THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, August 18, 1995 TAG: 9508180580
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 137 lines
Don't untape those windows or empty those bottles of emergency water just yet.
Hurricane Felix isn't gone. It just curled up a safe distance off the Virginia coast Thursday, apparently content to sit there and annoy coastal residents through the weekend - and possibly beyond.
Where it will go, and when, is simply anyone's guess.
``I don't see anything to push it back to the coast just yet,'' said veteran hurricane forecaster John Hope of The Weather Channel in Atlanta. ``But I don't see anything out there that is going to push it very far in any direction.
``It will very likely be not too far from where it is right now two or three days from now,'' Hope said.
Officially, Felix is forecast to spin around in a small loop over the next three days, remaining 200 or so miles offshore - close enough to make for windy days and maintain rough seas, but far enough away to be easily forgotten.
That's just dandy for some residents who have grown sick of being tormented by the unpredictable storm. But while they may want to dismiss the fear of danger, Felix may not have given up all his lives.
``It really is like a cat,'' said Jim Talbot, Norfolk's deputy coordinator of emergency services. ``It's always ready to pounce.''
Felix - a minimal hurricane that was barely maintaining its status with winds of 75 mph - was moving all over the compass Thursday: at 5 a.m., it was heading north-northeast; at 8 a.m., west-southwest; at 11 a.m., east-northeast; at 2 p.m., north-northeast; and at 5 p.m., east-northeast again.
It also was slowly retreating from the coast, taking its clouds and rain bands with it. At 8 a.m. Thursday, it was 150 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras. Twelve hours later it was 260 miles east-northeast of the cape.
As a result of this movement, the National Hurricane Center lowered the hurricane warnings Thursday morning, posting a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning instead.
The warning and watch are likely to remain until Felix turns away or dissipates - although it would be unusual for the storm to just sit in one place and twirl itself into oblivion without some other weather system hitting it first. No other system was in sight late Thursday.
The National Weather Service office in Wakefield said the storm is expected to move erratically over the Atlantic during the next 72 hours with no landfall anticipated. ``However, a westward drift would bring Felix close to southeast Virginia,'' the Weather Service warned. And as long as it hovers offshore, it will continue ``to produce a prolonged period of high winds, beach erosion and flooding along the immediate coast.''
Winds were still gusting along the coast late Thursday. In Virginia Beach, gusts were clocked at 37 mph; on Chincoteague, sustained winds of 31 mph were recorded.
Probability forecasts for the storm reflected the uncertainty of its future. The National Hurricane Center said there was a 13 percent chance of its eye coming ashore within 60 miles of Norfolk or Cape Hatteras any time up to Sunday afternoon; but there also was a 14 percent chance of it steering to Atlantic City, N.J., and a 13 percent chance it would go to New York City.
Computer models used by the Hurricane Center were equally inconclusive, owing in part to the uniqueness of this storm. All place the storm due east of Norfolk on Sunday, but one model then sends it flying to the northeast. Another has it heading southwest to the Outer Banks. A third sends it toward the Chesapeake Bay.
It's a computerized crapshoot.
``But we can't dismiss any of these possibilities at all,'' Hope said in a telephone interview from Atlanta.
Talbot and emergency officials up and down the coast warned Thursday that people should be prepared to get ready again should the storm take a renewed track toward the coast.
``Any time we have a hurricane within several hundred miles of the Virginia-North Carolina coast, we must never relax our guard,'' a weary Talbot said Thursday afternoon after four days without much sleep.
He rested his chin in his hand as he stared at a map showing the huge wind fields around Felix. ``History has taught us many times that these storms have a mind of their own. Felix is verifying that warning.''
One need only look back at other hurricanes that have approached the region and then turned away, only to swing back in a loop and threaten the coast once again.
That kind of erratic behavior bothers Talbot.
``Any time we get a period of weak steering currents, we always have that possibility of a storm returning,'' he said. ``Until we can see some definite changes in the atmosphere, we need to remain on guard.''
And when Felix does go away, the hurricane season won't be over. In a year when the Atlantic has already produced seven hurricanes and tropical storms, the busiest part of the season is yet to come.
Fasten your seat belt. ILLUSTRATION: Graphics
KEN WRIGHT/Staff
TWO SCENARIOS FOR A LOOPING HURRICANE
[For complete graphic, please see microfilm]
HISTORY'S HURRICANE LOOPS
While most hurricanes charge ahead on a fairly stable course,
many take unusual twists and turns, and some loop back over their
own paths.
That has happened several time with hurricanes that have affected
the mid-Atlantic coast. A few examples:
1897 - In the years before hurricanes were named, this minimal
storm developed in the Bahamas and steered almost due
north-northeast, far offshore as it passed the Virginia Capes. Then
it suddenly turned counter-clockwise, first toward the mouth of the
Chesapeake Bay and then south over the Outer Banks before finally
returning to sea and heading northeast into oblivion.
Ginny, 1963 - After forming just north of Haiti, the storm
steered north as a minimal hurricane. But then it arced toward the
Outer Banks, and its winds surged to near 90 mph. Officials readied,
and people fled. But the storm looped around and crossed back over
its own path, steering south. It made a larger loop, heading first
toward Florida then paralleling the arc of the coast from central
Florida to North Carolina, again threatening the Outer Banks. This
time, however, it suddenly cut east and then northeast and away.
Doria, 1967 - After forming off central Florida, the storm first
headed southwest at the coast and then flip-flopped to the
northeast. It moved deep into the Atlantic, gained strength and made
yet another sharp turn heading due west toward Virginia Beach with
80 mph winds, turning south across the Outer Banks.
Ginger, 1971 - One of the queens of looping, the storm was all
over the map, first heading far east into the Atlantic before
turning back west, making one small loop inside of a second larger
one. Then it turned northwest, coming ashore in the Carolinas with
75 mph winds. It went north into Virginia and turned back east,
crossing just north of Norfolk and back out to the Atlantic.
Danielle, 1992 - The storm was heading northeast well off the
Carolina coast when it made a tight loop - like that forecast for
Felix - and turned northwest. It skirted 25 miles off Virginia
Beach, causing moderate tidal flooding in Hampton Roads and some
structural damage at Sandbridge.
KEYWORDS: HURRICANE FELIX by CNB