable for their crimes, which is happening, is essential. But so, too, are extensive private and governmental efforts to steer children already born toward wholesome lives. Unless the multiple pathologies that thrive among concentrations of poor single-parent families are ameliorated, we can expect to endure years far bloodier than these. by CNB