THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, May 20, 1995 TAG: 9505190018
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
SOURCE: Keith Monroe
LENGTH: Long : 124 lines
In a frequently heard spin on current events, it's said the American people turned their backs on 40 years of Democratic rule in November and want sweeping changes made in Washington.
According to this view, the electorate is gung-ho for Newt's revolution, cheered the passage of the Contract With America, embraces Republican plans to balance the budget, shrink government and turn the world upside down.
The trouble with this scenario is, it ain't necessarily so. A series of polls taken since the November elections paint a somewhat different picture.
There's no question Washington is unpopular. People feel the government is too large, too overbearing and too expensive. But most people don't really spend their time obsessing about government or following political events with the avidity that partisans like to suppose. Today, many voters remain disaffected and disillusioned, not engaged and energized. The sweeping mandate of November only had a voter turnout of 37 percent.
Even when they do pay attention, people aren't easily pleased. In 1992, they fired George Bush. In 1994, they gave Clinton a resounding vote of no confidence. In 1996, can they be counted on to be any more enthusiastic about the new Republican regime?
Ironically, the same people who dislike government want it to solve nagging problems. Often they are problems beyond the ken of any government. Many Americans are worried about a country that seems increasingly dirty, dangerous and in decline. Global competition is making jobs hard to get and harder to keep. Health care costs a lot and a comfortable retirement may be a receding dream. Paying for the college education of the kids and the sunset years of the parents is creating an inexorable squeeze. And then there's increasing crime, decreasing educational performance and a much ballyhooed crisis in morality - the so-called cultural issues.
An angry and suspicious electorate is disappointed with Clinton who seems to nominate one kook after another and hasn't done anything discernible to improve their lives or restore the American Dream. In fact, 51 percent of Americans can't name a single thing Clinton has done. More than half think the country is off on the wrong track. But Bill and Hillary may not have to call the moving van to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. just yet.
Poll after poll suggests the Republicans are not viewed much more favorably. In November, Newt Gingrich was barely known to the public at large. Even today, only five in 10 know he's speaker of the House. And his greater familiarity doesn't mean he's well-liked. In several polls, he's less popular than Clinton.
As to the Contract With America, Republican polling expert Richard Wirthlin doubts that it ``swayed a single vote.'' Only one in three voters had heard of it and favored it at the time of the election, and those were overwhelmingly Republican to begin with. It may have increased turnout among the faithful. Still, as late as April, a New York Times/CBS poll found 62 percent had never heard of the Contract and only 31 percent approved of the job Congress was doing.
About the same time, a Washington Post/ABC poll showed 60 percent thought Congress was still practicing business as usual and two-thirds said Congress had accomplished little or nothing. A Times Mirror poll in mid-April found only 25 percent of the people satisfied with the way things were going; 60 percent still thought the country was losing ground on the serious problems before it.
Since much of the Contract deals with inside-the-beltway procedural issues like unfunded mandates, many people saw little connection to their everyday lives. In the same poll, only 20 percent said they expected to be helped by the legislation Republicans were passing. A third said they'd be harmed by it. Fifty percent of respondents said Democrats ``care more about people like me.''
Now that attention in Washington is turning to the specifics of balancing the budget by cutting government, Republicans will risk alienating more segments of the electorate. Poll results reflect that reality. By late April, in a Washington Post/ABC poll, 55 percent said the Republicans were more concerned about the interests of the wealthy than about the interests of average Americans or the poor.
Repeatedly, voters have let it be known that they are not interested in ideology so much as a government that works and that plays fair. So far, they don't seem persuaded that the Republican agenda matches their own.
Yes, they want welfare reformed. Two-thirds favor a cutoff of funds after two years. But almost 60 percent think that taking money away from teenage mothers goes too far.
Yes, they want government cut, but 78 percent in a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll in March said leave federal education spending alone; 58 percent wanted the school-lunch program to remain at the federal level.
Yes, 78 percent say they want a balanced budget. But when the possible costs are factored in, the enthusiasm wanes. A New York Times/CBS poll the last week in April found that more than half of those polled don't believe taxes and the deficit can be cut at the same time. And if it comes to a choice, cutting the deficit should come first.
A Times/CBS poll in March found 56 percent opposition to balancing the budget if it meant cuts in Social Security. A Times Mirror poll found that 62 percent opposed cutting Medicare to balance the budget. An American Hospital Association poll found that Social Security and Medicare are regarded as equally untouchable. If a politician promised not to cut Social Security and then cut Medicare, respondents were asked, would that be breaking the promise? A lopsided 64 percent said Yes.
All this suggests the electorate wants politicians capable of getting the country back on the right track, restoring the American Dream and looking out for the average guy. To some extent, voters want what cannot be - a return to the Happy Days of an idealized 1950s that never was.
The Christian Coalition is poised to hold Republicans' feet to the fire by demanding they pass its own contract of family issues. Let's suppose they get Congress to enact tax breaks for stay-at-home moms, to restrict abortion and put prayer back in public life. Will voters feel America has been saved and reward the Republicans? Not necessarily.
Voters have demonstrated little loyalty and may keep hiring and firing politicians every two years until they feel better about their prospects. Since many of the nation's problems are the result of large historical forces and cultural changes that politics-as-usual can't address, voters may not be feeling good for a long, long time.
Republicans promised easy answers, but following through will entail hard choices. The electorate may celebrate if the GOP makes deep cuts in government spending, sticks it to welfare recipients while cutting the capital-gains tax, locks up more criminals while cutting Medicare. But Republicans could be in for a shock if the great mass of middle-class voters decide they are no better off than when Clinton - and George Bush before him - were calling the shots.
Having promised better days, Republicans must deliver. If they can't, voters may not turn back to bankrupt Democrats. But they could become more alienated, turn to a populist third party or even start looking for a man on horseback. You can read the dissatisfaction in the polls and hear it every day on the radio, and it isn't going away. by CNB