THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, August 5, 1995 TAG: 9508050311
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: NORTH CAROLINA
SOURCE: BY MASON PETERS, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 57 lines
August begins summer's peak season for hurricanes, and William Mason Gray, a Colorado State University weather expert, predicted Friday that this year is going to be even worse than he expected, with nine of the big storms developing.
In June, Gray said the 1995 season would see 12 tropical storms, with eight of those becoming full-blown hurricanes.
Now the meteorologist, who has an international reputation for the accuracy of his forecasts, is even gloomier.
New data show that 16 tropical storms will be spawned, and nine - not eight - of them will turn into full-blown Atlantic hurricanes, Gray said.
Three will be major storms, he added.
This will be ``an extremely active hurricane season,'' Gray said in his updated forecast, issued from Fort Collins, Colo.
Hurricane Erin was the second named hurricane and the fifth named tropical storm of the 1995 season, said Steve Taylor at the National Weather Service station at Newport, N.C. Allison, a weak Category 1 hurricane, was the first named storm of the year.
If Gray's new forecast is right, there will be seven more named hurricanes yet to come from the 16 tropical storms that Gray thinks will boil out of the Atlantic.
Gray and his Colorado State University team of weather scientists base their predictions on a complicated formula built around rainfall in West Africa, the presence or absence of an El Nino current off the west coast of South America, and the direction of the high-altitude winds that encircle the Earth.
A major factor controlling hurricane development in the Atlantic appears to be the appearance of a warm El Nino current along the coast of Peru. Because the warm waters usually arrive from the Central Pacific Ocean around Christmas, the phenomenon is called El Nino, after the Christ child, by Peruvian fishermen.
This year, El Nino has all but dissipated, which has encouraged the formation of more hurricanes off the coast of West Africa, Gray said.
Gray's latest prediction also calls for a ``Hurricane Destruction Potential rating of 90'' for the 1995 season.
Typical hurricane destruction potentials are rated at 68, and the average of the past four years has been 41.
Gray emphasized that he does not know where the expected hurricanes will make landfall.
Gray also calls for 30 hurricane days this summer, when Atlantic storms will attain winds of 74 miles per hour or greater. The new forecast also calls for 65 tropical storm days with winds of 39 miles per hour or greater.
Gray and his team issue hurricane predictions in June, August and November. by CNB