THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, August 9, 1995 TAG: 9508090004
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Short : 47 lines
The candidate count for the Virginia Senate race this fall favors Republicans by a significant margin.
Although the Democrats hold a 22-18 edge in the Senate, they have no candidates in 11 of the fall races, while the Republicans lack candidates in only five.
Thus, Election Day will dawn with 11 Republicans and five Democrats as good as elected and 24 seats to be decided - presuming no longshot upsets by independents.
Despite the high stakes, as Republicans attempt to control the Senate for the first time in modern history, only 60 percent of the races - 24 of 40 - will include both Republican and Democratic candidates.
Republicans need 21 seats to control the Senate. Democrats can make do with 20, because the lieutenant governor, a Democrat, votes to break ties.
Simple math shows that to hold 21 seats, Republicans must win 10 of the 24 contested races - only 42 percent.
What's worse for the Democrats, their 22-18 edge in the Senate might as well be 21-19. That's because Democrat incumbent Elliot Schewel from Lynchburg is stepping down and Republican Stephen Newman, currently in the House, is considered a likely victor.
Here's the good news for Democrats. Generally incumbents have an advantage over challengers. For the 24 contested races, Democratic incumbents outnumber Republican incumbents 15 to 7, and there are no incumbents in two of the contested races (including the one Newman is favored to win).
But here's more good news for Republicans: If their seven incumbents in contested races all win, and if they prevail in both contested races without incumbents, they can gain control of the Senate by defeating a single Democratic incumbent - one of the 15 in contested races.
The numbers are intriguing; the race, close; the stakes, high.
Numerically speaking, matters look better for Democrats in the 100-member House. They hold a 52-47 edge over Republicans and are fielding 80 candidates, only four fewer than Republicans. The lone independent incumbent is unopposed. by CNB