THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, July 7, 1995 TAG: 9507070383
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: D1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MYLENE MANGALINDAN, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 78 lines
Key economic indicators released this week are sending mixed signals about Hampton Roads' economy. None seem to indicate that the region is heading toward recession or a boom.
The number of jobs in the region continued to increase through May, and home sales and housing starts appeared to bounce back.
The influx of students leaving school and entering the job market pushed May's jobless rate in Hampton Roads to 4.7 percent, or 34,560, said William F. Mezger, senior economist at the Virginia Employment Commission Thursday. But offsetting that was anincrease in the region's total nonfarm jobs, which rose to 14,500, or 2.3 percent, from May 1994.
``Hampton Roads generally followed seasonal patterns this month,'' Mezger said. ``It had an increase in employment but it also picked up more students in unemployment as the students came out of school. Services and trade (sectors) had been the strongest employers, but there were also good increases in the ports and manufacturing, even despite the downward trend in the shipyards.''
The commonwealth's jobless hit 156,300 in May. That's up to 4.4 percent in May from April's 4 percent jobless figure.
Government employment continued to slide statewide, falling 7,200 jobs to 603,900, because so many federal employees opted for early retirement, Mezger said.
Poquoson and James City County enjoyed the lowest jobless rates in the region at 2 percent. Fairfax had the lowest rate, 1.2 percent, in Virginia.
Local home sales and housing starts improved in May as mortgage rates continued to decline. But year-to-date sales totals fell short of last year's levels.
Pending home sales in Hampton Roads increased 3.6 percent to 2,265 in May 1995 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the Virginia Association of Realtors.
Pending home sales - houses that have sold but whose contracts have not closed - are the best local indicator of local sales of existing homes.
Existing home sales nationwide rose to an annual rate of 3.55 million in May from 3.39 million in April.
``I just feel that it has to be interest rates and maybe a little bit of renewed confidence that we're not in a recession and not going to go into a recession,'' said Paul Lown, president of Tidewater Association of Realtors and head of Heritage Realty, who attributed the improved monthly home sales to those factors.
Conventional 30-year mortgage rates have fallen to the mid-7 percent range from the 9.5 percent levels they hovered at around December last year, Lown said.
Year-to-date totals for local home sales through May 1995 fell to 8,969 - down 996 from 1994 levels through May.
Housing starts improved in May to 445 residential permits, valued at $39.2 million, for single-family houses in the seven main cities of Hampton Roads, according to the Builders and Contractors Exchange Inc.
That's up from April's 395 total.
Residential permits are the best indicator of local housing starts.
Housing starts through May 1995 declined 27 percent to 2,046, compared to the same period last year.
John Whaley, chief economist for the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission, suggested that pent-up demand for houses has been partly satisfied, explaining the drop in housing starts.
``It's certainly not good news,'' Whaley said. ``This is a fairly significant drop.''
``What seems to be happening all over is where residential construction has been off this year, commercial construction has been very, very strong,'' said Mezger.'' ILLUSTRATION: Complete jobless figures/D2
UNEMPLOYMENT IN VIRGINIA
SOURCE: The Virginia Employment Commission
[For a copy of the graphic, see microfilm for this date.]
KEYWORDS: UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT RATE JOBLESS by CNB