THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, February 23, 1995 TAG: 9502230329
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: NORTH CAROLINA
SOURCE: BY MASON PETERS, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 85 lines
President Clinton's popularity has continued to sink in North Carolina, and, if a presidential elections were held today, only 25 percent of all state voters would support him, a new poll showed Wednesday.
Forty-one percent of those polled said they would vote to replace Clinton next year and 34 percent said they were ``considering'' another candidate.
Although he has not declared his candidacy, retired Gen. Colin Powell, the victorious Persian Gulf War military commander, came out ahead of Kansas Sen. Bob Dole as the state's most favorably recognized candidate to run against Clinton.
North Carolina is one of 17 states that Clinton lost to George Bush in 1992, and ``it looks like it will be even more difficult'' for Clinton in 1996, the Mason-Dixon political survey reported.
In positive or negative name recognition, Powell had a 60 percent favorable response to Dole's 58 percent while Clinton ran third with 33 percent - a tie with Sen. Phil Gramm, a Texas Republican.
Clinton's unfavorable name response was 44 percent.
The other three GOP candidates - former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter and Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar - all had 15 percent or less name recognition.
When Clinton was matched against likely GOP candidates, Dole showed a 53 percent to 39 percent lead over the president; Powell led 54 percent to 31 percent, and Gramm had a 49 percent to 26 percent advantage.
``Without Powell in the field, Dole is clearly the early front-runner among Republican voters in North Carolina,'' said Del Ali, vice president of Mason-Dixon Media Research in Columbia, Md.
In a Republican primary - with Powell not in the race - Dole would capture 55 percent of the vote; Gramm 19 percent; and Alexander 7 percent, Ali said, with 19 percent undecided.
Clinton's sagging support in North Carolina was reflected in his decline in popularity since the 1992 national elections.
In February of 1992, his favorable rating in the state was 33 percent; his unfavorable rating, 17 percent.
Today, his favorable rating remains at 33 percent, but his unfavorable figure has risen to 44 percent, the survey showed. The highest North Carolina rating the president has received was 53 percent in July 1992.
``Clinton trails four of the leading potential Republican challengers and barely leads two who are known to less than half of the state's voters,'' Ali said.
Regionally, Northeastern North Carolina was only marginally more supportive of Clinton, with 32 percent of voters polled saying they would re-elect the president compared with the 25 percent who would support Clinton statewide.
Clinton was least popular in Charlotte, where only 21 percent of those polled said they would vote to re-elect him. In southeastern counties and also in the Greensboro-Winston-Salem area, only 23 percent said they would vote again for the president.
``The nature of this race will change considerably as other candidates get in and some current ones drop out,'' Ali said. ``Nonetheless, Dole is the announced GOP candidate with the strongest base in North Carolina, perhaps due to his wife's ties to the state.''
Elizabeth Hanford Dole is a Tarheel native and was a popular Cabinet officer in the Bush administration.
Ali said 809 registered North Carolina voters were questioned between Feb. 19 and Feb. 21. The sampling included 405 women, 404 men; 645 whites, 161 blacks; and 460 Democrats, 282 Republicans and 67 independents.
Sixty-seven percent of the blacks surveyed said they would vote to re-elect Clinton, while only 15 percent of white voters said they would. Twenty-seven percent of the Democrats said they would replace Clinton; 66 percent of the Republicans said they want him out.
Slightly less than half of the male voters said they wanted a new president and 37 percent of the women polled agreed.
``The margin for error is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points,'' Ali said, ``which means that there is a 95 percent probability that the true figure would fall within that range if the entire state population was sampled.'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photos
Colin Powell
Sen. Bob Dole
KEYWORDS: POLL by CNB