THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, April 16, 1995 TAG: 9504140002
SECTION: COMMENTARY PAGE: J5 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: PERRY MORGAN
LENGTH: Medium: 69 lines
True or false? Newt Gingrich's first 100 days eclipsed but didn't diminish Bill Clinton. The president actually gained popularity while Gingrich bestrode the stage because he advocates kinder, gentler change than the blustery speaker of the House.
``True,'' say some seasoned observers. One of them, Democratic analyst Bob Beckel, thinks the Republican takeover of Congress has ``enhanced dramatically'' Clinton's chances of re-election. Trying to wheel and deal with old Democratic chieftains during his first two years, says Beckel, Clinton often looked ``weak and compromising.'' But against a Gingrich whacking at the welfare state, Clinton can be the empathetic protector of benefits. Using vetoes and the bully pulpit, he can champion the millions who still need a helping hand.
This argument has merits, and a huge weakness. It puts forth a president defined by contrast with others: He has no agenda of his own. The Republicans act; the president reacts. Their ideas frame debate in which the president says ``Me, too'' or ``Yes, but.''
This is not the vocabulary of leadership. A presidential candidate needs a big idea. Clinton's in 1992 was ``change,'' but the Republicans have seized that flag, helped not a little by the Clinton health reforms being cast within a huge new bureaucracy which he failed to sell even to his own party. But the Republicans have been helped more by their Contract With America and by the firm and unflagging leadership of Gingrich.
The polls, to be sure, indicate a public wariness of Gingrich, but he has become the formative figure in his party which, it's important to note, has its own divisions. Only yesterday, we were told the Senate would shun key elements of the Contract which, after all, was something ginned up by ``Newt'' and not something senior Senate Republicans had endorsed. Principle was involved as well as pride. Main Street Republicans like Bob Dole who had fought deficits for years thought premature the huge tax cut proposed by Gingrich. Some openly derided it, and there was significant opposition in the House as well. But Gingrich prevailed there, and opponents in the Senate - Dole to the fore - are changing their minds. Gingrich's Contract is becoming his party's.
Whatever happens in the Senate, the Republicans will be seen as the party with ideas and the ability to execute them. Even in defeat, the Democrats are divided, some throwing in with the GOP and others becoming calamity-howlers. If, as seems likely, the Democrats renominate Clinton, they're likely to bring to the campaign more popguns than artillery. So his re-election will be up to Clinton, as will be the proposition that voters yet again choose divided government and gridlock.
Beckel's theory of a Clinton defined favorably to his opposition assumes: (1) a Clinton capable of seizing public imagination, which nothing in his vote tally or in his governance suggests is possible; (2) that the public will be frightened by the reduction of benefits unavoidably involved in any serious scheme to balance the budget. The second assumption is possible, maybe likely, if Clinton resorts to fear-mongering or if the Republican scalpel cuts too deep too soon. But Bob Dole, Senate majority leader and front-runner for the Republican nomination, will have a big stake in making sure the Contract is perceived as one with - and not on - the people.
Considering the stakes and his experience as a broker, Dole may be able to project himself as a safe agent of change, co-opting Clinton while doing what majority leaders do. If driven much further to the right (and he's moved pretty fast with Gingrich and Phil Gramm on the prod), he may leave an opening for Clinton to come forth as the sensible moderate. MEMO: Mr. Morgan is a former publisher of The Virginian-Pilot and The
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