The Virginian-Pilot
                             THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT 
              Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: Wednesday, March 1, 1995               TAG: 9503010041
SECTION: DAILY BREAK              PAGE: E1   EDITION: FINAL 
SOURCE: BY RICKEY WRIGHT, STAFF WRITER 
                                             LENGTH: Long  :  124 lines

TAKE NOTE OF OUR VERY OWN GRAMMY PREDICTIONS

THE NATIONAL Association of Recording Arts and Sciences receives reams of criticism each winter for its hopelessly shortsighted Grammy Award nominations, which are based on largely conservative music-business figures' preferences - which in turn are predicated on what they like. Which is what they know.

Which isn't much, as has been pointed out year after year. Despite the hit-and-miss methodology and often awful picks of the Grammy committee, the little gramophones have at least conferred upon their recipients the mantle of class, the overall impression that the industry has smiled upon them and said ``This is good.'' The 38th annual awards air tonight at 8 on CBS.

However, in keeping with the Grammys' perverse sense of aesthetics, this season's Album of the Year category contains a recording so cheesy, so heinously aligned against the basic concept of good sense that it deserves to be sold only on the Home Shopping Network.

The disc in question isn't Eric Clapton's ``From the Cradle,'' Bonnie Raitt's ``Longing in Their Hearts'' or Seal's second self-titled collection. At worst, they're annoying and/or inoffensive. Nor is it Tony Bennett's ``MTV Unplugged,'' although Bennett has recorded more worthy sets.

If you're thinking, ``Hmm. . . that leaves `The 3 Tenors in Concert 1994,' '' you're right. Widely derided as a shallow knockoff of the original recording by Jose Carreras, Placido Domingo and Luciano Pavarotti in 1991, the second volume aims squarely at the lower end of the middlebrow spectrum. Those inhabitants must have swooned over its self-congratulatory mix of opera and popular song.

With that sound in mind, we select a few likely winners and make note of our own choices.

Album of the Year

Bennett's ``MTV Unplugged'' is by far the best of this stack. Still, although the well-chosen set list and Bennett's continued commitment and ebullience are nothing to sneeze at, does ``Unplugged'' really represent the year in music?

Should win: Bennett

Will win: Bennett

Record of the Year

Grammy's weird rules put Mary Chapin Carpenter's nearly 3-year-old ``He Thinks He'll Keep Her'' in this race. Unfortunately for her, one of the biggest tracks of all time, Boyz II Men's ``I'll Make Love to You,'' is also in this category. Carpenter will have to settle for another Female Country Vocal Performance victory, for ``Shut Up and Kiss Me.'' Despite its Oscar, Bruce Springsteen's ``Streets of Philadelphia'' will have a hard time beating the Boyz. Raitt's pro forma ``Love Sneakin' Up on You'' and Sheryl Crow's delightful, deceptively simple ``All I Wanna Do'' round out the category.

Should win: Crow

Will win: Boyz II Men

New Artist

New? Grammy's been sleeping on Crash Test Dummies, whose U.S. debut came in 1991 with ``The Ghosts That Haunt Me'' - not last year's ``God Shuffled His Feet.'' Likewise Green Day, who issued two albums on Lookout Records before unleashing the sextuple-platinum ``Dookie.'' Same for Crow, whose ``Tuesday Night Music Club'' came out in the previous eligibility period. Don't expect Green Day's post-teen angst to conquer, anyway - not with the less rowdy Ace of Base, Counting Crows, Sheryl Crow and Dummies at the party, too.

Should win: Crow

Will win: Crow

Female Rock Vocal Performance

Last year, the Academy deleted this category on the grounds that there weren't enough nominees. So Crow has exactly two qualifying tracks, ``All I Wanna Do'' and a B-side cover of Fats Domino's ``I'm Gonna Be a Wheel Someday.'' Liz Phair (``Supernova'') is a rock-press fave too profane for these voters; Sam Phillips (``Circle of Fire'') is a smart talent without the clout to carry the statuette away. So it's down to warhorses Melissa Etheridge (``Come to My Window'') and Bonnie Raitt (``Love Sneakin' ''). From there, figure Melissa had a better year, which won't stop now.

Should win: Phair

Will win: Etheridge

Alternative Music Performance

This album category is weighted toward wispy sensitivity - Tori Amos' ``Under the Pink,'' Crash Test Dummies' ``God Shuffled His Feet,'' Sarah McLachlan's ``Fumbling Towards Ecstasy'' - and balanced by the extremely loud sensitivity of Green Day's ``Dookie'' and Nine Inch Nails' ``Downward Spiral.'' ``Dookie'' is pretty good, the rest pretty tiresome. Bet the Grammys will feel it's time to recognize trembly singer/songwriter Amos.

Should win: Green Day

Will win: Amos

Female R&B Vocal Performance

One of the most solid categories this year, with strong performances by four divas offset by one from way out in left field, Me'Shell NdegeOcello's ``If That's Your Boyfriend (He Wasn't Last Night).'' Too bad for Me' that the other divas are all old hands: Anita Baker (``Body and Soul''), last year's Best New Artist Toni Braxton (``Breathe Again''), Aretha Franklin (``A Deeper Love'') and Gladys Knight (``I Don't Want to Know''). They used to call this the Aretha Award; it may be known as the Toni Award someday, but not yet.

Should win: Franklin

Will win: Franklin

Grammy notes: Nirvana is nominated in two categories, Rock Performance by a Duo or Group With Vocal (``All Apologies'') and Best Rock Song (ditto). Expect wins. But will Courtney Love show up to accept?. . . Williamsburg's Bruce Hornsby may take his fourth Grammy (out of seven nominations) for a collaboration with Branford Marsalis on ``The Star-Spangled Banner'' from the Ken Burns soundtrack ``Baseball.'' The category is Best Pop Instrumental Performance, which the pair won last year. . . Henry Rollins is up for Best Spoken Word or Non-Musical Album for his ``Get in the Van: On the Road With Black Flag.'' Other nominees are Burns' ``Baseball,'' Gregory Peck's ``The Bible (The New Testament),'' Kenneth Branagh's ``Hamlet'' and Ben Kingsley's ``Schindler's List.'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photos

Mary Chapin Carpenter...

Nine Inch Nails...

Photo

Tony Bennett will probably take home a Grammy for his album ``MTV

Unplugged.''

by CNB