THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, April 16, 1995 TAG: 9504160186
SECTION: SPORTS PAGE: C1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE CARLSON, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 168 lines
Joe Smith is a work in progress in the eyes of NBA people, a potential masterpiece that still requires several chiseler's blows to achieve NBA artistry.
It may take a few years. But six NBA general managers, directors of player personnel or directors of basketball operations all gushed about Joe Smith the unfinished product, and the promise of what he will look like as a seasoned pro.
Smith, Maryland's All-American center from Norfolk, said Friday he was ready for the NBA. A half-dozen NBA types queried about Smith's potential all agreed he would be among the top five picks in the June 28 draft.
That doesn't mean he will make an immediate impact in the NBA, although a couple said it is possible.
``It generally takes every player time before you see the real package,'' Philadelphia 76ers director of player personnel Gene Shue said. ``It takes time before they develop the confidence and learn the pro game. In two years, you'll really see Joe develop. Once he gets a feel for it, he's going to become a player.''
There are questions to be answered and hurdles to be cleared along the way. Can Smith avert the professional obscurity most sophomores entering the draft have faced? Can he play facing the basket after spending his formative years with his back to the hoop? And can Smith make the required adjustments and move quickly enough along the professional learning curve to attain NBA stardom the team that drafts him will expect?
Only the chiseler's precision strikes will tell. THE SOPHOMORE JINX
History doesn't paint a promising picture of sophomores entering the NBA draft. Since the league was required by the courts to grant underclassmen admission to the draft beginning in 1971, 40 sophomores have declared themselves eligible.
Of those, 16 were first-round picks. Eight were among the first five players selected.
Only two - 11-time All-Stars Magic Johnson and Isiah Thomas - could be considered NBA superstars.
Chris Webber, Jason Kidd and Kenny Anderson may one day be regarded as stars. Shawn Bradley likely will not.
Many of the 16 flopped. Many turned into reclamation projects for other teams. Most should have stayed in school.
Most NBA people agree nearly everyone should.
Atlanta Hawks vice president and general manager Pete Babcock said the money is so ridiculous, he can understand why a player expected to be a high draft pick would leave school.
``But forget about the money, and hardly anyone should ever come out,'' Babcock said.
Orlando Magic general manager and chief operating officer Pat Williams said Smith would probably be the top pick if the draft were held today.
But Williams knows what history teaches about sophomores. He said Webber and Kidd appear destined to become stars comparable to Johnson and Thomas, but 4 for 40 isn't much of a batting average.
``Those four are all special,'' Williams said. ``Obviously we'll find out about Joe Smith. But that's the risk.''
A risk someone will be willing to take.
``That by itself is not going to stop you from drafting a player,'' Atlanta's Babcock said of the sophomore jinx. ``It depends on his talent and his potential down the road. Joe is too talented, there's too much upside.'' NO CENTER OF ATTENTION
There will be even more upside once Smith learns to go outside.
The panel of NBA officials agreed Smith is not a pro center. Even Smith practically shuddered at the thought of facing Orlando's Shaquille O'Neal during his press conference Friday.
Smith is 6-foot-10 - although some NBA folks question that - and a svelte 220 pounds. He is projected as a power forward in the NBA, possibly a small forward.
``He has quickness at the four (power forward) position, but he can take it outside or inside,'' Boston Celtics executive vice president and director of basketball operations M.L. Carr said. ``He's got the full package. Joe is a player. I'm sure there are situations where you can play him at the three (small forward).''
No one voiced any real qualms about Smith, but the NBA people all said he needs to bulk up to handle the likes of Karl Malone, Horace Grant, Charles Oakley and Larry Johnson.
``Those are guys who are quick and strong and terrific athletes,'' Atlanta's Babcock said. ``It's a baptism by fire. Almost every team has an experienced power forward, and most are big and strong and active.''
In addition to strength, Smith will need to work on his outside game. Some NBA officials question his shooting range, his ability to handle the ball and ability to defend quick players on the perimeter.
``He has an outside shot, but he hasn't shown any outside moves,'' Philadelphia's Shue said.
Minnesota Timberwolves general manager Jack McCloskey offered a dissenting opinion. He was the only one of the six interviewed who thought Smith was more suited to play small forward than power forward.
``Right now I think he'd be a great small forward in the league, with a chance as he matures to play at power forward,'' McCloskey said. ``I think he can do all that is required out there of him.
``I think the versatility he has will be a big plus for him. I've seen him put the ball on the floor. I've seen him go to the basket. I've seen him defend on the perimeter, because (the Terrapins) press a lot. He's very capable of doing anything.''
And capable, everyone agreed, of adjusting to whatever way a team needs to use him. Although he has played the bulk of his career with his back to the basket, the NBA officials said he can adapt and incorporate more skills into his game, not fundamentally change it.
``He's pretty good at what he does,'' Atlanta's Babcock said. ``I don't think he has to abandon that. He can continue to be a good low-post player, because he'll add experience and gain some weight.''
The list of what the pros like about Smith is much longer than the one of what he lacks.
Our NBA panel likes Smith's athleticism, tenacity on both ends of the floor and his work ethic. They are fond of his versatility, leaping ability and - from what they can gather so far - his personality and demeanor. They marvel at his competitiveness, quickness for his size and apparent love of the game.
``He's got an awful lot going for him,'' Babcock said. BUT MUCH TO LEARN
Still, there will be adjustments and revelations for Smith, who is 19 but will be 20 by the time he enters an NBA camp.
An NBA season is nearly three times longer than what he is used to. There is little time for highs and lows. He'll have to play through lots of nagging injuries. There's too much time and ample temptations. And it's a whole new league with different officiating, different tricks and new players to figure out how to play against.
``If he's a kid like Grant Hill who comes out eager to learn and figure out what this game is all about, he'll do well because he obviously has the talent,'' Boston's Carr said.
But, warns Denver Nuggets director of player personnel Mike Evans, ``talent at this level only takes you so far. Using fundamentals and understanding the game and knowing how to play the game is what takes you over the top.''
There are other intangibles as well. How will Smith handle being young, rich and on his own (although his mother Letha said she will live with him for a year)? The top five selections in last year's draft all signed multi-year deals worth an average of just over $5 million annually.
``The biggest adjustment is lifestyle,'' Orlando's Williams said. ``It's a man's world out there, and suddenly everyone is coming at you. Many times, that's the hardest part.''
There is no consensus about who the top five players in the draft will be, other than that Smith is one of them. Other underclassmen - specifically North Carolina's Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace, Massachusetts' Marcus Camby and Wake Forest's Tim Duncan - could figure into the mix should they come out.
The panel struggled to come up with someone who entered the league with a game similar to Smith's. One mentioned aspects of Smith reminiscent of Wayman Tisdale, another likened him somewhat to Buck Williams, but no one had a good comparison.
``I really can't think of anyone off the top of my head,'' Boston's Carr said. ``Of course, I can't think of anyone who plays like Michael Jordan, either.''
When the chiseler's work is done, that's the kind of gallery in which Smith would like to be. ILLUSTRATION: Color photo
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Graphics
DOLLAR SIGNS
OTHERS WHO'VE COME OUT EARLY
[For complete graphics, please see microfilm]
by CNB